According to Kantar Worldpanel, the average penetration rate of low-temperature milk nationwide was 39% in 2023, while in Shanghai it had already reached 72% by 2020. Not only in Shanghai, but across East China and South China, it is foreseeable that the penetration rate of low-temperature fresh milk is far above the national average. Therefore, in high-penetration markets, the wave of consumption upgrading and iteration from entry-level ordinary pasteurized milk to higher-quality halo milk has begun. The diversification of milk application scenarios is accelerating the replacement of ambient milk by fresh milk. In addition, under the impact of the new Chinese coffee and tea beverage trends, self-mixing various coffee milk and tea milk, supported by the original coffee and tea brewing popularity, the cold nature of low-temperature fresh milk is no longer an obstacle. The extension of shelf life has greatly enhanced the gifting attribute of high-end fresh milk. The continuous evolution of pasteurized fresh milk sterilization technology (such as INF ultra-instant sterilization technology and low-temperature ceramic membrane filtration technology) has significantly extended its shelf life. For example, the shelf life of Shine Zhen, Yuexianhuo, and Bright Youbei has reached about 15-20 days, making their circulation in the market and among people smooth and unimpeded. The greatly extended shelf life is also enabling a transformation from the traditional single self-drinking and home dining limitation to diversified scenarios, especially enhancing the gifting attribute. Using "freshness" as a medium aligns with the higher level of attention and respect in gifting scenarios. That is, the depth of the gifting market is solely indicated by the packaging changes of high-end fresh milk, not just the content itself. During important holidays, more and more dairy brands launch more gift-boxed fresh milk products, showing a flourishing diversity. In today's consumption era, packaging is not just a tool; the visual, tactile, and psychological experiences it brings are also part of consumption. Whether it is keen on social sharing or the sincerity and respect of high-end, upscale gifting, high-end fresh milk with "appearance" first, against the backdrop of "freshness", can bring aesthetic enjoyment and novelty that satisfy both visually and psychologically. Therefore, pasteurized milk relying solely on the self-drinking scenario cannot support the formation of a large market. During the 2024 and 2025 Spring Festival periods, gift-packaged products maintained strong sales growth and had high premium space. It is foreseeable that the windfall of high-end fresh milk gifting scenarios is coming. The "periodic purchase" model based on production by sales helps fresh milk flow efficiently across regions. Always, pasteurized milk with obvious short-shelf-life characteristics has practiced a sales model different from ambient milk. The reason why milk delivery to households has always been a barrier channel for regional dairy enterprises is that its internal business logic focuses on: for consumers, it is "product + home delivery service" with "same-day freshness", while for dairy manufacturers, it is a low-cost state of production by sales, seamless connection, closed loop, and efficient supply operation system. Fresh milk is a daily food with continuous purchase demand. For national and cross-regional dairy enterprises, the "periodic purchase" model based on e-commerce platforms, WeChat mall, mini-programs, and apps, which locks in users' consumption for a certain period, may be more stable than other models. To solve a series of bottlenecks such as the huge loss caused by unsold expired products in offline channels, the possibility of order cancellations at any time in live-streaming e-commerce, and the difficulty of acquiring customers in regional milk delivery to households, various fresh milk brands have launched internet-based "periodic purchase" models. For example, Mengniu and Alibaba have established technical cooperation to build "Tianxianpei", Bright's "Suixinding", and New Hope's "Xianhuo Go", all of which use APP applications on major e-commerce platforms to leverage periodic consumption. Always, the short-shelf-life characteristics of low-temperature fresh milk, with extremely low and dispersed market concentration, have made local dairy enterprises each dominate their own regions, evenly matched. So far, no sub-brand has unified national consumer awareness. Or, more precisely, among the four major dairy categories, it is the only sub-track that has not yet formed a super-100-billion single product scale. At a time when ambient milk is divided by leading companies and low-temperature yogurt is disrupted by ambient yogurt, pasteurized fresh milk, which has become a trend and popular signal for the future, is most likely to become a category that helps dairy enterprises move towards high-end. Relying on the enhancement of national awareness of the active nutritional value of fresh milk, the extension of shelf life, the switch to diversified gifting scenarios, and the efficient reach of user needs, as well as the rise of the "periodic purchase" model based on production by sales, with the help of the rapid information fission in the current mobile internet era, it is believable and foreseeable that a super-100-billion single product that caters to the consumption trend and gathers the strength of the entire industry will appear in the near future. So, from Mengniu's Shine Zhen, Junlebao's Yuexianhuo, to Bright's Youbei, who will win? Let's wait and see.
【New Order · Symbiosis】The 10th China FMCG Innovation Conference Time: March 17-19, 2025 Location: Chengdu, China