During the National Day holiday, baijiu has become popular again. On one hand, workplace professionals held weddings during the long holiday, increasing demand for baijiu; on the other hand, in friend gatherings, drinking a few cups has become a common way to enhance emotional communication. The recent stock market performance has added fuel to this phenomenon. On September 30, within 35 minutes of market opening, A-share trading volume exceeded one trillion yuan, setting a historical record, leading many investors to see hope for the long-depressed baijiu stocks to return to their peak. In some grassroots investment groups that had been silent for years, people who had not spoken for a long time began to become active. Someone popped up and asked: "Is it still too late to buy baijiu stocks now?" It seems they have forgotten the experience of being beaten in the past few years: bottom-fishing halfway up the mountain, wanting to average down, but ending up in a "big pit," losing more than half over several years. Although many young people do not like drinking, they are keen on buying baijiu stocks and funds. This contradictory psychology towards baijiu is exactly what the internet slang says: "bad at it but still love to play." Young people are the future of consumption. Can baijiu, which is losing young people, find its future through the stock market turnaround? Milk tea "takes over," baijiu becomes a "spare tire" The National Day holiday has always been a peak period for weddings, which should be the peak season for baijiu consumption. However, some young people who do not follow the conventional path have brought a significant impact to the traditional baijiu market. Some couples choose to hold their wedding at McDonald's, drive a Beetle to pick up food, and even have McDonald's employees put the wedding rings in the fries. Using burgers and fries instead of the traditional wedding feast's seafood and meat... Netizens can't help but wonder: How did the couple convince their parents? Slightly more "conservative" couples, although unable to resist the wedding's tedious formalities, have put some thought into the toasting segment. For example, they use popular milk tea instead of red wine or baijiu to toast guests, and even changed the classic slogan of a strong liquor brand to "Milk tea is good, but don't drink too much." For young people, baijiu and milk tea are two extremes: one makes you drunk, and today no one wants to leave sober; the other keeps you awake, and today no one wants to sleep. In the eyes of young people, someone has to break tradition. Their wedding should reflect the characteristics of the younger generation, focusing on happiness, and no longer fearing being forced to drink at the wedding banquet. Xu Qing from Shenzhen is such a bride pursuing a personalized wedding. After getting engaged in October last year, she began to carefully prepare for her dream wedding, from Western-style wedding dress to Chinese-style bridal process, every detail she personally participated in. Xu Qing admitted that she was extremely nervous because just the makeup and styling took 4 hours, and time was really tight. Xu Qing, who personally handles every detail, is quite casual about the toasting segment. At her engagement banquet last year, she used a large cup of milk tea instead of baijiu to toast the elders. "After changing into the toasting dress, most guests had already left, so I simply stopped pretending and directly used milk tea. It was refreshing and sweet, quenching thirst." Xu Qing said that at her wedding on October 4 this year, she planned to do the same. In her view, the relatives and friends around her are relatively casual, and no one objected to not using baijiu for toasting. Getting married is definitely about the happiness of the bride and groom. Moreover, the scene of young people raising cups of milk tea together is much more photogenic than toasting with baijiu, and posting it on social media will earn a wave of praise. Besides being unconventional, economic affordability is also a reason why young people choose milk tea. Shen Jie, a post-95 bride, has never liked the drinking culture since childhood and dislikes the endless toasting during meals. By chance, she saw on Xiaohongshu someone using milk tea for toasting, and inspiration struck. She set up a large display table at her wedding, neatly arranging a table full of milk tea. Not only children and peers had a cup each, but also the elders followed suit and drank milk tea. Compared to high-end baijiu costing five or six hundred yuan per bottle, a cup of milk tea costing only a dozen yuan is obviously more cost-effective. In Shen Jie's view, the wedding is mainly about being casual. Those who like baijiu can indulge, and milk tea provides a novel and reasonable "official drink" for those who do not drink. It's not easy to love baijiu For many young people, baijiu is not very popular because it "burns the throat, goes to the head, and causes blackouts when drunk." Nevertheless, in the workplace, especially in business banquets, dealing with high-end baijiu like Moutai is almost inevitable. However, where to buy Feitian Moutai has become a headache for young people who usually do not drink. In July this year, Zhou Yang, a new workplace entrant from Zhejiang, planned to buy two bottles of Feitian Moutai. But the common counterfeiting methods such as "pulling head" wine, "drilling hole" wine, and "label swapping" wine circulating online made Zhou Yang deeply distrustful of buying Feitian Moutai online. After careful consideration, Zhou Yang decided to go to a nearby Moutai official direct-sale store in person. To ensure everything was foolproof, Zhou Yang did his homework in advance: a real Moutai direct-sale store will clearly mark the Chinese and English names and logo of "Kweichow Moutai," and the store is decorated with facing dragon patterns on both sides; while those stores that only advertise "Moutai sauce aroma, shared by ten thousand families" also use the Moutai brand logo but do not sell Feitian Moutai; they sell "regular goods." As for other places that use the words Moutai Town or Moutai liquor, they basically have nothing to do with Feitian Moutai. But when Zhou Yang walked into the store, thinking he could pay and pick up the goods on the spot, he was told by the clerk: "Did you make an appointment? Without an appointment, you can't pick up the goods today." Faced with this sudden situation, Zhou Yang, who had no experience in buying liquor, was very surprised. Following the clerk's suggestion, Zhou