Recently, I've been thinking: how can one stay popular? I've observed that the popularity curves of different things can be roughly divided into five categories: The first type is a cliff-like rise. A typical example is Perfect Diary. Its popularity was like a flash in the pan, rising quickly and then declining rapidly. The second type of popularity curve is like a long snowy slope. Andy Lau, Jackie Chan, Tony Leung, Coca-Cola, and Nike all follow this pattern. They discovered "very wet snow" and "very long slopes." Once they became popular, their resources and energy accumulated like a snowball, allowing them to stay at the top of the industry and lead trends. The third type is stepwise, like Microsoft or Li-Ning, with intermittent rises. They have experienced business lows but also have the ability to create a second curve. For example, Li-Ning once fell into "brand aging" but returned to the peak by leveraging the "Guochao" (national trend) movement. The fourth type of popularity curve is a sudden sharp rise. Actors like Zhang Songwen, Zhou Yiwei, and Lei Jiayin, and brands like Laoganma, give the impression of overnight fame. They were unknown for years, toiling in their fields, and then burst into prominence at a certain moment, continuing to be popular. The last type of popularity curve is like your heartbeat: stable and lukewarm most of the time, only occasionally getting a small boost from special stimuli. For example, when "Candle in the Tomb: The Lost Caverns" was released, Pan Yueming, who had been quiet for years, became popular for a while but soon returned to normal. Similarly, the ice cream brand Dongbei Daban had a few small surges due to nostalgia and cheap prices, but it has now cooled down. Although I've categorized various types of popularity, my research reveals a sad fact: there may be many reasons for not being popular, but long-lasting brands share common traits. As Tolstoy said, "Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way." For instance, Shi Hang became famous by arguing with Guo Jingming's fans. He was only the sixth screenwriter of "The Bronze Teeth" but became a popular screenwriter by networking and riding trends, only to fall from grace recently due to sexual harassment allegations. Zhang Tongxue used technical techniques to show the rough life of northeastern men, gaining 18 million followers in two months, but then quickly returned to obscurity because his repetitive content failed to satisfy users' picky tastes. So, what's the difference between "becoming popular" and "staying popular"? I want to explain this using marketing logic. I believe: All brands that sustain popularity firmly grasp the consumer's "consumption motivation," while brands that merely become popular deviate from that motivation sooner or later. In the past two years, two places in Shandong, China, have become popular: Zibo and Caoxian. The obscure Caoxian came into the public eye because a local internet celebrity shouted slogans like "Shandong Heze Caoxian 666, better to have a bed in Caoxian than a house in Pudong," attracting exaggerated imitations from many influencers. As more people paid attention to Caoxian, its coffin and Hanfu industries were unearthed. Zibo, on the other hand, became popular because during the pandemic lockdown, a group of college students made a pact with the Zibo government to come and eat barbecue when spring arrived. Grateful students posted their videos on Douyin, and after influencer amplification, Zibo barbecue became famous overnight. I dare to assert that Zibo will remain popular longer than Caoxian. Caoxian's fame is just a catchy slogan and a gimmick, while Zibo's fame is rooted in the humanistic care of the Zibo government and the product of Zibo barbecue. People will travel to Zibo for barbecue, but they won't visit Caoxian to buy coffin boards or Hanfu. I call this phenomenon "misalignment of consumption motivation." Misalignment of consumption motivation: The point of popularity is not the consumption motivation of the product. In March last year, the live-streaming room "Meishaonv Haigou Go," which once sold millions per month, added the words "dissolving" to its account. It initially became popular for its "rave-style selling." In the live stream, they rarely introduced product information or selling points, but always said things like "just buy for fun." In my view, the demise of "Meishaonv Haigou Go" was inevitable. Because the live stream blurred the purpose of viewers entering the room; when more people came to watch the show than to buy, your live stream turned from "selling goods" into a "performance." For a live-stream room, people enter with the motivation to buy, not to watch a show. The core motivations that trigger purchases should be "low price," "high quality," and "novel products," while peripheral motivations include "whether the host is attractive" and "whether the atmosphere is fun." People consume for many reasons, academically called "consumption motivations." But it's worth noting that some motivations are short-lived, while others are more enduring. For example, when we buy a drink at a convenience store, there are many motivations:

  • Addictive taste
  • Quenching thirst in summer
  • Just on sale
  • Attractive packaging
  • Limited edition collaboration
  • Recommendation from companions If we classify all possible consumption motivations, we can simply group them into two concentric circles. The closer a user's motivation is to the core, the more likely they are to consume based on the product or service itself, making the behavior persistent and stable. The closer to the periphery, the more likely it's random consumption, occasional and non-sustained. The simplest way to measure whether something will be short-lived is to see: Is the point of popularity close to its core consumption motivation? Hegang became popular for its low housing prices, but people don't travel to Hegang for tourism or employment because of low prices, and the government can't use housing prices as a city marketing tool. Mohe became popular because of "Mohe Dance Hall," but after the song's popularity faded, the trend of visiting Mohe to find the dance hall also cooled. For all "long-lasting" cities, our travel motivations seem more "essential." Aranya attracts people from all over the world because it sells a community lifestyle, not just real estate. Wuyuan sees a steady stream of visitors because rapeseed flowers have become its scenic landmark. In brand promotion, we must be especially careful about "misalignment of consumption motivation." Look at the outcomes of Erke and China Li-Ning: when motivations are misaligned, popularity is fleeting. Erke can't rely on patriotic enthusiasm to drive GMV, so its sales will gradually return to mediocrity. But Li-Ning became popular because of the national trend; "trend" naturally aligns with sportswear, so Li-Ning's popularity is more enduring. Xianhe Zhuang became popular for "meeting celebrities while eating hotpot," but we can't eat hotpot every day just to meet celebrities. So, Xianhe Zhuang's collective store closures tell us that using gimmicks to attract customers is doomed to fail. If we look at the entertainment industry, we see that some people are popular in a "healthy" way, while others are "unhealthy." This doesn't mean that some stars rely on scandals or vulgar topics for traffic, but that many stars' popularity isn't focused on the public's core consumption motivations. For example, Yuan Shanshan has always promoted the persona of "Queen of Abs." But this persona hasn't been integrated with her work. Her films, TV shows, and even endorsements rarely feature roles that are athletic or inspirational. Moreover, many actresses have similar abs. In contrast, Peng Yuyan gained fans through extreme self-discipline and physique, rising to the ranks of male gods. His series of works—gymnast in "Jump Ashin!," boxer in "Unbeatable," cyclist in "To the Fore"—all reinforce his persona. Photo of Peng Yuyan in "Jump Ashin!" Remember, the best kind of popularity is when it's rooted in the product and service itself. The closer you are to the product and service, the more tangible benefits your popularity brings. This principle applies even to short-lived internet-famous restaurants. For example, there are two cat-themed internet-famous restaurants. One launched a golden chinchilla afternoon tea set, including cat-poo-flavored coffee, cat-head-shaped scones, and cat-fur-shaped cotton candy. The other restaurant just has the cat itself. It's easy to imagine that even if the afternoon tea set is mediocre, people will at least order a set at the first restaurant. At the second, they might order one latte for three people, pet the cat for two hours, take 50 photos, and leave. This is a good warning for brand marketing: don't deliberately focus on peripheral consumption motivations, or your downfall is only a matter of time. The most common peripheral consumption motivations are the following six. Check if you've fallen into any:
  • Celebrity effect
  • Promotional discounts
  • Entertainment topics
  • Public welfare effect
  • Space check-ins
  • Peripheral benefits Celebrity effect When we use super influencers like Li Jiaqi to sell products, we must understand: Is Li Jiaqi using his super traffic to build you up, or are you using your super low prices to build Li Jiaqi? After Li Jiaqi brings you huge GMV, ask yourself: Did customers buy because of Li Jiaqi's recommendation, or because of Li Jiaqi himself? Promotional discounts Miniso can sell 9.9 yuan eyeliner pens all year round, but it won't sell eyeliner pens at 5.9% discount all year. We must understand: customers can buy you for low prices, but don't let them buy you because they're used to discounts. There's a huge difference. Low price is a cost advantage, meaning the company has strong procurement and supply chain management. But discounting is breaking your own rules. Too many discounts mean the company is poorly managed and has no bottom line. Customers buy quality products at good prices to affirm the company's integrity. Customers buy discounted products to take advantage of the company. Entertainment topics The public feud between Da S and Wang Xiaofei brought