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Articles by 思考派
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What Is True Long-Termism?
Li Zhilong, chairman of Hunan Sunshine Wine Co., Ltd., reflects on the baijiu industry's shift from 'capital carnival' to 'overcapacity,' advocating a return to quality and cultural value. He emphasizes building brands over selling products, fostering a community of shared interests among manufacturers, distributors, and consumers, and using social responsibility to sustain long-term brand growth.
思考派Import Whiskey Tariff Cut to 5%: How Does the Liquor Market Feel?
According to a recent announcement by the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council, the temporary import tariff rate on whiskey will be reduced to 5% starting February 2, 2026. This adjustment, following a hike to 10% in February 2025, is expected to have varied impacts on the market, benefiting high-end brands while having limited effect on mid-to-low-end products and domestic whiskey.
思考派The Next Five Years: Who Will Survive and Who Will Be Eliminated?
China's baijiu industry is bidding farewell to high-speed growth and entering a deep adjustment phase of 'stock competition plus structural upgrading,' with volume declining and prices rising. The industry is undergoing comprehensive restructuring in ecology, marketing, and distribution channels, with consolidation accelerating toward leading players and digitalization disrupting traditional models.
思考派Beer Supply Chain Battle: One More Minute Faster, One More Chance to Win
The beer industry is undergoing decentralization. With Youbu Lao opening over 2,000 stores through diversified formats, Xinbach establishing quality moats with oak-aged beers, and Jinxing Beer creating 'Chinese-style craft beer,' competition is shifting from scale to supply chain speed and consumer-centric innovation.
思考派Five Judgments on 2026 Liquor Industry Trends
This article provides a comprehensive, macro-level analysis of the development trends in China's baijiu industry in 2026. The author believes that the industry will complete its cyclical bottoming out in 2026 and enter a new stage of recovery characterized by structural growth. Growth drivers will shift from the traditional dual engine of volume and price to a deep focus on value concentration, category innovation, channel restructuring, and global expansion. The industry is expected to achieve moderate growth of 4%-5% in total scale, with market concentration (CR5) historically crossing the 50% threshold, marking the full solidification of an oligopolistic competitive landscape.
思考派Lessons from 30 Years of Coffee Development for Craft Beer
How should China's craft beer industry chart its future? The 30-year evolution of coffee offers a valuable playbook. In the 1990s, Nestlé introduced instant coffee, sparking initial consumer adoption—simple, convenient, but lacking in flavor. In 2000, Starbucks brought freshly ground coffee to the masses, offering not just a fresh, flavorful cup but also a 'third space' experience. Since 2015, emerging brands like Luckin Coffee and Cotti Coffee have liberated coffee from the 'third space,' making affordable freshly ground coffee accessible through high-density street-side stores.
思考派Revenue and Profit Show 'Five Increases, Two Decreases': What's Behind the Divergence in the Beer Sector?
After the release of third-quarter reports, beer and baijiu listed companies show a clear divergence. Unlike the decline in total revenue and net profit of baijiu listed companies, the seven A-share beer listed companies achieved growth in both total revenue of 62.052 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.435 billion yuan in the first three quarters. Specifically, despite overall divergence, leading company Tsingtao Brewery saw growth in both revenue and profit, while mid-tier companies like Yanjing Beer and Chongqing Brewery developed steadily through product upgrades and channel optimization.
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