Introduction: A Question at a Weekly Meeting At a weekly meeting of Qingshan Capital's investment department, while discussing a startup whose target users were positioned as young people aged 18-35, a colleague suddenly asked: "Why do the vast majority of startups target users under 35?" Because of this question, we reviewed the tens of thousands of startups we had interacted with in the past. The data showed that over 90% of entrepreneurs did not choose people over 35 as their product audience, especially those aged 35-60. The market ignores their existence, as if there is an invisible door at 35, and once you walk through it, you "fade into the dust." Many places treat 35 as a threshold: policy preferences, job hunting, marriage and childbearing concepts, etc. Some are hard rules, others are conventions. This door is built into the practicalities of life and into everyone's mind. This sparked our curiosity: people over 35 up to retirement age should be the main force of production and consumption, so why are they mostly ignored?
The Ubiquitous Dividing Line 35 in Policies Thus, we began researching this phenomenon. A large number of facts show that this door that young people are reluctant to enter is often set at 35. Housing, as the most watched demand in the domestic consumer market, has obvious preferential policies. Relevant policies have been issued over the years, and in 2022 they continued: policies for further education, household registration, and entrepreneurship are numerous.
For government-sponsored study abroad, doctoral applicants must be "under 35 with a master's degree" Wenzhou: "Intermediate workers under 35 can settle first and then find employment" Jiujiang Xiushui: "For full-time college graduates under 35, a 1,000 yuan settlement award is given, and 'move-in-ready' talent apartments are provided"
Preferential policies bypass people over 35, and companies also repeatedly ignore their existence. In addition to the startups mentioned at the beginning, mature enterprises and listed companies' annual reports and various research reports show the same attitude. There is little research on people over 35, but almost all reports mention the keyword "35" as a dividing line, carefully studying those under 35 and selectively ignoring those over 35. The absolute number and proportion of people under 35 have become measures of a region's youthfulness and market vitality.
"Target customer group is young people under 35" "The proportion of consumers under 35 is gradually increasing" "The average age of consumers has successfully dropped below 35" "The new goal is to create innovative products and corresponding promotions for consumers under 35"
35 in Marriage and Childbearing Concepts Young people who are unmarried by a certain age inevitably face pressure from family and society to marry. Initially, young people often need to debate fiercely with elders, but after a few years of struggle, a magical phenomenon appears: suddenly one day, elders stop nagging and urging, and friends stop enthusiastically introducing partners. When the urged young people ask in surprise, they learn that everyone has an age bottom line in their minds. Those who remain unmarried past this line are tacitly considered to have lost value in the marriage market and are labeled as no longer worth persuading. Although this view is unreasonable and not worth advocating, the reality is that even among parents who are very anxious to urge marriage, there is still this line beyond which they stop urging, and it is drawn at 35. Compared to cities with more open and diverse ideas, the marriage market in rural areas measures people's value more coldly and directly. Unmarried people are derogatorily called "bare branches," and those over 28 are considered "older." Research shows that older unmarried men in rural areas still have a chance to marry between 28 and 35, but it is significantly smaller than before 28; while unmarried men over 35 have basically lost the possibility of marriage. There is a psychological line at 35 for urging marriage, and an even more alarming line for urging childbirth. Various medical studies set 35 as the dividing line for advanced maternal age. Not having a child by 35 is basically seen as losing the possibility of pregnancy and childbirth unless "technology" is used. Even with assistance, the department classification of assisted reproductive institutions clearly states: high-age IVF clinic (age ≥35), appropriate-age IVF clinic (age <35).
35 in the Workplace As an age limit, 35 is most relevant to industries that rely on "youth," such as soldiers, streamers, and athletes. In the People's Liberation Army, the maximum service age is 35 for combat troops before reaching battalion commander and for non-combat troops before reaching company commander. A statistic from YY (a live streaming platform) on streamer ages showed that streamers over 35 accounted for only 7%. The retirement age for athletes is also mostly before 35. The Argentine World Cup victory at the end of 2022, which moved countless people, was precisely because Messi was on the edge of the end of his athletic career at 35, making it all the more precious.
