Source | Yunjiu Toutiao ID | YJTT2016 Author | Thinking School
After the disclosure of third-quarter reports, beer and baijiu listed companies show a clear divergence. Unlike the decline in total revenue and net profit of baijiu listed companies, the seven A-share beer listed companies achieved total revenue of 62.052 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.435 billion yuan in the first three quarters, both achieving growth. Specifically, despite overall divergence, leading company Tsingtao Brewery saw growth in both revenue and profit, while mid-tier companies like Yanjing Beer and Chongqing Brewery developed steadily through measures such as product upgrades and channel optimization, laying a solid foundation for beer industry growth. Overall steady growth vs. individual divergence As an FMCG, beer consumption is highly correlated with social retail data. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to September, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 36.5877 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%; catering revenue reached 4.0989 trillion yuan, up 3.3% year-on-year; cumulative beer production of enterprises above designated size was 30.952 million kiloliters, up 3.7% year-on-year. The moderate growth in social retail and catering confirms sustained consumer vitality, laying a solid foundation for beer companies' growth. A research report from Soochow Securities believes that the resilience of mass demand is key to beer companies' performance growth: the faster growth of disposable income among middle-income groups, and the better performance of social retail and catering in core provinces compared to high-tier cities like Shanghai and Beijing, both indicate strong resilience in mass consumption power, providing good support for beer demand positioned at mainstream mass prices. While demand recovers and the market grows, the divergence among listed beer companies is also intensifying. Among the seven A-share listed beer companies, five achieved revenue growth, with *ST Lanhuang (Lanzhou Yellow River) leading at 23.35% growth, while Chongqing Brewery and Huiquan Brewery saw slight declines; in terms of net profit, among the five companies with year-on-year growth, ST Xifa (Lhasa Beer) grew at a rate as high as 503.98%, while among the two declining companies, *ST Lanhuang led with a decline of 49.81%. Specifically, beer leader Tsingtao Brewery achieved cumulative product sales of 6.894 million kiloliters in the first three quarters, with net profit for the first three quarters exceeding 5 billion yuan for the first time, setting a historical high. The gradual rollout of product lines such as pure draft beer in mid-to-high-end catering channels is driving further upgrading of Tsingtao Brewery's product structure. According to the financial report, in the first three quarters, Tsingtao Brewery's main brand achieved sales of 3.99 million kiloliters, up 4.1% year-on-year; mid-to-high-end products achieved sales of 2.935 million kiloliters, up 5.6% year-on-year, showing significant results in structural optimization. Among the top five beer companies, Yanjing Beer ranked first with a 37.45% growth in net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company, significantly improving profitability. Large single products such as Yanjing U8, Yanjing V10 White Beer, and Fresh Beer 2022 continue to gain momentum, further enhancing the brand's market influence and product competitiveness. Minsheng Securities believes that Yanjing U8's nationalization and omni-channel layout will continue to deepen, and with different market stages in different regions, growth can be sustained; its production, sales, and supply chain are expected to continue improving comprehensively, with a clear path for profitability enhancement. Among the seven listed beer companies, Chongqing Brewery is the only one with both revenue and net profit declining. As a former "top performer" in the A-share beer sector, after merging Carlsberg China assets, its performance has long been stable among the top four in the domestic industry, but in this third-quarter report, it has been overtaken by Yanjing Beer. From the third-quarter report data, Chongqing Brewery's high-end (above 8 yuan) product revenue was 7.715 billion yuan, up about 1.18% year-on-year, but its mainstream (4-8 yuan) and economy (below 4 yuan) price band products saw revenue declines of 1.66% and 1.21% year-on-year, respectively. The slight growth in high-end business failed to effectively offset the downward pressure from mainstream and economy products, dragging down the company's performance. Overall, in the first three quarters, the beer industry achieved steady growth against the backdrop of consumption recovery, presenting a pattern of "steady growth at the top, follow-up in the middle, and individual divergence," and industry concentration may continue to increase. Premiumization becomes the competitive watershed Premiumization in beer has become a battleground for the industry. From the overall performance of the third-quarter reports, Tsingtao Brewery and Yanjing Beer delivered impressive results thanks to steady growth in their high-end businesses. In contrast, Chongqing Brewery, with relatively weak growth in its high-end business, is already showing signs of falling