In 2025, China's consumer market reached a milestone moment—total retail sales of consumer goods surpassed 50 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 50.1202 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 52%, up 5 percentage points from the previous year. It is noteworthy that this achievement was born against a backdrop of global economic turmoil, increased uncertainty in future economic expectations, and weak recovery in consumer confidence. In this process, the 'visible hand' of policy played a key supporting role—in 2025, the state arranged 300 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for consumer goods trade-in subsidies, with significant positive policy effects. In the first three quarters, home appliances, audio-visual and other related commodities maintained double-digit growth. However, policy dividends were not evenly distributed; many consumer sub-sectors entered the deep waters of stock competition, sinking deeper into fierce involution. In such a market environment, a group of leading consumer companies delivered impressive results, but some consumer enterprises experienced varying degrees of performance decline. ** Beverage Industry:** ** Some Lead, Some Fall Behind** In 2025, the beverage industry presented a distinct 'ice and fire' pattern. From the companies that have disclosed their full-year 2025 financial reports—Nongfu Spring and Dongsheng Beverage led with double-digit growth, while Master Kong and Uni-President's beverage businesses saw slowing growth, and China Resources Beverage was mired in a significant decline in both revenue and net profit. Overall, the beverage industry in 2025 has shifted from the 'everyone grows together' phase to structural growth where 'some lead, some fall behind'. In 2025, the packaged drinking water market underwent dramatic restructuring. Nongfu Spring rebounded strongly after the 2024 public opinion storm, with packaged drinking water product revenue growing over 12% year-on-year, including over 20% growth in the second half, showing clear growth momentum throughout the year. Meanwhile, the company's gross margin improved from 58.1% in the same period last year to 60.5%, mainly due to lower procurement costs for PET raw materials and cartons. In stark contrast to Nongfu Spring's strong comeback, China Resources Beverage's 2025 revenue was 11.002 billion yuan, down 18.6% year-on-year; net profit attributable to parent was 985 million yuan, down 39.8% year-on-year, marking its first significant performance decline since listing. The company admitted in its announcement that the revenue decline was mainly due to reduced packaged water sales, increased marketing resource investment, and product structure changes. Competition in the purified water market is becoming increasingly fierce, and the growth pressure on China Resources Beverage's 'C'estbon' brand has intensified. The tea beverage track was the biggest structural highlight in the beverage industry in 2025. Nongfu Spring's tea beverage business achieved revenue of 21.596 billion yuan, up 29.0% year-on-year, accounting for 41.1% of total revenue, becoming its largest core business. Master Kong's beverage business achieved annual revenue of 50.123 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to parent up 18.5% to 2.274 billion yuan. Uni-President China's tea beverage business revenue was 8.802 billion yuan, up 2.6% year-on-year, with growth also slowing significantly compared to previous years. The tea beverage market is undergoing a structural shift from traditional sugary tea to sugar-free tea and health tea, and the ability to seize the health trend has become a key variable in corporate competition. Functional beverages were the fastest-growing segment in 2025. Dongsheng Beverage achieved annual revenue of 20.875 billion yuan, up 31.8% year-on-year; net profit attributable to parent was 4.415 billion yuan, up 32.72% year-on-year. While revenue surpassed the 20 billion yuan mark, the multi-category strategy achieved significant results. Specifically, Dongsheng Special Drink achieved revenue of approximately 15.6 billion yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year, continuously consolidating its functional beverage base. 'Dongsheng Boshui La' achieved revenue of 3.274 billion yuan, up 119% year-on-year, becoming a solid second growth curve. Other beverage categories combined achieved revenue of approximately 2 billion yuan, up 94% year-on-year. The proportion of non-special drink revenue increased by 9.3 percentage points year-on-year to 25.2%, and the company is accelerating its transformation from a single functional beverage brand to a platform-based beverage enterprise. In 2026, the beverage industry will still face multiple challenges such as diverging consumer demand, continuous channel changes, and intensified competition in new categories. Enterprises with strong product innovation capabilities, brand matrix depth, and channel management efficiency are expected to further expand their leading advantages amid structural differentiation. ** Condiments: Industry Concentration Further Increases** In 2025, the overall growth rate of the condiment industry slowed significantly. From the full-year data, the 2025 performance of 11 major listed condiment companies, as