The most common hard threshold at 35 is the civil service exam. The "Interim Provisions on the Recruitment of National Civil Servants" issued in 1994 required applicants to be "under 35 years old." In the following three decades, although the civil service recruitment regulations have been updated several times, this restriction has been maintained and reiterated. Civil service recruitment has a significant demonstration effect, and public institution exams and university teacher recruitment have also seen a 35-year-old upper limit. Most central and state-owned enterprises, and even some private enterprises, have gradually become accustomed to using "under 35" as a standard for job recruitment. Sichuan University published a study that surveyed 300,000 job advertisements over a decade, showing that more than 80% of social positions in Shanghai and more than 70% in Chengdu required applicants to be under 35. Hard barriers may not restrict most industries, but they can leverage more soft consensus. In internet companies, which are typical new economy industries that contribute a large number of jobs, employees at 35 often face the cruel reality of being laid off if they cannot be promoted. At the cliff of 35, if you cannot take off to become an executive, you fall and become a "graduate." They are replaced by literal "graduates." Before 35, you are human resources; after 35, you are a human cost. Just as the high school and college entrance exams are a threshold that blocks those who cannot prove themselves, 35 is an invisible threshold after entering society and the workplace. For those who have not proven themselves by this age, it may mean dismissal or being kept but unable to be promoted. In big tech companies, it means not becoming management. In the civil service system, it means political life is locked. A study collected the ages at which city party secretaries and mayors across the country were first appointed to the principal section level (zhengke), and found that their ages tended to converge around 28, with a maximum not exceeding 35. Prefecture-level cities are a very important key link in China's administrative system, playing a crucial role between provinces and counties. The state's cultivation and selection of prefecture-level cadres begins when they are at the principal section level. If one wants greater promotion opportunities within the system, the invisible ceiling for the age of appointment to principal section level is 35. The proportion of those promoted to principal section level is not small, but the age of promotion determines the height of development.
Why 35? Starting with the Popularity of the Midlife Crisis When did the "midlife crisis" become popular? In my memory, it was not long ago, only in the past one or two decades. The anxiety about 35 seems to be a refinement and advancement of the "midlife crisis" in recent years, becoming the beginning of the "Chinese-style midlife." The term midlife crisis did not always exist; it suddenly became popular at a certain time. To understand the source of the pressure of the "Chinese-style midlife" at 35, we must first start with the origin of the concept of the midlife crisis.
The term "midlife crisis" was coined by American psychoanalyst Elliott Jaques in 1965, when he was 48. His research starting point was simple: when people reach the midpoint of their lives, they realize that they will inevitably face death, that life is finite and abilities are limited, and therefore they feel a crisis. His examples were some artists in history who experienced a creative cliff around age 40. This research was neither rigorous nor aimed at the public, but it became popular in the United States. At that time, several things happened in the U.S. that made the midlife crisis theory prevalent, and many people applied it to themselves. The background of the era was that average life expectancy had just exceeded 70, and women were entering the workforce in large numbers. After life expectancy exceeded 70, the public began to pay more attention to life after their 40s and 50s. In their mid-40s, people began to have a strong sense of life being half over and seeing the end, a feeling of powerlessness. How to live the days after midlife? The anxiety fit perfectly under the hat of "midlife crisis." The large influx of women into the workforce directly put pressure on male employment. The midlife crisis was initially a topic mainly about men, mainly about limited career development and squeezed employment opportunities. In the 1960s and 1970s, the female employment rate in the U.S. had risen from less than 20% to over 40% compared to 50 years earlier during the first wave of feminism. In 1966, the largest women's organization, the National Organization for Women, was founded, and the second wave of feminism broke out, with the theme of criticizing sexism, arguing that mother, wife, and housewife should not be natural labels. With the pursuit of narrowing the differences between men and women, women further flooded into the job market, and the male midlife crisis broke out. In the 1970s and 1980s, U.S. media frequently published articles about the male midlife crisis, and with countless emotional resonances, the term was successfully coined and the midlife crisis became popular.
