Source: Xu Zhanbing Brand Marketing (ID: gh_558b362f9c92)

When we talk about new trends and opportunities in the new year, what exactly are we referring to? In fact, we are talking about the combination of long-term regular trends and short-term sudden variables, which together lead to high-probability events. This is what people often call "finding certainty in uncertainty."

As Kenichi Ohmae, the father of Japanese strategic consulting, said, a company's sustainable operating capability is reflected in "hedging against invisible future risks" and "laying out for the visible future." This is the core value of forecasting for business operations.

Let's first discuss the opportunities for laying out for the visible future in 2022.

Media + Channel Integration = Omnichannel Dividend

If the key to liquor marketing is price, then the lever for liquor products must be media + channels.

New channels with growth: The value of new channels depends on the completion of new technology infrastructure and the speed of consumer migration. With the arrival of the 5G era, and the family consumption structure where men are responsible for earning money and women for shopping, live-streaming e-commerce will maintain sustained growth on the basis of 1.05 trillion yuan in 2020 and 1.2 trillion yuan in 2021. However, the driving force for growth has shifted from "price" to 1P + demand growth.

Additionally, new products from some regional companies can leverage this brief dividend period to achieve their "hit product" plans.

Small trends in existing channels: Traditional channels such as liquor stores, catering, and KA are in a channel of declining cost-effectiveness due to intense competition, limited store owner energy, and shifts in consumer attention and shopping channels.

In contrast, new channel forms that focus on consumption scenarios + experience + group buying, customization, etc., have seen significant growth in the past two years, and are worth the attention and exploration of regional liquor companies.

However, this does not mean everyone should be anxious about tools like live-streaming. Instead, on the basis of good products, we should center on content and integrate creativity and media.

In the era of media-channel integration, build omnichannel scenarios (all scenarios where customers interact) and three-dimensional channels, making the cognitive consensus between target customers and enterprises more resonant, making the transaction experience better and easier, and making the relationship between both parties more beautiful.

Event Marketing + User Participation = Leverage Dividend

Marketing practitioners often regard whether a marketing activity can become a "marketing event" highly watched by the entire industry and region as the core standard for measuring planning level.

For example, in recent years, many company leaders have casually played "million-dollar salary to find top talent" or "open letters to the industry." Previously, bragging started at billions, and now it often starts at hundreds of billions. But these are all shallow-level operations aimed at turning marketing activities into marketing events.

To do event marketing well, one must be proficient in marketing, media communication, and public relations, and have rich practical experience. Otherwise, it either fails to take off or loses control, backfiring on one's reputation.

So, settling for the second best, leveraging upcoming major social hotspots to achieve a "four-two-thousand-pound" effect has become a basic subject that regional enterprises must do this year.

Sports year: The Beijing Winter Olympics from February 4 to March 4 is the first time China hosts the Winter Olympics, and it is held in Beijing and its surroundings. It is predictable that this will be one of the most important sports events of the year.

Another is the Asian Games from September 10 to 25, which is also a major event of national attention. It is foreseeable that in 2022, sports will definitely be a hot annual keyword.

Policy year: In the second half of this year, the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will definitely become the most significant political event of the year. Around the main topics of the meeting, such as technological innovation, common prosperity, and population, there will definitely be sustained social hot topics.

Key points: Modern brand marketing is no longer as simple as sponsorship + advertising; it has evolved into integrated marketing that combines brand participation + topic discussion.

For example, during the last World Cup, Vatti gas stoves' "If France wins, Vatti refunds all" created an event marketing that attracted national attention and discussion. Although it had a bit of luck, the approach was clear: user-participatory brand marketing.

Rise of Generation Z + Post-90s Entering Society = New Brand Dividend

The role of marketing is to influence the cognition of the target audience, thereby influencing their behavior, and ultimately forming a habit. But consumers can only remember the company's name, advertisements, and products, and ultimately only the brand. So the underlying logic of marketing activities is still to make the brand a "symbol of a better life."