compiled by Lansha Consumer, shows the following pattern: In terms of revenue scale, the industry presents an obvious 'pyramid' structure: Haitian Flavoring leads with 28.873 billion yuan, 1.7 times that of Angel Yeast, which ranks third; only Meihua Bio and Angel Yeast are in the 10-20 billion yuan range; only Yihai International is in the 5-10 billion yuan range; the remaining seven companies have revenue below 3.5 billion yuan. Industry concentration continues to rise, and the scale advantages of leading enterprises have further expanded. In 2025, various sub-sectors of the condiment industry showed obvious differences. Among them, the soy sauce category saw significantly slowed growth. According to data from Qince Consumer Research Institute, the 5-year compound growth rate of the soy sauce consumer market was only 2.3%, significantly lower than the overall condiment industry growth rate of 4.5%; per capita soy sauce demand fell from 7.28 kg in 2015 to less than 5 kg in 2023. Meanwhile, compound condiments maintained high growth, with the market size exceeding 210 billion yuan in 2025, and a compound growth rate of 18% from 2022 to 2025, far higher than traditional condiments. In this context, companies such as Lotus Holding, Tianwei Food, and Yihai International continued to make efforts in this track, with hot pot seasoning, recipe-style seasonings, and instant convenience seasonings showing strong growth. Traditional condiment companies have also entered the compound seasoning track through mergers and acquisitions or internal incubation. At the same time, the health consumption wave is profoundly reshaping the product structure of the condiment industry. Haitian Flavoring's nutrition and health series products grew 48.3% year-on-year, covering organic, low-salt, and other directions. Angel Yeast continues to make efforts in health ingredients such as yeast protein. Meanwhile, with the release of the 'National Food Safety Standard for Prepackaged Food Labeling General Rules', the 'zero-additive' label has been explicitly prohibited, and the industry is expected to move towards a more standardized and healthier development track. ** Gold Jewelry: Accelerated Differentiation** In 2025, the gold jewelry industry experienced the most profound structural transformation in nearly two decades. Against the backdrop of international gold prices rising 60% throughout the year and continuously hitting record highs, coupled with the implementation of the 'gold tax reform' policy, the industry accelerated differentiation and restructuring. From the disclosed full-year 2025 financial reports—differentiated brands represented by Laopu Gold and Chow Sang Sang advanced rapidly, while traditional leaders such as Lao Feng Xiang and Chow Tai Fook faced severe operational tests. From store opening data, Lao Feng Xiang's franchise stores net decreased by 499, Chow Tai Fook net closed 896 stores, while Laopu Gold and Chow Sang Sang opened stores against the trend, indicating that the industry has shifted from the 'enclosing land' scale expansion phase to the 'intensive cultivation' value competition phase. The core measurement standard is no longer the number of stores, but single-store profitability, product premium capability, and brand influence. With the continuous increase in the proportion of 'one-price' gold product sales, the pricing model is shifting from 'priced by gram' to 'priced by piece', which is also forcing companies to enhance product added value. Overall, in 2025, gold bar and coin consumption surpassed gold jewelry for the first time, marking the industry's most important watershed event. Gold's attribute as a safe-haven asset has been repriced against the backdrop of rising macroeconomic uncertainty, coupled with the younger generation's pursuit of 'self-pleasing consumption'. Gold consumption is shifting from traditional wedding rigid demand to a dual-engine drive of 'daily self-wearing + investment preservation'. Under this trend, Chow Sang Sang has created differentiated products around intangible cultural heritage filigree, Laopu Gold has created a new category with ancient method gold, and Chow Tai Fook's Chuan Fu series achieved annual retail value exceeding HK$4 billion. Against the backdrop of high homogeneity in gold material itself, craftsmanship value, cultural connotation, and design innovation are becoming the core sources of brand premium.** Sports Shoes and Apparel:**** From 'Local Catch-up' to 'Global Competition'** In 2025, international giants such as Nike and Puma were mired in transformation pains and strategic adjustments, while the Chinese sports brand group continued its high growth momentum. Anta Sports' revenue broke the 80 billion yuan mark for the first time, 361 Degrees maintained double-digit growth in both revenue and net profit for five consecutive years, Li Ning's revenue was only one step away from 30 billion yuan, and Xtep's net profit hit a record high... From overall data, the four major domestic sports brands—Anta Sports, Li Ning, Xtep International, and 361 Degrees—achieved combined revenue of approximately 135.1 billion yuan in 2025, with profits of approximately 19.1 billion yuan, showing an industry pattern of 'the strong get stronger, differentiation intensifies'. It is noteworthy that