In China, the "midlife crisis" became popular starting in the 1990s. The earliest media record was in 1994, followed by emotional resonance and in-depth media coverage. Articles such as "Helping Your Husband Through the Midlife Crisis" (Party Member's Friend, December 1994, published by the Jilin Provincial Committee of the CPC), "When the Midlife Crisis Troubles Your Husband" (Health Care for Middle-Aged and Elderly, March 1995, published by China-Japan Friendship Hospital), "Male Midlife Crisis" (Medical Selection, May 1998, published by Guangxi Medical Information Institute), and "The Midlife Crisis Comes Quietly" (China Entrepreneur, September 2000, published by Economic Daily) spread the concept across the country.
The Obvious Difference in the Age Line of the "Midlife Crisis" Between China and the U.S. Two professors from Dartmouth College and the University of Warwick found that people in 55 countries hit their lowest point in mood at age 46, while in China it is 10 years earlier. A paper from the University of Pennsylvania showed that the age-income curve in the job market is an inverted U-shape, and the age at the top of the inverted U is called the "golden age." Before 2000, the "golden age" in both the U.S. and China was stable at around 50-55. After 2000, the U.S. remained unchanged, but China's golden age continued to decline, dropping to 35 after 2005.
The midlife crisis has become a basic concept abroad, objectively existing but not particularly hot, and it has always revolved around people in their 40s and 50s, without issues related to 35. But the "Chinese-style midlife" truly makes people enter a new stage of life starting at 35, encountering obstacles everywhere. This phenomenon widely affects the public. Why did China's midlife crisis become popular starting in 1994? And why did 35 gradually become the beginning of the "Chinese-style midlife"?
1994: The Gradually Disappearing Iron Rice Bowl We used to assume that as workers gain experience and work longer, they should naturally receive higher returns. But this idea is rooted in craftsmanship and artisan consciousness, and its essence is non-standardized production.
Industrialization means standardized production processes, automated assembly lines, and fixed equipment. At this point, labor is like a "screw," stamped with the key setting of industrialization: "replaceability." For an assembly line to operate normally, the most reliable way is to eliminate non-standardization and irreplaceability in each link. As industrialization progresses and goods shift from barter to large-scale transactions, the necessity of the market becomes prominent. Using the organizational form of enterprises for production, combined with the market economy for resource allocation, became the most effective development method. Although China's industrialization process had been advancing since the founding of New China, due to unstable political and economic policies, the overall process accelerated only with the deepening of market-oriented reforms in 1994, shifting from being solely government-driven to jointly driven by the government and private sectors. With the gradual emphasis on the decisive role of the market in resource allocation and the role of enterprises and entrepreneurs, the industrialization process developed rapidly. From 1994 to 1996, the profit share of state-owned industrial enterprises fell from 50.5% to 29.3%. The non-state economy (collective, individual, private, and foreign-funded economies) grew rapidly and gradually became the main body of the national economy, accounting for 71.5% of the total output value of all industrial enterprises. The proportion of urban workers in various types of work units changed after 1994 as follows: In 1996, the Ministry of Personnel's "Interim Measures for the Employment of College Graduates Not Assigned by the State" announced the formal end of the job assignment system for college graduates. Ma Yun, who graduated a few years earlier, was assigned as an English teacher. Liu Qiangdong wanted to be a county magistrate when he entered university, but he graduated in 1996 and had to find his own way. From then on, the term "dageda" (working for others) became popular. From 1998 to 2000, a total of 21.37 million workers were laid off from state-owned enterprises. Labor shifted from being replaceable in production design to being truly replaceable at any time. For the first time, ordinary Chinese people truly realized that without an iron rice bowl, jobs could be lost. When industrialization is combined with the market economy system, reducing costs and increasing efficiency becomes the key to all production, and labor costs are a subset of costs. Enterprises must comply with this inevitable mechanism brought by industrialization to win in market competition. The market economy brings survival of the fittest, with layoffs and downsizing, and thus pressure and crisis in the workplace and employment. In a nutshell, after 1994, labor had to compete for jobs, and employers needed to choose the most cost-effective labor, putting pressure on workers' career development. In the University of Pennsylvania study, the change in wages with age was decomposed into three parts: work experience, time effects (changes in average wage levels across years), and cohort effects (differences in worker ability across generations). They found that time and cohort effects were small in the U.S. across different eras, but in China, both had a huge impact. The wage changes brought by China's economic development and education levels far exceeded the value of individual work experience growth, so at a specific time cross-section, observing the relationship between wages and age, the peak is around 35. The chart clearly shows that in China, wages begin to decline with age starting at 35. In other words, 35-year-old employees are the most valuable. This is not the case in the U.S., nor was it the case in China before the 21st century. Physiologically, 35 is not the beginning of a comprehensive decline in physical and mental qualities; globally, midlife crises often only gradually appear in the 40s and 50s. China's "35-year-old crisis" in the past two decades has a more unique background: the high point of labor value has moved earlier due to rapid changes in industrial structure and workers' education levels.