Yang downloaded the iMoutai app and learned that he could make an appointment on channels such as Tmall, JD.com, Suning, and NetEase Yanxuan to buy Feitian Moutai at the official guide price of 1,499 yuan. Since then, Zhou Yang set multiple alarms every day to remind himself to participate in the limited-time flash sales on various platforms on time. Despite mobilizing the whole family to try together, in more than a month, they failed to grab a single bottle of Moutai at the original price. Helpless, Zhou Yang could only go to a tobacco and liquor store recommended by a friend. Although many news reports say that the price of Feitian Moutai is falling, and in some areas the recycling price has dropped to 2,100 yuan, the quotation at the tobacco and liquor store did not drop significantly, still as high as 2,480 yuan per bottle. As for authenticity, it all depends on the merchant's promise of "genuine." If you want to use the store's X-ray machine to check whether it is a drilled or pulled-head bottle, you need to pay a testing fee of 20 yuan per bottle. "If you don't want it, you can buy it elsewhere. Do you know how much electricity it takes to start the X-ray machine?" The tobacco and liquor store seemed to look down on this small business and was ready to drive people away. In the end, Zhou Yang paid an extra 40 yuan, scanned the bottle with X-ray, and then left with the goods. As digital natives, the post-00s generation has long been accustomed to online shopping, discounts, and free returns and exchanges. They even dare to reform the workplace. How could they endure such humiliation? When you pay money to buy Moutai but still get treated like this, it's understandable why young people increasingly do not like drinking baijiu. The myth of baijiu stocks continues? Not drinking baijiu but keen on investing in baijiu stocks—this contradictory psychology is particularly evident among young investors and is vividly reflected in stock price fluctuations. At the beginning of 2021, the baijiu industry was experiencing a super bull market. At that time, Deng Kai, who worked at a major internet company, was extremely excited every day and would promote his wealth-building tips to everyone he met: left hand new energy, right hand baijiu, reaching the peak of life. At that time, the "Moutai Index" and "Ning Wang" were soaring, making him see a future of financial freedom and early retirement. However, the market suddenly turned downward, and Deng Kai, who entered the market at a high point, was unsurprisingly trapped. Should he cut losses or average down and wait for a reversal? Brainwashed by star fund managers with "long-termism," Deng Kai resolutely chose the latter, continuously averaging down during the decline, trying to lower his holding cost and break even sooner. After persisting for a year, from the mountaintop to halfway down, after running out of ammunition, Deng Kai could only watch the fund's net value free-fall. Even with the A-share surge in the last week of September this year and the collective rise of the baijiu sector, Deng Kai's investment still lost more than 32%. Young people invest in baijiu, precisely "bottom-fishing" at the mountaintop With the arrival of a new round of stock market rise, the investment group Deng Kai is in has become active again. Although everyone jokes about being "leeks," for this sudden market, those who missed the boat can't help but ask: "Is there still a chance to buy baijiu stocks now?" Some complain that their previous investments haven't broken even and they have no money to add positions. The group's opinion leaders believe that liquor companies have good performance and their value is undervalued. In an uncertain market environment, the hardest hit are the middlemen. The "2024 China Baijiu Market Mid-Year Research Report" released by the Market Professional Committee of the China Alcoholic Drinks Association shows that 80% of liquor companies said the market has cooled; the most pressured are distributors and retailers, with over 60% reporting increased inventory, over 30% facing cash flow pressure, over 40% reporting increased actual sales inversion, and 50% reporting reduced profit margins. Despite this, against the backdrop of intensified performance divergence, leading liquor companies still performed relatively well. Taking Moutai as an example, despite its poor stock performance, it achieved revenue of 83.451 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.56%, and net profit of 41.696 billion yuan, an increase of 15.88%. Wuliangye also delivered impressive results, with first-half revenue of 45.506 billion yuan, up 10.39%, and net profit of 17.037 billion yuan, up 12.83%. In addition, liquor companies such as Yanghe, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu all had revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan. However, ordinary brands of baijiu are in a more difficult situation. Hou Hao, the fund manager of China Merchants CSI Baijiu Fund, known as the "Baijiu No.1" by fund holders for heavily holding baijiu, believes that the overall demand recovery of the baijiu industry depends on the recovery of macroeconomic activities and policy support. Currently, there is a clear trend of concentration among leading companies, and those with strong barriers and good business models have long-term investment value. It is worth noting that Kweichow Moutai announced on September 20 that it plans to use its own funds to repurchase company shares worth 3 billion to 6 billion yuan. This is the first repurchase in Moutai's 23 years since listing. Many industry institutions believe that "the hangover will eventually pass," and baijiu valuations will ultimately be linked to performance and need to withstand the test of performance. Entering late September, the A-share market experienced an epic surge. On September 30, the last trading day before the National Day holiday, within just 35 minutes of opening, A-share trading volume broke through the trillion yuan mark, and the full-day turnover reached a record 2.56 trillion yuan. The China Merchants CSI Baijiu Index is expected to rise nearly 9%. Faced with this sudden market, both those who can drink and those who cannot are "drunk." Just like baijiu, young people may not initially understand its charm, but with the growth of experience and social accumulation, they come to appreciate its unique flavor. Similarly, investors who have experienced the ups and downs of baijiu stocks, even after years of downturn, cannot forget the cinnabar mole on their chest that is baijiu.