Every 5-10 years, a batch of new brands emerges, which coincides with the growth period of a generation. For example, those born in 1980 and 1985, and 1985 and 1989, can be said that from 1980 to 1989 is one generation, with the turning point being 1985.

Each generation's growth is built on "some negation of the previous generation," so there are inevitably changes in values, which bring changes in consumption concepts, and new brand opportunities will inevitably appear.

If we assume that children start school at age 8 and graduate from university at age 23-24, then the most recent dividend period for new brand rise, and the biggest and most likely opportunity to seize, is the birth population of 20.57 million in 1996, 20.28 million in 1997, and 19.34 million in 1998. This is a large-scale "post-90s" entering society, bringing a dividend opportunity, because in subsequent years, the newborn population has been continuously decreasing at a rate of 500,000 to 1 million per year.

If you want to start a business in the liquor industry around the new generation of "post-90s" or want to make a career in innovation like "post-90s + social," these two years are a rare good opportunity. Perhaps the next Helens is already on the way.

Digitalization + Metaverse = New Model Dividend

In the past 2021, many celebrities and internet influencers overturned due to tax evasion and scandals, from Kris Wu, Viya, to Wang Leehom. This hurt the companies that cooperated with them and reminded many companies that want to find celebrity endorsements or influencer cooperation that it is increasingly risky.

On the other hand, the rise of the digital economy has accelerated in recent years, with concepts like the metaverse, NFT, and Web3 emerging one after another. Liu Yexi, the first internet celebrity of the metaverse concept, attracted 8.32 million fans on Douyin alone within a few months.

Compared to those celebrities and influencers, virtual IP idols are more malleable and have the advantage of not easily overturning. Once successfully created as a brand spokesperson, like Peppa Pig, they can continuously create more value for the brand.

Cost-performance + Emotional-value = Consumption Polarization Dividend

If we talk about market complexity, perhaps no market in the world is like China's, which has both 200-300 million middle-class consumers who, with increasing income, begin to pursue quality, sentiment, and brand, and more than 500 million small-town youth who value cost-performance. These two types of consumers are like two parallel worlds, living in their own worlds without disturbing each other.

French social thinker Jean Baudrillard said: "The difference in consumption is not in the difference in the use value of products, but in the difference in product symbols. People never consume the 'use value' of the product itself, but always treat the product as a symbol that can highlight their own aesthetics, consumption class, etc., or use it to join the desired group 'circle,' and as a member of a higher consumption ability and aesthetic 'circle,' to escape from a low-status group."

However, with the impact of the ongoing pandemic, the Sino-US trade war, and the continuous decline in birth rates, the economic situation has declined, and the trend of "consumption stratification" has shown particularities.

On the one hand, the middle class with consumption power has become more rational, and their consumption desire has begun to decline, adhering to the NoLogo principle. This explains why Muji and Uniqlo have become so popular in recent years. Platforms like Pinduoduo and 1688 have seen rising user numbers and transaction volumes, and "pingti" (affordable alternatives) has become a very hot internet term.

In practice, we have repeatedly used new products + new marketing methods to convert target consumers from high-priced famous liquor to high emotional-value products, helping many clients achieve rapid market share growth.

On the other hand, compared to the "small-town youth" group that values "cost-performance," the consumption upgrade group increasingly values "emotional-value" rather than simple "cost-performance."

"Emotional-value" means that the purchased product fits one's positioning, personality, and values. They will buy co-branded products for their favorite stars, and will buy out brands they like because of shared values.

For example: Erke, a domestic sports brand that donated 50 million yuan for the Zhengzhou flood disaster, has sold out multiple times.

Key points: Looking at all aspects, current liquor and food consumption has evolved into a binary differentiation era. Low desire needs to be ignited by "emotional-value."

The small-town youth consumer group also does not only value price, but relies on the extreme of hit product thinking. What ignites consumption enthusiasm is no longer the low-priced "Old Village Chiefs," but products like high cost-performance bottled Fenjiu, which is the future.

In 2022, we must not only see opportunities and dividends, but also prepare to hedge and resolve possible risks.

