At year-end visits to distributors, when asked how business was this year, most distributors responded: not losing money is already good. It's often said that 2023 was tough, but little do they know that 2024 will be even harder. Moving from an era of incremental growth to one of stock, the future for the distributor community is not optimistic. Mr. Cao Hu, Global Partner of Kotler Consulting Group and CEO of Greater China and Singapore, mentioned that in the past, almost all industries were advancing rapidly, but in the next three years, this high-speed growth will not reappear. Instead, there will be differentiation by industry, region, price band, and brand. The strong will get stronger, and the weak will get weaker, so 'differentiation' is the theme for the consumer market in the next three years. With imbalanced population structure, diverging consumption structures, and rationalized consumer demand, the domestic market of 1.4 billion people cannot drive consumption demand, leaving distributors confused and hesitant... Founders and senior executives from six major companies—Jiangxiaobai, Kimberly-Clark, Kotler Consulting, Xuanwu Cloud Technology, Heyin Network, and Qince—will personally interpret from the height of the entire industry, from a larger perspective, a deeper dimension, and a longer-term future:
1. What will the consumer market environment be like in the next three years? 2. Many FMCG companies and distributors are lamenting that business is getting harder. What suggestions do you have? 3. What advice do you have for distributors in the FMCG industry? 4. Where will growth mainly come from in the next few years?
Mr. Tao Shiquan, Founder of Jiangxiaobai: In the next three years, the FMCG industry will face huge challenges. Companies must recognize this challenge at both the cognitive and operational levels and make rapid changes and adjustments! Growth points for companies in the next three years: High-quality growth; differentiated innovation.
Cao Hu, Global Partner of Kotler Consulting Group and CEO of Greater China and Singapore: We talk about growth every year, but the path to growth changes each year. Looking back at history and reflecting on our original intentions, only by seeing the underlying logic of growth can we seize opportunities in trends and rebound from the bottom! Growth points for companies in the next three years: Continuously explore segmented consumer needs; bring new supply to consumers through technological and process innovation.
Guo Wei, National Sales Vice President of Kimberly-Clark (China) Co., Ltd.: The Chinese market has entered an era of high-quality growth. In the future, the third- and fourth-tier markets may present a huge growth opportunity in the offline market. Distributors should reduce costs and increase efficiency, avoid disorderly expansion, adopt a long-term perspective, and find their own opportunity points.
Chen Yonghui, Chairman and CEO of Xuanwu Cloud Technology Holdings Limited: The biggest challenge facing FMCG companies is how to find incremental growth in a stock era. Through digitalization, achieve deep collaboration between brands and distributors, maximize efficiency, and precisely cover more terminals. At the operational level, spending should be conservative, but the mindset should be optimistic and proactive.
Bei Nianjun, Founder and CEO of Shanghai Heyin Network Technology Co., Ltd., and Founder of MPP Alliance: The next three years will be the worst of times and the best of times, transitioning from an era of incremental growth to one of stock. Here are three major growth drivers: infinitely close to consumers from scenarios; enhance omnichannel operational capabilities; achieve growth breakthroughs for small and medium brands.
Liu Zhao, CEO of Qince: Pessimists are always right, but optimists always move forward. When the market is good, seize the market; when the market is bad, practice internal skills. Currently, with weak market consumption, it's even more important to focus on improving internal efficiency. Believe in the Chinese market and the Chinese economy!
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