attention to Ma Liuji and Zhang Lan's live-stream room. But we must understand: Wang Xiaofei won't get divorced often, and even if he does again, it might not trend. I've eaten at Ma Liuji; the dine-in taste is good. I believe Ma Liuji's success is fundamentally because it's a good restaurant, just coincidentally boosted by the boss's scandal. Public welfare effect I think the deeds of Wang Laoji and Erke are not replicable. A company shouldn't rely on public welfare to gain traffic or steal business, or it will "throw a sprat to catch a herring." "Wild consumption" is called wild because wild things are nearly extinct. Space check-ins If a restaurant is full of customers checking in, they won't come back to eat after taking photos. If a café is full of girls photographing cats, no one will remember the taste of the coffee or the origin of the beans. Value your space and environment, but don't let the environment replace the product as the customer's first choice. Peripheral benefits In a county town, if you walk into a milk powder store, the owner might give you a cradle, bottles, nipples, milk maker, electric kettle, diapers, nursing pads, etc., in addition to selling you milk powder. Because milk powder is a product that babies rarely switch from and is repurchased long-term, and because milk powder stores are undifferentiated sales channels, county milk powder sellers sell social savvy, not products. Customers buy not just milk powder but milk powder plus peripherals. If you don't want to run your business like a county milk powder store, don't rely on peripheral benefits to attract customers. Inherent "double standards" There's another kind of motivation misalignment stemming from our inherent "double standards." We have different standards for different people and things. Suppose a sports star uses drugs, drinks heavily, gambles, and has affairs. Any of these could ruin a sports celebrity's commercial value. But there's one exception: Dennis Rodman. NBA star Rodman was a bad boy from the start, and people consumed his badness and rebellion. But if Zhang Jike had even 5% of Rodman's scandals, it would cost him many commercial deals. Tiger Woods' infidelity scandal also significantly reduced his commercial value. Similarly, Coconut Palm juice can play on the edge in live streams because its brand has always been on the edge, and people are used to its harmless mischief. But if Yili did the same, its market value might shrink by a billion in a week. So, maintaining stable consumption motivation is also a necessary condition for long-term popularity. The key to stability is resisting the fatigue of consumption motivation. Fatigue of consumption motivation: Why do some people become less valuable as they become more famous? Psychologist Zajonc once conducted an experiment where college students viewed a photo album of portraits and rated the people. The students didn't know the people; some appeared once, some ten times, some over twenty times. The result: the more frequently a person appeared, the more they were liked. But it's not that higher exposure always leads to more liking. Once exposure exceeds about twenty times, people become indifferent or even averse. It's like listening to a song: initially you can't get enough, but after dozens of repetitions, you start to reject it. This is because continuous stimulation of the same thing causes neural fatigue in the same brain area. If you plot exposure frequency against liking, you get an inverted U-curve. Initially, more exposure increases liking. After a certain point, more exposure decreases liking. We often mistakenly think that more exposure leads to more popularity. But actually, whether a person, brand, or topic is "hot" involves two factors: familiarity and liking. If the mix is balanced, it's a hot commodity. If you go to Northeast China and show female college students two faces, they might be more familiar with Nicholas Zhao Si than Nicolas Cage. But if you add liking, I believe Cage would get more votes. So, increased exposure doesn't necessarily bring corresponding commercial value. Look at the most commercially valuable stars in China; most are cautious exposers. Think of the "male gods" over the years: Takeshi Kaneshiro, Tony Leung, Peng Yuyan, Hu Ge, Jackson Yee... They aren't frequent variety show guests, nor have they starred in blockbuster dramas, yet their commercial value is enormous. Interestingly, if we list large brands with both scale and profit, their advertising spending is also restrained. For example, Nongfu Spring, WeChat, Apple, Tesla, Coca-Cola... When OPPO started its high-end route, it also reduced variety show sponsorships. If a star or brand is like this, can something as abstract as consumption motivation also lose appeal with increased frequency? The answer is yes. The "saturation effect" can explain many psychological and behavioral phenomena. Here's a slightly embarrassing example: many male otaku enjoy watching adult videos, but as they watch more, they find their tastes getting heavier. The "classic films" that once attracted you gradually become less appealing, and you