The 21st Century: Industries Lean More Toward the Young In the past two to three decades, changes in China's industrial structure have placed newer demands on labor: physical strength, mental capacity, and learning and iteration ability, making young people more suitable workers.
After 1994, the market economy developed rapidly. Employment data shows that the primary industry declined, the secondary industry grew slowly, and the tertiary industry grew rapidly. Another major new node of reform and opening up came in 2001: China's accession to the WTO. We attracted a large amount of foreign investment, introduced a large amount of technology and management knowledge, and international trade gradually became an important industry. At the same time, the degree of product modularization increased, the divisibility of production processes increased, and "space-compressing" technologies such as information technology and transportation technology brought higher transaction efficiency and lower transaction costs. Logistics and IT also gradually became important industries. In the process of economic development, the importance of the capital market gradually emerged, and the financial industry also became an important industry.
According to the latest three decennial censuses, the proportion of employees in various industries has changed significantly. Internet, finance, real estate, leasing and business services, technology services, and transportation and logistics have all shown growth trends. Industries related to culture and content, such as news, design, and branding, have also developed rapidly. Although the total number of people in these industries is not large, their economic benefits and social opinion effects are clearly leveraged. Among them, especially the internet and finance have gradually become the most promising and most watched industries. In 2021, the Ministry of Commerce, the Cyberspace Administration of China, and the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for E-commerce Development," setting a goal to achieve 46 trillion yuan in e-commerce transaction volume by 2025, 17 trillion yuan in national online retail sales, and 70 million related employees. In 2020, the number of e-commerce-related employees exceeded 60 million, an increase of more than 27 million from 2015, with an average annual growth of 13%. The total employment in the financial industry is about 7.627 million, accounting for about 1% of the national employment of 769.77 million, but it contributes 5.5% of GDP and 12.4% of the tertiary industry's added value. The new economy-related industries that have gradually become more important in the evolution of the industrial structure all share a common feature: the rapid iteration of related knowledge and technology. Looking back today, the cycle from "immature" to "mature" and even further iteration for a new industry has become shorter and shorter over the past two to three decades. Playing a role in such industrial development requires excellent learning ability and an open mind. Moreover, the younger "natives" of the internet, mobile internet, and the AI era have advantages that predecessors cannot match. Tools are a concrete example; they are part of new knowledge. In industries such as internet, finance, content creation, and design, there are more and more tools for efficiency and coordination. The generation that grew up with new tools has a higher adaptability to them. Even now, as AI and AIGC become more developed, we must innovate and learn new ways of working with machines. Young people are gradually becoming the preferred choice, and the value of experienced workers is declining. The "35-year-old crisis" comes from facing the current market with what you learned at 25. Regarding openness to learning new things, British science fiction writer Douglas Adams described human nature: "Anything that is in the world when you're born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works. Anything that's invented between when you're 15 and 35 is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it. Anything invented after you're 35 is against the natural order of things and the beginning of the end of civilization as we know it until it's been around for about ten years when it gradually turns out to be alright really."
Data from the seventh census shows that the four industries with the highest proportion of employed people under 35 are information transmission, software and information technology services; culture, sports and entertainment; scientific research and technology services; and finance. These are precisely the main industries that are becoming increasingly important in the industrial structure change. Even in the so-called "traditional industry" with the largest employment—manufacturing—the sub-sectors such as computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, and pharmaceutical manufacturing, which are developing advanced manufacturing, have a relatively higher proportion of employees under 35.
Young People with High-Value Majors Are in Oversupply The change in industrial structure inevitably favors young people. What exacerbates the market clearing of labor over 35 is the fact that the overall evolution of young labor is too fast, and excellent young people are in oversupply. Since the expansion of university enrollment in 1998, the number of university graduates has grown rapidly, and the average education level of the new generation of workers has quickly surpassed that of the previous generation. In 2021, the number of college graduates reached 9.09 million, and it is expected to reach 10.76 million in 2022.
