Source | Yunjiu Toutiao
Currently, China's baijiu industry is bidding farewell to the high-speed growth cycle and entering a deep adjustment phase of "stock competition + structural upgrading." The pattern of declining volume and rising prices is set in stone, and the industry ecosystem, marketing system, and distribution channels are undergoing comprehensive restructuring.
The overlapping effects of consumer demographic shifts, deepening health awareness, and tightening policies are driving continuous contraction in industry capacity and widening price band divergence. The sub-premium market is in trouble, while premium and mass-market price bands show a polarized trend, with industry concentration accelerating toward the top players.
At the same time, under the impact of digitalization, traditional marketing models are on the verge of disruption. A large number of practitioners face transformation or exit, distributors and independent tobacco and liquor stores are counting down to elimination, and the channel landscape is rapidly reshuffling. In this industry transformation, corporate fortunes are diverging significantly; only those who precisely grasp trends and build core capabilities can navigate the cycle.
This article will analyze the industry's current situation and future direction from three dimensions—total volume changes, marketing transformation, and channel reform—and explore survival and breakthrough paths for different enterprises.
Total Volume Continues to Shrink Declining Volume and Rising Prices Are Certain, Structural Divergence Intensifies
The "shrinking volume" trend in the baijiu industry has entered deep waters. According to the 2024 annual statistical bulletin of the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, China's baijiu production capacity reached a historical peak of 13.5836 million kiloliters in 2016. By 2024, the output of enterprises above designated size was only 4.145 million kiloliters, a decline of approximately 69.5% from the peak. Considering the spread of health awareness and the generational shift in core consumer groups, consumption volume will continue to decline at an average annual rate of 3%-5% over the next five years.
There are three core driving factors:
First, the impact of consumer demographic shifts. National Bureau of Statistics population data shows that the core consumer group for high-proof baijiu (ages 45-65) is decreasing by approximately 8 million people annually. A 2025 media survey indicated that the drinking penetration rate among Generation Z (born 1995-2009) is only 28.7%, with less than 5% preferring high-proof baijiu, while acceptance of low-alcohol drinks and fruit wines exceeds 60%.
Second, the deepening of healthy consumption concepts. The World Health Organization's "2024 Global Health Statistics Report" shows that Chinese residents' health awareness score rose from 62 in 2018 to 78 in 2024, with 83% penetration of the "drink less, drink better" mindset. The share of "high-frequency social drinking" in alcohol consumption scenarios dropped from 45% in 2018 to 22% in 2024, while "low-frequency tasting" rose to 58%.
Third, continued policy tightening. The newly revised "Regulations on Practicing Frugality and Opposing Waste in Party and Government Organs" in 2025 explicitly states that "alcoholic beverages shall not be provided at official receptions." Although government-related consumption has fallen to 4.2%, the ripple effect of shrinking "government-driven business" scenarios has led to an 18% decline in terminal sell-through for Shui Jing Fang in the 500-800 yuan price band.
Combining JD Super and Nielsen retail monitoring, we have compiled evidence of price band divergence.
Premium market (above 1,000 yuan): Head brands such as Moutai and Wuliangye, leveraging resource scarcity and collectible attributes, and supported by an annual increase of 402,000 high-net-worth individuals (Hurun's "2024 China High-Net-Worth Individuals White Paper," with investable assets over 6 million yuan), reached a market size of 156 billion yuan in 2024. It is expected to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 2.6%.
Sub-premium market (500-800 yuan): This has become a "death zone." In 2025, this price band had the highest degree of price inversion, with 72% of products seeing wholesale-retail price inversion in the first half of the year. Combined with price pressure from premium brands, the industry estimates the market size will shrink by 40% over the next five years. Of the 237 pan-national brands added during the 2022 sauce-flavor baijiu boom, 49 have already exited, and most of the rest will exit in the coming years.
Mid-to-low-end market (below 300 yuan): The 100-300 yuan price band accounts for 45% of terminal sell-through. In the low-end market (below 100 yuan), CR5 rose from 35% in 2024 to 38%. Bofen achieved revenue of 9.28 billion yuan in 2024, and at a 15% compound annual growth rate, it is projected to exceed 10 billion yuan in 2025. Low-end market CR5 will rise from 35% in 2024 to 60% by 2030. The market share of small and medium-sized liquor enterprises will be squeezed to less than 10%.
