Long press the QR code or click "Read Original" to register. 30+ industry experts, 100+ B2B platform founders, 800+ manufacturer and distributor friends, gather in Fuzhou to discuss the Internet transformation path of the FMCG industry. The reporter learned from the China General Chamber of Commerce that from January to August, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 21.0505 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. Compared with the same period last year, the growth rate declined slightly by 0.2 percentage points. I. Basic Operation of the Current Consumer Goods Market

  1. The consumer goods market remained basically stable. From January to August 2016, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 21.0505 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. Compared with the same period last year, the growth rate declined slightly by 0.2 percentage points. Looking at the operation from January to August, the monthly growth rates were all above 10%, and the consumer goods market basically maintained a stable operation trend. By urban and rural areas: From January to August, urban retail sales of consumer goods reached 13.4249 trillion yuan, up 10.2% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year; rural retail sales reached 2.1889 trillion yuan, up 11% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Rural growth remained faster than urban. By goods and catering: From January to August, retail sales of goods reached 18.7903 trillion yuan, up 10.2% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year; catering revenue reached 2.2603 trillion yuan, up 11.1% year-on-year, 0.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year.
  2. Online retail growth was still significantly faster than physical stores, but the slowdown trend was obvious. From January to August, online physical goods retail sales reached 2.4347 trillion yuan, up 25.5%, 10.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate has basically shown a downward trend. In August, the growth rate was 21.5%, 5.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year. By food, clothing, and daily necessities: From January to August, among online physical goods retail sales, food, clothing, and daily necessities grew by 30.3%, 16.9%, and 28.5% respectively, down 11, 10.4, and 10.3 percentage points from the same period last year. From January to August, the contribution rate of online physical goods retail sales to the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 28.9%, 1.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and its share of total retail sales of consumer goods was 11.6%, 1.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year.
  3. Offline physical store retail sales showed a trend of stabilization and recovery. From January to August, offline physical store retail sales of consumer goods increased by 8.1% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points lower than the same period last year, basically stable. Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate has been above 8%. Since June, it has shown a recovery trend, rising from 8% in May to 9.3% in August, 0.1 percentage points faster than the same period last year.
  4. Large retail enterprises saw a bottoming out and recovery in growth. From January to August, according to statistics from the China Commercial Information Center, retail sales of the top 100 large retail enterprises nationwide decreased by 2.5% year-on-year (compared with an increase of 0.7% in the same period last year). By category: From January to August, grain, oil, and food decreased by 1.6% (compared with an increase of 4.3% in the same period last year), clothing decreased by 2.2% (compared with an increase of 2.1% in the same period last year), cosmetics increased by 0.8% (compared with an increase of 2.2% in the same period last year), daily necessities decreased by 1.2% (compared with flat in the same period last year), gold, silver, and jewelry decreased by 15.1% (compared with a decrease of 3% in the same period last year), household appliances increased by 0.4% (compared with a decrease of 6% in the same period last year), audio and video equipment decreased by 14.6% (compared with a decrease of 11.3% in the same period last year), and communication equipment decreased by 19.1% (compared with an increase of 18.2% in the same period last year). Since June, the growth rate of retail sales of the top 100 large retail enterprises has bottomed out and recovered. In July, it increased by 1.3%, and in August, it decreased by 0.5%, better than the previous period.
  5. Units below the quota (including individual businesses) maintained a relatively fast growth rate. From January to August, retail sales of goods by units below the quota (including individual businesses) increased by 12.6% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year; catering revenue increased by 12.9% year-on-year, 0.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From January to August, the share of retail sales of goods by units below the quota (including individual businesses) in total retail sales of goods was 52.4%, and their contribution rate to the growth of total retail sales of goods was 63.3%; their catering revenue accounted for 74.6% of total catering revenue, with a contribution rate of 85.2% to the growth of total catering revenue.