The human capital accumulated rapidly during the expansion of higher education has become the "demographic dividend" for popular industries. The improvement in the basic abilities of the new generation of young people has also raised their overall competitiveness compared to labor over 35, making companies face higher selection costs when dealing with middle-aged people. Companies' preference for people under 35 is not only about needing "younger" labor, but more importantly, needing "newer generations." This exists in almost all industries, not just some popular ones. The industrial structure is rotating and changing, but the judgment of the continuous influx of young people is lagging, and supply far exceeds demand. In 2021, 804 university majors were abolished, involving universities from 985 to private third-tier colleges. This number was basically below 100 before 2014, and has been climbing since then. They were all once popular majors, and some are still popular now. In November 2022, the Ministry of Education issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Employment and Entrepreneurship of 2023 National Ordinary College Graduates," which mentioned "timely eliminating disciplines and majors that do not meet the needs of society," and it immediately hit the hot search. The comments below the article mostly came from students who complained that their majors should be canceled because they are hard to find jobs. The top 10 most liked comments mentioned the following majors: e-commerce, marketing, English, tourism management, public affairs management, civil engineering, environmental science, finance, accounting, and materials. At a glance, these are all majors that were popular and relatively well-paid over the past two decades, and these majors also reflect a 20-year history of China's industrial development. From the underdeveloped marketization, to joining the WTO in 2001, the internet popularization in 2003, and the real estate boom in 2008, the popular majors in universities shifted from public management, international trade, and business English to computer science, e-commerce, advertising, media, architecture, and civil engineering, and now to internet and finance. Among the 10.76 million graduates in 2022, more than 1 million were fresh graduates in finance and economics. But according to past data, the annual number of jobs available in the national financial industry is about 150,000. In 2021, China had 7.55 million programmers, ranking second globally, and in 2020, this number was 6.52 million, an increase of 1.03 million in one year. Although programmers are the most mentioned industry in the 35-year-old crisis, it does not change people's enthusiasm. From 2017 to 2021, the enrollment of computer science majors in ordinary undergraduate programs continued to grow, reaching 360,000 in 2021, an increase of 38.4% compared to 2017.
"Programmers, network engineers, and database administrators constitute the main body of the IT republic. This class is the reproduction of the 19th-century industrial army in the 21st century, except that the labor has shifted from limbs to brains, but the intensity has increased. In the vast sea of program code and the maze of network software and hardware, they carry heavy burdens like dockworkers two hundred years ago, and work overnight like prostitutes. Information technology develops rapidly; except for the lucky few who climb to management, others' knowledge and skills quickly become outdated. New IT graduates swarm in like hungry termites, and the old (not old, mostly in their early 30s) are pushed aside, replaced and abandoned, but the newcomers have no satisfaction, as this is also the not-too-distant prospect for most of them... This class is called the technological proletariat." — Science fiction novel "April 1, 2018" Liu Cixin, 2009
China's market economy development, industrial structure changes, and the overall improvement of young labor quality over the past three decades have shaped a unique phenomenon rarely seen globally: the midlife crisis has advanced, and the "Chinese-style midlife" makes people face completely different living conditions starting at 35.
However, as labor or consumers, the "Chinese-style midlife" aged 35-60 are selectively ignored by enterprises. What are their characteristics, what are they doing, and should they really be ignored? We try to push open the door to the "Chinese-style midlife" and take a closer look at the people inside.
Characteristics of the Chinese-Style Midlife Population Population According to WHO standards and China's retirement regulations, 60 is the next door from middle age to old age, and it is also the time when the significance of career development in life suddenly diminishes. Therefore, we set the statistical range as people aged 35 to 60. We call them the "Chinese-style midlife."
Compared to the Z generation mentioned in previous series reports, the gender ratio of middle-aged people is very balanced across all regions. In terms of education level, the younger age groups of the middle-aged have significantly higher rates of bachelor's and associate degrees, several times higher than the older groups. The marital status of the middle-aged group shows that compared to young people and the elderly, the proportions of unmarried, divorced, and widowed are extremely small, with over 90% in stable marriages.