Industry concentration will further increase: According to monthly statistics from the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, the number of liquor enterprises above designated size fell to 932 in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 84 year-on-year. Based on the combined annual contraction of 50 billion yuan in the sub-premium and low-end markets, the number of enterprises above designated size will decrease by 65-75 per year over the next five years, potentially falling below 500 by 2030, with CR5 rising from 45% in 2024 to over 60%.
Marketing System Restructuring 40%-50% of Practitioners Face Transition or Exit
Traditional marketing models in the baijiu industry are being disrupted, and the structure of industry practitioners will undergo deep adjustment. According to statistics from the China Alcoholic Beverage Circulation Association, as of the end of 2024, there were approximately 3.8 million marketing-related practitioners in the baijiu industry, with traditional channel sales personnel accounting for 72.3%. The "layoff wave" over the next five years is driven by two empirical trends.
The reduction in the number of liquor enterprises directly leads to job losses. According to data from the State Administration for Market Regulation, with 65-75 enterprises above designated size exiting each year and an average of 210 employees per enterprise, enterprises above designated size alone will reduce jobs by 137,000-158,000. Combined with the exit of small and medium-sized enterprises, 12,000 such enterprises were deregistered in 2024, directly reducing employment by an estimated 850,000-950,000 jobs.
Channel digitalization replaces manual labor. According to iResearch's "2024 Alcohol E-commerce Report," the rise of live-streaming e-commerce, e-commerce platforms, and instant retail has sharply reduced demand for traditional field promotion and terminal maintenance positions: Online sales of baijiu accounted for 23.5% of total sales in 2024, up 15 percentage points from 2020. Instant retail platforms such as Meituan Flash Purchase and Waima Songjiu have compressed alcohol delivery times to within 28 minutes, with over 5,000 SKUs, while traditional tobacco and liquor stores average only 287 SKUs, leading to a 63% decline in demand for traditional terminal maintenance personnel.
Media surveys show that a regional liquor enterprise in Hunan reduced its offline sales staff from 210 to 108 in 2024, a layoff rate of 48.6%. A distributor in Jiangxi eliminated 20% of its offline sales staff in 2024 and instead hired online operations specialists.
Impact on personnel structure. According to research by Renhe Lida headhunting agency, due to the combined effects, the number of marketing practitioners in the baijiu industry will decrease by 40%-50% over the next five years, with approximately 1.52-1.9 million people forced to leave the industry. Among them, traditional sales personnel aged 35-50 lacking digital skills face the highest unemployment risk, accounting for 68% of that group.
Channel Reform Accelerates Distributors and Tobacco & Liquor Stores Enter the "Countdown to Elimination"
Traditional alcohol distribution channels are undergoing "life-and-death restructuring," and the number of distributors and tobacco & liquor stores will shrink significantly: For tobacco & liquor stores, the industry has shifted from rapid growth to cliff-like decline. Qichacha data shows that from 2015 to 2022, the number of registered tobacco & liquor stores expanded at a compound annual growth rate of 15%, reaching a peak of 3.54 million in 2022. In 2023, new registrations plummeted from 500,000 to 180,000, and 2024 marked the "critical turning point."
- The number of tobacco & liquor stores will decrease by more than 60%, potentially falling below 1.4 million by 2030.
The increase in chainization rate squeezes independent stores: Currently, the chainization rate of tobacco & liquor stores is less than 5%, while that of pharmacies exceeds 60%. Chain brands such as Huazhi Liquor Store and 1919 are accelerating expansion with supply chain advantages, adding hundreds of stores annually. Their per-store SKU count (over 1,000) and digital management capabilities are incomparable to independent stores (average 287 SKUs). The chainization rate is expected to rise to 25% by 2030.
Instant retail impact: Ordinary tobacco & liquor stores are at a disadvantage in delivery speed, SKU count, and price transparency. Platforms like Meituan Flash Purchase and JD Wine World have seen annual growth of 53% in alcohol sales, and the "30-minute delivery" service standard is reshaping consumer expectations, covering over 90% of prefecture-level cities. Euromonitor data shows that instant retail accounted for 9.2% of alcohol sales in 2024. Media surveys indicate that foot traffic to independent tobacco & liquor stores declined by 37% in 2024.