Facing Uncertainty: Risks to Hedge and Resolve

When a company is still relatively small, almost all operational risks are on the owner, which can be said to belong to one person or a few people.

But when a company grows larger, whether willing or not, it actually belongs to society. Once it operates poorly, it affects all aspects. Therefore, risk prevention will always be a top priority for companies.

1. "Black Swan" Risk for SMEs

What are the advantages of SMEs? Flexible operations, daring to fight and charge, and daring to try new models. The risks are small scale, poor cash flow, and not daring to make major operational decisions or personnel (senior management) mistakes, as well as sudden "black swan" events.

Like the COVID-19 pandemic in the past two years, the ones that quietly closed were SMEs that provided many job opportunities. Companies as large as Evergrande are not easy to go bankrupt.

Facing the uncertain pandemic and other natural disasters, SMEs must hold the red line of cash flow sufficient to support more than half a year. In 2022, they must live within their means and know how much money they have and how big things they want to do.

2. "Gray Rhino" Risk for Above-Scale Enterprises

The laws of economic development are cyclical, and the liquor industry also has cyclicality. Only by following the upward trend of the development cycle can you go more smoothly, faster, and better.

For example, in the projects we served in the past year, the sauce-flavor liquor project grew by more than 900%, and a small Qingxiang-flavor liquor company in Shanxi also achieved growth of more than 300%.

These growths are certainly related to the joint efforts of the management and project teams, but it cannot be denied that without Moutai's sauce-flavor dividend and Fenjiu's Qingxiang dividend, even if it could grow this fast, at least to achieve the same growth rate, more resources and energy would be needed.

Because using similar methodologies and more energy, the average growth rate of the strong-flavor projects we served was 32-80%. So it is better to be realistic, learn more, and practice more to go steadily and further.

The reason behind this is also simple. Besides the consumption reasons for sauce-flavor and Qingxiang-flavor liquor (sauce-flavor trend is hot, Qingxiang taste is more refreshing), the call to action (people who drink sauce-flavor have better careers, people who drink Qingxiang are younger), and timing matching (those who usually drink strong-flavor want to change taste), the critical point from quantitative change to qualitative change has arrived, meaning a new trend has emerged.

When a company is close to the direction of new trends, move forward. Otherwise, learn to preserve strength and learn to break the situation. There must be advances and retreats, not just advances.

3. Learn to Cope with and Resolve Crises

For business operations, risks are always present. If risks become too large and cannot be resolved in time, they become crises.

What should you do if a crisis really comes? Are there advance response plans and layouts? Can you turn danger into safety? This is the difference between excellent entrepreneurs and ordinary businessmen. They must not only win battles and make big money, but also learn to handle crises and clearly know what to do when encountering a crisis.

For example, in the liquor industry, look at how excellent companies resolve and break through crises:

The first is Jiangxiaobai. Tao Shiquan, a veteran in the liquor industry who came from Jin Liufu, avoided the existing market when starting his business. He started from the direction of youthfulness (creating new brands for intergenerational groups) and fashion in the niche market, using the "expression bottle" that resonates emotionally. He created a new category brand loved by the "post-90s" from the traditional liquor market. Despite many industry insiders not being optimistic and even predicting it would not survive more than a year, it has already become a new category player with annual sales of 3 billion yuan.

The second is Jiangxi Lidu. Although Lidu is an old distillery with many good resources, these resources were not visible in traditional play. But Commander Tang found a breakthrough in the "sense of identity" of participant experience, creating the "immersive experience" model—letting consumers understand Chinese liquor culture and the thousand-year "past" of Chinese liquor through immersive experiences. This also revitalized the long-established Lidu Distillery.

Conclusion: It is foreseeable that 2022 will be a year of dividends for some who are foresighted and can seize opportunities and trends, and also a year when slow-reacting and less aware companies will encounter more difficulties to resolve.

Under the same difficulties, excellent companies that can stand out are the good ones that will win more market share and reputation when spring comes.

In just over ten days, we will celebrate the Lunar New Year. For the upcoming new year, what trends and risks do you see? Welcome to leave a comment and share your insights.

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