Occupation For those not working, the distribution of unemployment reasons is as follows. Among middle-aged people who are employed, losing jobs due to employer reasons is the most significant.
45.4% of middle-aged job seekers in first-tier cities have local household registration, indicating low mobility. Even if other cities have larger talent gaps, middle-aged job seekers are less willing to move with their families to other cities for employment, which is an important factor in their reemployment pressure. The service industry created by mobile internet has become the most common career choice for middle-aged career changers in recent years. The most well-known among them are ride-hailing drivers, food delivery riders, and couriers. A survey showed that 80.0% of middle-aged job seekers are willing to engage in new forms of employment, with 40.4%, 39.9%, and 10.6% considering life services, e-commerce, and food delivery riders and couriers, respectively. Entering the "service industry" from different fields is a test of mindset. But over time, this change is not difficult. Income determines quality of life, and when the granary is full, people know etiquette. When food delivery, courier, and Didi drivers earn over 10,000 yuan a month, the industry gradually gains respect and is not considered lowly. Barbers, fitness trainers, real estate agents... many service workers earn tens of thousands a month, drive luxury cars to work, and change their fine clothes into work uniforms, earning more than those they serve, which is becoming an increasingly common sight.
Consumption The habit of e-commerce consumption among the middle-aged group is rapidly forming, and their share of total user transaction value is increasing. Interestingly, the middle-aged group accounts for 38% of the total population, and in 2022, their online shopping transaction value also accounted for 38%. Since the middle-aged group's online shopping habits are generally not as high as young people's, their offline consumption share is higher. This cross-comparison can support the fact that middle-aged people's actual consumption capacity is stronger than other age groups.
In the online consumption structure, compared to 2019 before the pandemic, the three categories with the largest increase in share in 2022 were medicine, nutrition and health care, and jewelry and accessories. There are 10 first-level categories with an average annual growth rate of over 50% in transaction value in the past three years. It can be seen that health and family-related consumption demand has grown strongly, and there are also "niche categories" with strong DIY attributes such as industrial products and agricultural materials and gardening. If we focus on the unique preferences of the middle-aged group, we can find them through their preference coefficients for various categories (the group's transaction value share in that category / all users' transaction value share in that category - 1). A value greater than 0 indicates that compared to other age groups, middle-aged people prefer this category more, and the larger the number, the stronger the preference. In the top ten first-level categories, the obvious consumption focus of middle-aged people can be seen: take care of your health, drink well and have fun. Read and DIY at the same time. The "age-revealing" unique hobbies of middle-aged people seem to come from a convergence of mindsets: no matter how different their preferences were when young, by 35, they inevitably fall into "wearing gold and silver, playing with jewelry, fishing, camping, and marathons." According to the "China Gold and Jewelry Consumption Survey White Paper," the consumption proportion of the 35-50 age group in gold stores currently reaches 82%. Returning to nature is also a trend, with bonsai and flowers being planted and outdoor activities being pursued. Gardening tools sell rapidly, and outdoor brands like Skechers, Biemlfdlkk, and Arc'teryx have anchored and successfully captured the 35-50 age group. As people age, their color preferences change significantly. Middle-aged people's preference for blue decreases, while their preference for green and red increases. The change in color preference is attributed to the yellowing of the eye lens and the decrease in sensitivity to blue in cone cells with age. This has also become the underlying reason for aesthetic changes such as gradually liking nature more, getting close to the outdoors and plants, and the colors chosen in clothing consumption. The middle-aged group has better economic strength than young people, but in many categories, their consumption power seems insufficient because they are mainly paying for rigid needs: houses and cars. 35 is basically the common age for buying a house. In 2021, data from the Beike Research Institute showed that the median age of home buying in 35 cities was 35. The automobile industry is even more deeply bound to this group. When collecting research reports related to 35, almost only the automobile industry treats people over 35 as core users. Reports show that the average age of car buyers in China in 2020 was 35, and it is predicted to approach 40 by 2025. From 2021 to 2030, the proportion of men over 35 buying cars will exceed 40%. "The 'uncle' who replaces cars, mainly post-80s men, will become the new main body of the Chinese car market. The strategic focus of car companies and dealers should accelerate the transformation from youth-oriented to middle-aged-oriented." This phrase "should accelerate the transformation from youth-oriented to middle-aged-oriented" stands out in many reports like a car driving in the wrong direction on a highway. 