behind. The performance divergence among listed beer companies indicates that the core trend of premiumization in China's beer industry has not changed and has become key for leading companies to capture market share and widen the gap in the next round of competition. In terms of growth rates, high-end products of leading companies mostly saw single-digit growth in the first three quarters. This means that beer premiumization has shifted from "rapid scale expansion" to "deep cultivation of quality and experience," and companies are no longer competing solely on growth rates but on a comprehensive contest of product innovation, scenario adaptation, and brand premium capability. Beer marketing expert Fang Gang believes that beer premiumization will continue and is far from reaching its ceiling. Unlike the high double-digit growth in the past incremental stage, today's premiumization is no longer simply about price increases; growth may slow down, and the pace will be more moderate. From a market demand perspective, diversified demand is exploding, with healthy categories such as non-alcoholic, low-sugar, and probiotic beers growing rapidly. Craft beer is accelerating market penetration thanks to its rich flavors, personalized brewing, and scenario adaptability. Co-branded and limited-edition products that also carry social attributes are becoming new favorites, providing broad market space for beer premiumization. Senior researcher and General Manager of Zhiqu Consulting, Cai Xuefei, believes that behind the premiumization of beer consumption is the development of quality and specialization. As overall consumer awareness matures and becomes more personalized, consumers have more diverse demands for high-quality beer consumption, including craft beer. In addition, the popularity of air conditioning and heating has broken the seasonal boundaries of consumption scenarios such as barbecue and hotpot, potentially pushing beer into a year-round peak sales cycle. This change places new demands on the beer industry: it needs to further enrich the flavor matrix to meet diverse consumption needs, continue to increase investment in mid-to-high-end new product launches and optimize product structure, while closely following the trend of younger consumers to tap growth potential, opening up more possibilities for the industry's premiumization and diversification. Instant retail explosion Instant retail is becoming a new growth point for beer consumption. Data previously released by Meituan Flash Purchase shows that in 2024, the instant retail market for alcoholic beverages was close to 25 billion yuan, and it is expected that by 2027, penetration will reach 6%, with a market size of about 100 billion yuan, a compound annual growth rate of 53%. Beer, with its high immediacy, low portability, and high frequency of nighttime consumption, has become one of the core categories. Listed beer companies have already launched multi-dimensional layouts in instant retail: Tsingtao Brewery entered early, launching 7-day draft beer to meet instant consumption needs; Yanjing Beer collaborated with channels such as Waima Songjiu and JD Wine World to promote its large single product U8; China Resources Beer partnered with platforms such as Alibaba, Meituan Flash Purchase, JD.com, Ele.me, and Waima Songjiu to create exclusive craft beer for instant retail... Wang Yijun, Director of Instant Retail Operations at Tsingtao Brewery Co., Ltd., said at an event in October: "Since Tsingtao Brewery first started laying out instant retail, it has been in a state of rapid growth. Currently, the growth rate in first-tier cities has slowed, but the growth potential in lower-tier markets is huge. Third- and fourth-tier cities are still growing at a relatively high rate, and there is huge room for growth in the future." The rapid growth of instant retail for beer companies is the result of adapting to changes in consumer demand. Contemporary consumers' consumption habits have shifted from "planned purchasing" to "instant decision-making," with fragmented and spontaneous drinking needs increasing. Instant retail, through the short-chain model of "online ordering + local delivery," precisely responds to scenarios such as nighttime gatherings, watching games, and family drinks, perfectly solving consumers' core demand for "instant gratification" and enhancing user stickiness. For beer companies, instant retail is not only a sales channel but also an important scenario for brand communication and new product incubation. Companies can precisely reach young consumer groups through platforms, use interactive marketing to increase brand exposure; customize exclusive products for instant consumption scenarios, or introduce high-end product lines to optimize product structure and enhance premium capability. Food delivery has already deeply reshaped the development landscape of the catering industry, and the channel innovation and consumption scenario reconstruction that instant retail brings to the beer industry is just beginning. There is still huge penetration space and growth potential in the future. Leading companies are leveraging their strengths and accelerating their layouts. If premiumization is accelerating divergence, then instant retail may become another key force reshaping the industry landscape.