the combined revenue growth rate of the four major domestic sports brands far exceeded the average of international peers, indicating that Chinese sports brands are entering a new stage from 'local catch-up' to 'global competition'. From a category perspective, the sports shoes and apparel industry in 2025 showed distinct structural characteristics: The running category became the track with the strongest growth certainty. According to a research report from Guosen Securities, in the third quarter of 2025, running shoe growth accelerated to high double digits, while basketball shoe declines widened. In terms of brand landscape, Xtep continued to benefit from its professional running positioning, and Li Ning's running category surpassed basketball for the first time to become its largest category. Outdoor sports became the most eye-catching incremental track in 2025. Both Nike and Li Ning opened independent outdoor stores, and outdoor products are no longer just a counter in the main brand store, but require independent design, story, and operation teams. Anta's Kolon brand continued high growth, and 361 Degrees accelerated its attack on the mid-to-high-end market through categories such as outdoor jackets. The rise of the outdoor track marks the accelerated evolution of the sports shoes and apparel industry from traditional 'mass sports' to 'segmented professional scenarios'. In the process of enterprise development, multi-brand matrix has become the core moat for leading enterprises. For example, Anta, through its multi-brand combination of 'Anta main brand + FILA + Descente + Kolon', can still maintain overall double-digit growth when the main brand's growth slows. The risk of single-brand dependence is being repriced by the industry. In summary, the sports shoes and apparel industry is accelerating from the previous 'enclosing land' scale expansion phase into the 'intensive cultivation' value competition phase. The comprehensive competition of product strength, brand strength, channel efficiency, and globalization capability will determine the company's position in the next round of industry consolidation. ** Beauty and Personal Care:**** From 'Revenue Scale' to 'Profit Quality'** In 2025, China's beauty market saw overall growth slowing and channel involution intensifying. International giants also couldn't withstand it; Estée Lauder experienced multiple consecutive quarters of decline in the Chinese market. Within the domestic camp, fission intensified—Shangmei Corporation and Mao Geping led with over 30% growth, while Proya and Betaine saw significantly slowed growth. Giant Biogene experienced its first 'decline in both profit and revenue' in six years since listing, Bloomage Biotech saw 'increased profit but not revenue', and Shanghai Jahwa successfully turned losses into profits. Looking at the 2025 financial reports of the beauty and personal care industry, the industry is bidding farewell to the previous extensive growth model driven by marketing. Bloomage Biotech's revenue fell 21.49% but net profit increased 67%, as it actively contracted low-efficiency businesses and focused on core areas. Betaine rejected the 'scale illusion' and proactively made strategic adjustments during the industry transformation period. When industry growth slows, the competitive focus is shifting from 'revenue scale' to 'profit quality', and improving profitability is more strategically valuable than simple scale expansion. At the same time, the risk of single-brand dependence is being reassessed by the industry. Shangmei Corporation achieved over 35% growth through its multi-brand matrix of Hanhoo + Newpage; Proya continues to promote multi-brand matrix construction, hedging risks through sub-brand echelons when the main brand's growth slows. In an era of accelerated iteration of category and brand lifecycles, the thickness and flexibility of multi-brand portfolios are becoming core competitive barriers. It is noteworthy that premiumization and efficacy have become the main growth engines. Shanghai Jahwa's beauty business grew at a rate as high as 53.7%, with gross margin improving to 62.6%, showing significant results from its strategic focus on high-margin beauty categories. Recombinant collagen, efficacy skincare, high-end anti-aging, and other segmented tracks continue to be highly prosperous. Product efficacy value and brand premium capability are replacing channel coverage breadth as new growth drivers. ** Behind the Performance Growth** Looking at the above leading consumer companies, their growth differentiation is not accidental, but stems from whether they have established systematic core capabilities. In summary: Product strength is the foundation of consumer brands. Nongfu Spring's success in 2025 is centered on forward-looking layout in category innovation. The sugar-free tea brand 'Oriental Leaf', launched as early as 2011, after more than a decade of market cultivation, finally exploded in 2025—tea beverage revenue accounted for 41.09%, surpassing packaged water for the first time, forming a 'water + tea' dual engine. Behind this structural transformation is Nongfu Spring's precise prediction of health consumption trends and long-term investment in the supply chain. In addition, Dongsheng Boshui La achieved explosive growth at 