35 is not without consumption power, but the heaviest burden is on them, so rationality is also reflected in some details of their consumption behavior. On the other hand, in places that are "less rational" and require impulse and novelty, they appear less frequently. In the contribution rate of cosmetics sales growth, people aged 15-35 account for 70%. 86% of Xiaohongshu's female users are under 35, and 96% of active influencer followers are under 35. In digital collectibles, users under 35 account for 71%. In the mobile game market, players under 35 account for 63%. Among the four major "national otome games," the highest proportion of users over 35 is 2.4%, and in the largest user base game "Love and Producer," users over 35 account for less than 1%. E-sports users under 35 account for 94%. When startups are in their early stages, mature companies are launching new products and pursuing growth, they need users who are interested and enthusiastic about new things, and have the impulse and acceptance to try new products and services. The characteristics of middle-aged people, such as habitual consumption, large expenditures on housing and cars, having seen the world, high education costs, and family rather than independent decision-making, may explain why companies choose to relatively ignore and not care much about middle-aged people. Most mobile internet products indeed target young people as the main users, but among the active users of the six major reading apps, those over 35 account for 25-40%, which is not a small number. They spend money for their families, and also for their own interests and free time. Globally, compared to new forms of entertainment like short videos, long videos and social networking sites are also more suitable for middle-aged people, which is related to the fact that they have more time to kill.
Internet companies are all competing for "total national time," and the 35-60 age group is the group with the longest waking hours.
Middle-aged people have unique social recommendation-based purchasing habits, habits of watching long videos and long-form content, and decision-making approaches oriented toward experience rather than efficiency. Data related to Channels (WeChat's video feature) shows that the average age of Channels users is 10 to 15 years older than Douyin users, which is exactly in the middle-aged stage. Official WeChat data shows that the number of enterprises with private domain revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan reached 5 this year, and the number of enterprises with revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan reached 40. The future e-commerce system of WeChat behind Channels may be supported by middle-aged people, becoming a huge force to release the consumption power of middle-aged people.
Summarizing the consumption characteristics of the middle-aged group above, it can be found that they are still the main force of the market. They bear the burden of housing and cars, and also have their own consumption preferences. Middle-aged people may not be the most novelty-seeking and impulsive consumers, but they are absolutely a purchasing force that cannot be ignored. The consumer market should not ignore them, and in the workplace, they also have the potential to "old horse in the stable, still aspiring to run a thousand miles." A survey of nearly 3,000 Chinese leaders and 16,000 leaders from over 50 countries showed that the 36-45 age group is the largest age group of leaders. In 1963, Cattell divided human intelligence into two types: fluid and crystallized. Fluid intelligence is based on neurophysiology, improves with the maturation of the nervous system, and is relatively unaffected by education and culture, such as mechanical memory, classification, and graphic relations. Crystallized intelligence is acquired through social and cultural experience, such as vocabulary, verbal comprehension, and general knowledge, based on information stored in memory. Fluid intelligence begins to slow down after adolescence and declines starting at 30; crystallized intelligence develops later, continues to rise in young adulthood, and maintains its level until old age. The application of crystallized intelligence allows people to make greater achievements with more wisdom. At 35, Ma Yun entered e-commerce; at 36, Dong Mingzhu started selling air conditioners; at 40, Lei Jun entered the mobile phone market; at 41, Cao Dewang founded Fuyao Glass; at 43, Ren Zhengfei started Huawei's entrepreneurship. Even if they are not these dominant big entrepreneurs, ordinary workers entering 35 are also a force to be valued. The past thirty years of China's development have relied on these 500 million people, and have also created their current situation of being squeezed by the times. Is this social structure healthy and sustainable? How should they be accepted by the new industries and markets of society? Through the above research, we have deduced a new possibility, which we may see in the next two to three decades.