  6. Compared with the same period last year, the growth rates of most categories of goods declined or fell. From January to August, among the 15 categories of goods counted by units above the quota, 14 categories saw a decline or decrease in retail sales growth compared with the same period last year. Only automobile retail sales accelerated by 4.2 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The acceleration of total retail sales of consumer goods in August was mainly driven by automobile goods. In August, retail sales of automobiles by units above the quota increased by 13.1% year-on-year, 3.9 percentage points faster than the previous month, pulling up the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods by 1.52 percentage points, 0.47 percentage points faster than the previous month.
  7. Consumer prices rose moderately. From January to August, consumer prices rose by 2% year-on-year, 0.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Among them, food prices rose by 5.2%, 2.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Since April, it has shown a month-by-month decline. II. Analysis of Economic and Consumer Goods Market Growth Trends From the economic operation since the beginning of this year, the consumer goods market has performed relatively well, basically maintaining a stable growth trend, with a small decline in growth rate and an increased contribution to economic growth. In the first half of the year, the contribution rate of the wholesale and retail industry's value added to GDP growth was 9.1%, 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In August, some macroeconomic indicators showed encouraging signs. From January to August, national fixed asset investment nominally increased by 8.1% year-on-year, the same as from January to July. Among them, private investment nominally increased by 2.1% year-on-year, the same as from January to July, both ending the month-by-month decline. In August, exports increased by 5.9%, the highest growth rate since April, and imports increased by 10.8%, turning from negative to positive. In August, the value added of industries above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points faster than in July. In August, total social electricity consumption increased by 8.3% year-on-year, a significant rebound of 6.4 percentage points. These encouraging signs help boost confidence and promote stable economic and consumption growth. From September to December this year, the economy will maintain a stable and improving trend.
  8. Exports are expected to maintain positive growth in the coming months, and the whole year may end the decline. Since July, exports have grown for two consecutive months, with the export value returning to above 1.2 trillion yuan, reaching 1.27 trillion yuan in August. From September to December last year, except for December, the export value was between 1.2 and 1.3 trillion yuan. In 2015, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was between 6.3 and 6.5, and it has now reached about 6.67. Therefore, in the coming months, exports denominated in RMB are expected to maintain positive growth, and the whole year may end the decline.
  9. Investment will tend to stabilize in the coming months, with growth accelerating somewhat. Investment remains an important means of stabilizing economic growth. Facing the downward pressure on the economy in the first half of the year, the central government has increased efforts to stabilize investment growth, especially the supervision and inspection of project implementation, and the measures have begun to show results. Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) has risen from 3.9% growth in July to 8.2% in August, and private fixed asset investment has risen from a decline of 1.2% in July to growth of 2.1% in August. The base in the last few months of last year was also low. Therefore, it is expected that the growth rate of fixed asset investment will stabilize and accelerate somewhat in the coming months. However, to maintain stable and healthy growth of fixed asset investment, especially private investment, strong and effective measures must be taken to curb the excessive, unreasonable, and irrational rise in commercial housing prices. Since the beginning of this year, commercial housing prices in some cities have risen sharply again, causing investment, especially private investment, to further shift from real to virtual, increasing the real estate bubble, financial risks, and RMB depreciation risks, and further squeezing consumption capacity. If the real estate market problem is not solved, the economy cannot sustain stable and healthy growth.
  10. Consumption will continue to maintain stable growth. From January to August, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 10.3%, basically maintaining stable growth. Before August, most of the pension increases for retired workers had not been in place, which had a certain impact on the growth of consumer goods. After September, the pension increases will be gradually in place, which will help promote the stable growth of the consumer goods market. Within the year, the real estate market will not experience major fluctuations, and commercial housing sales will continue to maintain a relatively fast growth rate, which will help promote the growth of household appliances, furniture, building materials, and decoration goods. Under the promotion of new energy vehicle consumption policies and the growth of consumer demand, automobile goods will continue to maintain the stable and accelerating growth trend since May. Offline physical stores, large and medium-sized retail enterprises with Chinese and foreign investment, are accelerating transformation and innovation. New business formats, new models, new experiences, and new services are emerging rapidly and in large numbers. Modern supply chains centered on reducing costs and ensuring quality are being accelerated. Retail prices of goods are shifting to adapt to consumers' consumption levels. At the same time, online retail, under cost and profit pressure, will inevitably raise retail prices. These factors will enhance the attraction of physical stores to bring back customer traffic and help stimulate and activate consumption. It is expected that the total retail sales of consumer goods for the whole year will increase by about 10.3%.