119%, and Laopu Gold's ancient method gold grew at over two times—the common feature of all high-growth enterprises is having a 'second growth curve'. Companies with product homogeneity and lack of differentiated innovation are facing accelerating growth pressure in the era of stock competition. The value of channel capability is being redefined in the era of stock competition. The secret to 361 Degrees' five consecutive years of double-digit growth cannot be separated from the support of channel capability. In the fiercely competitive sports shoes and apparel industry, 361 Degrees adheres to the 'extreme cost-effectiveness' positioning, develops new retail channels, maintains high growth in online sales, and deeply cultivates the sinking market in third- and fourth-tier cities, forming differentiated channel advantages. Nongfu Spring's channel barriers are even deeper. It has 5,000 distributors and 2.5 million terminal outlets nationwide, 2.5 times the scale of C'estbon. Through deep coverage of third- and fourth-tier markets, as well as customized products for scenarios such as hotels and high-speed rail, it can maintain its leading position even when industry demand is under pressure. In addition to precise product positioning and strong channels, a stable supply chain is also key. Taking Nongfu Spring as an example, while peers are still troubled by unstable raw material quality and insufficient production capacity, Nongfu Spring has already established its own raw material base deep in the tea mountains of Yunnan, laying a solid foundation for rapid business growth. Data shows that Nongfu Spring's trade payable turnover days decreased from 33.2 days to 27.7 days in 2025, meaning it increased payment to upstream suppliers. This timely payment method not only wins supplier trust but also reduces supply chain costs. At the same time, digitalization is profoundly reshaping the efficiency boundaries of the consumer industry. Mao Geping's high growth in 2025 is largely due to its 'online seeding + offline experience' omni-channel integration model, with a gross margin as high as 84.2%, behind which is precise digital marketing investment and efficient membership operation system. In the food and beverage field, Dongsheng Beverage achieved double-digit net profit growth through digital channel reform. Nongfu Spring, relying on digital supply chain management, maintained production capacity flexibility while tea beverages grew in volume, ensuring precise matching of supply and demand. It is noteworthy that in 2025, raw material cost dividends (PET, sugar prices falling) brought generally improved gross margins to beverage and some beauty companies. But cost dividends are unsustainable. Whether companies can continue to make endogenous profitability improvements such as product structure upgrades and brand premium enhancement is the key to determining long-term competitiveness. Companies relying on low-margin, scale-driven business models are facing increasing profit pressure. Against the backdrop of peaking growth in a single market and rising geopolitical risks, globalization and multi-brand capabilities have become the 'ballast stone' for consumer leaders. Anta is the epitome of this capability. Through the 'single focus, multi-brand, globalization' strategy, Anta has built a multi-brand matrix covering mass professional sports (Anta main brand), fashion sports (FILA), and outdoor sports (Descente, Kolon). Different brands cover different consumer levels and segmented tracks, forming growth resilience where 'when one side is dark, the other is bright'. While consolidating the main business, being able to find future growth paths may be the underlying tone of the resilient growth of consumer giants. In 2026, differentiation will remain the main theme of the consumer sector. What is certain is that in each cycle change, enterprises with true core capabilities will ultimately win out in the differentiation and define the competitive rules of the next era. First China Private Brand Industry Chain Conference Time: June 4-5, 2026 Location: Hangzhou, Zhejiang This is an industry flagship conference spanning the upstream, midstream, and downstream of the private brand industry chain—regional supermarkets, community supermarkets, instant retail, discount supermarkets, first-line brand owners, OEM manufacturing factories, supply chain service providers, with 1500+ industry elites gathering in one place. Let the upstream hear the real needs of the terminal, and let the downstream see the real capabilities of the supply chain.
Capital, Earnings & M&A · Industry Trends
Plunge 40% vs Surge 120%: The 'Heaven and Hell' of Consumer Giants
In 2025, China's consumer market reached a milestone as total retail sales of consumer goods surpassed 50 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 50.1202 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, up 5 percentage points from the previous year. This achievement came amid global economic turmoil and weak consumer confidence, with policy support playing a key role, including 300 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for trade-in subsidies. However, the industry showed stark divergence: some leading companies delivered impressive growth, while others faced significant declines.