New Ideas for the Chinese-Style Midlife Society: From a Manufacturing Powerhouse to a Service Powerhouse? The phenomenon of the "Chinese-style midlife" is caused by the resonance of China's industrial structure changes and rapid economic development over the past thirty years with the internet and AI era. Currently, the 35-year-old crisis is almost unique to China. Development problems must ultimately be solved by development.
Labor Force Reverse Shaping Compared to capital factors, China's 750 million labor force has played a more profound role in economic growth and development over the past thirty years. In the early days of reform and opening up, China's economic takeoff relied on labor-intensive manufacturing. Countless workers, through improved education and skills, developed from unskilled to skilled workers, making great contributions to rapid economic growth. After joining the WTO and the gradual development of the information industry and more technology industries, the shift from the secondary industry to the tertiary industry is an inevitable trend. The structural changes that make middle-aged people unemployed are also creating new employment suitable for them. The service industry, especially new services, will carry new value creation and absorb the middle-aged labor force. We can see that the role of communities in life is becoming increasingly obvious, and related life service needs increasingly require mature industries to support. Maintenance, repair, gig work, social work, confinement nannies, babysitters, nursing, cleaning. The release of a large amount of labor and the desire to earn income may create new demand. For example, perhaps one day, everyone can have their own butler, life assistant, hobby companion, and sports coach.
Rapid Formation of New Services To shape a true service powerhouse, more and newer forms of service industries need to emerge. In the future, the internal circulation of China's economy will rely not only on the manufacturing and consumption of goods, but also more on the multi-level circulation of the service industry. A large number of laborers will provide richer services, and at the same time, everyone will be a consumer of new services. This is both the digestion of labor and the actual improvement of quality of life. Many interesting new service directions are gradually emerging. For example, restoration of old items, traditional handicraft production, phone framing, pet funerals, doll transformation, and home organization. Short and long videos on social media have made many new business forms and old craftsmen in corners that are not easily seen increasingly popular. Not to mention doing big business, but supporting their own living income is completely fine. Many new professions are forming. These broad service industries can be summarized as "anti-industrialization." The pursuit of efficiency in commodity production processes is standardized, tools are increasingly developed, and producers are increasingly young; while another type of service or product pursues warmth, cares about emotional connection, serves people's sociality, and eliminates loneliness. Aging-related needs have also given rise to many new professions. Imagine from the details: for example, if you cannot bathe yourself, how would life be? Another example is medical accompaniment, helping elderly patients with transportation, registration, payment, and picking up medicine. Elderly portrait photographers, age-friendly renovation designers, ghostwriters for memoirs, and nursing home evaluators are also gradually emerging. The aging problem brought by the elderly is becoming increasingly serious, and the development of robots is not yet sufficient to complete fine work. For services and respect for the elderly, those who have experienced the trials of life are the most able to calm down, and those who have personally felt aging are the most able to empathize. The service industry of middle-aged people for the elderly is a sustainable path. In addition to these new types of work that are still forming, the types of new services officially recognized by the state are also increasing. After the update of the National Occupational Classification Dictionary in 2015, a new version was released again at the end of 2022, adding more than 150 occupations, many of which are new service occupations. For example, conference reception service specialists, health care workers, community health assistants, forest and garden wellness specialists, homestay butlers, study tour instructors, family education instructors, and online learning service specialists. With the development of technology and the optimization of systems, most people will lose their identity on the assembly line, but they will enter the service industry to create and exert new value.
Creating a Chinese-Style Labor Structure In the past two decades, the huge labor resources have supported China's transformation into a manufacturing powerhouse. The systematic overflow of the "Chinese-style midlife" labor force caused by industrial structure changes will transfer and give rise to the rapid development of China's service industry. Since we are facing a labor structure change unprecedented globally, we believe that we will also seek opportunities in crisis and form the possibility of a completely new labor structure development that the world has never seen. Deloitte predicts that by 2030, three-quarters of China's labor force will be under 35. If this prediction holds, China will only have 300 million labor force. We predict another possibility: by 2030, China will still have 700 million labor force, of which two-thirds will be engaged in various service industries. In the next twenty years, China will transform from a manufacturing powerhouse to a service powerhouse, not only in terms of domestic employment, but also in exporting service capabilities globally. The "Chinese-style midlife" is a phenomenon and a result, and may also be the driving force and reason for us to embark on a "Chinese-style new path."
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