  11. Consumer prices will continue to rise moderately. From the perspective of economic growth and consumption growth, consumer prices will continue to maintain a moderate upward trend. From January to August, CPI rose by 2% year-on-year. In August, CPI rose by 1.3% year-on-year, mainly due to the highest base in the same period last year. It is expected that in the remaining months of the year, the CPI increase will be higher than in August, and the annual CPI will rise by about 2%. Based on the above analysis, it is expected that the annual GDP growth will be around 6.7%. New Food Era · New Distribution —— 2016 China "FMCG + Internet" Summit Forum —— This is a grand event focusing on how the FMCG industry channels will transform under the general trend of Internet+ transformation Conference Agenda 08:00-09:00 Registration 09:00-09:05 Host opening 09:05-09:35 2016 China FMCG Industry Trend Analysis Report - Zhao Bo 09:35-10:05 FMCG Enterprise Transformation Strategy and Path - Liu Chunxiong 10:05-10:35 Opportunities and Challenges Brought by FMCG Channel Reform - Field 365 CEO Liu Zhao 10:35-11:05 Alibaba Retail Link All-round Empowerment - Alibaba Retail Link Guo Kunkun 11:05-11:25 Channel Efficiency in the Internet Era - Benlai Holding Vice President Fu Xiaoyun 11:25-12:00 Roundtable Forum - Brand Transformation: Improvement vs Reconstruction? Guests: Liu Zhao, Liu Chunxiong, Fang Gang, Chen Feng, Shi Zhengchuan, Deng Xia 12:00-13:30 Lunch 13:30-13:50 Distributor Transformation: City Distribution Trends - Weijie City Distribution CEO Wang Qi 13:50-14:20 Roundtable Forum - Why Distributors Should Do Logistics in Transformation Guests: Zhao Bo, Wang Qi, Liu Zhongmin, Tang Guangliang, Wang Cheng, Sheng Yan 14:20-14:40 How FMCG Enterprises Can Take Off with the Internet - Xijiu E-commerce Operations Director Wang Hui 14:40-15:00 Detailed Explanation of Zhongshang Huimin's One Machine, Two Wings Strategy - Zhongshang Huimin Vice President Su Xiaoxin 15:00-15:20 Category Value and B2B E-commerce Development Strategy - Yijiupi CEO Wang Chaocheng 15:20-15:40 Supply Chain Finance is the Lubricant for B2B to Drive Traditional Business - 51 Order CEO Chen Xian 15:40-16:00 Zhanghe Cloud Factory Helps Upgrade FMCG Supply Chain - Zhanghe Tianxia CEO Yang Lixiang 16:00-16:30 Integrating Small and Micro Retail, Reconstructing Business Ecology - Quanshi Vice President Miao Dong 16:30-16:50 In the Next Ten Years, B2B is the Main Investment Battlefield - Well-known Investor (TBD) 17:00-17:30 Roundtable Forum - Who is the King of FMCG B2B Models Guests: Fu Xiaoyun, Zhuang Jianzhong, Jiang Tao, Zeng Weiqin 17:30-19:30 Dinner For manufacturer and distributor friends who want to transform, this grand event is not to be missed. Interested friends can long press the QR code below or click "Read Original" to register. Registration Method: Long press the QR code below or click "Read Original" ↓↓↓ Click "Read Original" [Register]