Profit margin compression: Sub-premium products suffer price inversion, low-end products have thin margins, and e-commerce platforms increase price transparency. According to the China Alcoholic Beverage Circulation Association, the average gross margin of independent tobacco & liquor stores fell from 25% in 2020 to 21% in 2024, with nearly 40% of stores at breakeven or loss-making. The 23% of stores that are loss-making will be quickly eliminated.
- Distributors: The pattern of "big players get stronger, small players are eliminated" will intensify.
According to the China Alcoholic Beverage Circulation Association, there were approximately 1.2 million alcohol distributors nationwide in 2024, with small and medium-sized distributors (annual sales below 5 million yuan) accounting for 81.5%. Over the next five years, small and medium-sized distributors will exit at a rate of 10% per year. In 2024, 118,000 small and medium-sized distributors were deregistered. Core reasons include: the proportion of direct supply from leading liquor enterprises rose to 30.2%, and large distributors such as Huazhi Liquor Store and Zhejiang Shangyuan have combined annual sales exceeding 50 billion yuan.
Instant retail platforms bypass distributors and directly connect with terminals in 41% of cases. It is estimated that by 2030, the number of alcohol distributors will fall below 700,000, with the share of large distributors (annual sales over 100 million yuan) rising from 5% to 12%.
Survival Rules Three Types of Enterprises Will Navigate the Cycle
The baijiu industry has entered a deep adjustment period of "stock competition + structural upgrading." Enterprise survival depends on three core capabilities, and the next five years will see a pattern of "the strong get stronger, and innovators break through."
- The first batch of enterprises to be eliminated (approximately 30% of the industry)
First, pan-national brands lacking brand support. Sub-premium brands without core products and with vague brand positioning, such as regional sauce-flavor liquor enterprises that followed the trend during the sauce-flavor boom, will see 90% basically exit the market by 2027 under pressure in the 500-800 yuan price band.
Second, regional liquor enterprises without leading products. Regional enterprises with annual sales below 100 million yuan and lacking core products face the dilemma of monopoly by big brands in the low-end market and inability to break into the premium market. In 2024, 37% of such enterprises saw revenue declines exceeding 50%.
Third, enterprises with chaotic management. Companies with personnel turmoil, unstable quality, or blind diversification—such as owners who treat the enterprise as an "ATM," continuously draining resources, and neglecting equipment upgrades and quality investment—will see rising quality complaints and declining customer loyalty. During the industry adjustment, they will be eliminated due to broken capital chains or market trust crises.
- Enterprises that can survive
National head brands: CR5 members such as Moutai and Wuliangye, leveraging brand barriers, quality advantages, and channel control capabilities, will further increase market share, with CR5 potentially exceeding 60% by 2030.
Regional leading enterprises: Those focusing on the 100-300 yuan mass-consumption price band, with stable local channels and consumer bases, will consolidate market share through cost-performance advantages.
Innovative and transforming enterprises: Companies that promptly cater to young consumers by launching low-alcohol baijiu (below 40% ABV), fruit-flavored baijiu, and liqueurs. Euromonitor data shows that the low-alcohol baijiu market reached 28 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 22%, and is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2030, becoming a new growth pole for the industry.
- Enterprises that will thrive
Enterprises with the three characteristics of "clear brand + stable quality + channel adaptation": precise brand positioning (e.g., focusing on business banquets, mass self-drinking, and other segmented scenarios), sustained quality investment (e.g., solid-state fermentation, long-term aging), and active adoption of digital channels (e.g., live-streaming e-commerce, instant retail).
Enterprises that can adjust product structure according to consumption trends will achieve counter-trend growth during the industry adjustment: For example, Bofen focuses on mass self-drinking scenarios, with solid-state fermentation investment accounting for 15% of costs, online channel share rising to 28% in 2024, and revenue growth of 15%. A regional enterprise developed fruit-flavored baijiu, with young consumers accounting for 42% in 2024 and revenue growing 23% against the trend.
**【Moving Toward the C-End】******The 11th China FMCG ConferenceTime: March 16-18, 2026Location: Chengdu, China**