need more stimulating content to satisfy yourself. The saturation effect is often used to study the relationship between sexual stimuli and sex crimes. Initially, sexual stimuli easily trigger sex crimes, but as such materials increase, people adapt, and crime rates may actually decrease. So, whether sites like Pornhub induce or reduce sex crimes is controversial. You see, even physiological motivations like sexual desire can fatigue. Stars are the same: when a star over-promotes a persona for a period, the public's consumption motivation fatigues, leading to backlash. Another way to stabilize consumption motivation is to invest in traffic assets rather than traffic liabilities. I'll share specifics in a bonus section with my supporters. When a brand, star, or product is launched, how do you ensure users' consumption motivation doesn't fatigue? For cognitive fatigue, I think it's influenced by two factors: time and form. Breaking time-based fatigue Exes might hate each other while together, but once they become exes and emotions cool for a while, they might rekindle. Even long-married couples who are like "left hand touching right hand" have the saying "a little separation makes the heart grow fonder." Any boredom comes not only from mechanical repetition but also from the cycle of time. So, the antonym of familiarity is freshness; "new" refers to a time gap. Being popular is like balancing on a seesaw between familiar and unfamiliar. So, when advertising, the best effect isn't overwhelming or moderate, but rather saturated for a period, then completely cooled. Saturated exposure creates cognitive ease, using familiarity to foster liking; complete cooling interrupts the boredom and aversion from the saturation effect, refreshing the senses. So, many brands are held hostage by e-commerce platforms because promotional festivals occur almost monthly, diluting brand advertising resources and fatiguing consumer motivation. To stay popular, brands must be more aggressive during peak times and more restrained during off-peak times. "Explode at key moments, cool down during daily times"—maintaining stable consumer motivation is the sustainable promotional pace for long-term brand health. Innovation in creative form Another factor that fatigues consumption motivation is "form." What makes us lose freshness is often not the core but the form. For example, you love eating at a barbecue restaurant downstairs; you think their grilled lamb kidneys are superb. But after eating there for a month, you get a bit tired. Recently, Zibo barbecue became popular, and the owner introduced a Zibo-style set with small pancakes and green onions wrapped around lamb kidneys. You're attracted again and eat for three days straight. Eating lamb kidneys is your core need, unchanged. But because you're tired of garlic with lamb kidneys, switching to pancakes and onions rekindles your interest. This is form iteration, reawakening consumption motivation. I've experienced this. One summer, I liked having a bottle of Coke with dinner. After a week, I wanted a change. But when I saw mini cans of Coke at the supermarket, I bought a case again. Many brands like to create new creative campaigns every year, which actually destroys brand assets. But I understand the marketing department's mindset: doing the same creative every year risks user boredom and the boss thinking you're not working. The correct approach is to keep the creative core unchanged each year and explore new forms of expression. Suppose Nongfu Spring does annual advertising; its creative can always revolve around "nature's porter." But the form can change each year:
  • A story-driven TV commercial
  • A documentary about employees collecting water sources
  • A crossover with National Geographic to shoot water source photography
  • Commissioning famous writers to write short stories about Changbai Mountain
  • Having Bear Grylls or Ed Stafford do extreme survival challenges in Changbai Mountain
  • ... In this regard, we should learn from LEGO. LEGO also has a theme park built entirely from LEGO bricks. Although LEGOland lags behind Disneyland and Universal Studios, it does better at maintaining freshness. Because every four years, the artificial statues and landscapes in LEGOland are demolished and rebuilt. A user's certain needs may be constant, but because of changes in the environment, the form in which they consume that need changes. So, we must iterate on forms and play based on external changes. Look at music variety shows: some old songs become popular again because singers rearrange them, making them sound new. The song is the same, but new arrangements and performers give a fresh feel. In "The Big Band," Jiulian Zhenren adapted Li Zongsheng's "Song of the Mortal," changing lyrics to Hakka dialect and adding suona and trumpet, making a lyrical old song feel passionate. Final words: People often think that as long as you stabilize traffic, you can stay popular. But traffic is the effect, not the cause. Sustained traffic comes from sustained consumer desire. Only by stabilizing consumer motivation can you achieve long-term popularity.