Click 'Read the original' for details. On an eleven-hour long-haul flight back to China, my seatmate turned out to be a fellow FMCG professional, even a former colleague from Coca-Cola. Small world. My colleague asked me: What do I think of new retail? What about FMCG B2B? Will distributors be eliminated? Even more, will the old generation of marketers be out of work? I've been asked this question many times in corporate training sessions. Predictions may not be reliable, so let's talk about the current situation. Here's a brief summary:

  1. Market Share Status – Currently Too Small In the FMCG industry, the online share is still too small, and there's a risk of price undercutting. Most FMCG brand companies are not yet making online their main battlefield. They are optimistic about online B2B in the long term but don't take it seriously in the short term, only dipping their toes in. Some companies don't even bother with it at all. In the future, the online share of FMCG B2B will definitely grow, but it will take time, and it won't become an oligopoly. Offline will remain the mainstream.
  2. Model Status – Old Wine in New Bottles JD.com and Alibaba are making a lot of noise, and B2B giants are emerging in various regions. But from their own operational perspective, they are just integrating product lines, increasing average order value, and increasing terminal restocking frequency. Behind the scenes, they are figuring out how to set up large warehouses, small warehouses, transfer warehouses, and forward warehouses, and how to use large trucks, small trucks, tricycles, and refrigerated vehicles to reduce costs and improve efficiency. They are doing what big distributors used to do, just with more capital and bigger ambitions.
  3. Pain Point Status – Still Team Management No matter how you slice it, every B2B giant shares one characteristic: a massive ground sales force. They are essentially adding app recommendations and data analytics to the traditional eight-step visit process. Their biggest headaches remain staff motivation, training, assessment, inspection, and efficiency.
  4. Knowledge Shelf Life – More in Demand To date, the FMCG industry's deep distribution and extensive personnel management, assessment, and inspection systems are still the magic bullet for managing large ground sales teams. With minor adjustments to reports and details, the logic remains unchanged, and the knowledge doesn't expire. Veterans from the FMCG industry can easily outshine those with e-commerce backgrounds in this area. As long as old-school FMCG marketers are professional, they will never be out of work. Some may even switch to B2B companies to manage sales reps, with higher salaries. But setting standards, conducting assessments, terminal inspections, and morning meetings – these basic skills and hard work are still indispensable.
  5. Course Status – Interest but No Urgency Currently, too few people and companies need this course. I only follow this field as an academic interest. My current research and study on offline marketing topics are already overwhelming, with a queue of new courses waiting to be polished. I don't have time to launch a special online course for now. I'll stick to offline, being a 'nail' in traditional offline marketing.
  6. Model Status – A Fork in the Road The FMCG B2B industry has many schools of thought, each not convinced by the others, with numerous debates. Each school's cases and business logic look flawless from afar but are fraught with danger up close. For at least three to five years, it will be a 'biochemical experiment field' where pioneers sacrifice themselves. I'll watch, learn, and when the model crystallizes, I might dive into a company to lead consulting and execution. I believe I have the resources and opportunities. When I launch new courses in the future, I'll focus not on models but on management details. I've always believed that under the premise of correct big-picture logic, it's the tactics that determine victory. The more difficult and less replicable are the collections of tactics. Seizing the trend depends on heaven, understanding the path depends on trial, and optimizing tactics depends on practice. I'm devoted to the latter.
  7. Other Industry Status – Don't Count on Miracles Among the companies I've trained, only home appliances and building materials have made bigger moves online. But even in these industries, the leading companies are just doing things like 'pushing new products at higher prices offline,' 'improving inventory turnover efficiency,' 'using national specialty stores for online delivery,' 'generating associated customer value through quality service,' and 'driving traffic between online and offline to increase footfall.' These tactics are unremarkable, and the outcome still depends on execution. There's no phenomenon of 'old marketing knowledge becoming obsolete and old marketers being out of work.'
  8. Final Prediction – Will Distributors Be Eliminated? That's pure nonsense. Individuals may be eliminated if they don't improve themselves, but the class cannot be eliminated. Distributors, as small organizations where the boss is the owner and family members work, are often more efficient than large companies. Platforms can at most integrate and replace some logistics, warehousing, and distribution functions. Sales, especially new product launches, still rely on distributors and manufacturer personnel for street-level combat. If a platform could use smart ordering to replace the entire sales value chain, what would tens of millions of FMCG marketers eat? Drones and robots can replace delivery drivers, but they can't replace salespeople. This profession is artificial intelligence.
  9. Risk Warning – Internet Tools May Change Personnel Management I think what needs to be studied is how to use features like likes and dislikes to push ground sales personnel and terminal sales reps to improve efficiency and motivation. This has worked in 2C, and it should work in 2B. Possible metrics include 'terminal customer complaints,' 'terminal customer restocking frequency and SKU count,' and 'terminal customer emergency orders (indicating poor planned visit quality).' Eventually, terminal sales reps could be like Meituan delivery or SF Express couriers, automatically running around. Of course, there will be cheating and fake reviews, and details need to be refined, making the espionage more exciting and amusing. But the big logic is sound, so it should be the direction. Once this experiment succeeds, it won't overturn existing marketing knowledge, but it will at least be a challenge. Source: Teacher Wei Qing (weiqinglaoshigongsi) From August 22 to 24, the '2018 FMCG China Digital Innovation Conference (2018FDIC)' will be held in Shanghai, hosted by the China FMCG Industry Association and organized by New Distribution, with the theme 'Finding New Growth Engines.' The three-day conference will focus on two main themes: marketing and supply chain, with six parallel forums on brand, channel, communication, B2B, same-city logistics, and innovative retail. We will invite industry leaders, CEOs, and brand executives to deeply interpret the trends and drivers of digital transformation in the FMCG industry. We will gather over 500 FMCG company executives, 200+ B2B industry CEOs, and 1000+ major FMCG distributors to discuss how to use digital tools to achieve rapid growth again in the digital era. This conference will build a bridge for brand owners, distributors, retail enterprises, and marketing agencies, helping FMCG manufacturers get the latest information, understand best practices, and master more transformation skills. Invited Companies (list omitted) Conference Time: August 22-24, 2018 Venue: Shanghai Baohua Marriott Hotel Agenda:
  • August 22: All-day check-in; 14:00-17:30 Parallel forum on distributor same-city logistics; 18:30-21:00 New Distribution Night Gala Dinner
  • August 23: Theme: Marketing Digital Innovation; 9:00-12:00 Main forum on marketing digital innovation; 14:00-17:30 Parallel forums on brand, channel, and communication
  • August 24: Theme: FMCG Supply Chain Digital Upgrade; All-day FMCG Supply Chain Conference Registration: Registration is now open. Long-press the QR code below or click 'Read the original' to register. Limited-time group discount pricing is available! For inquiries: Ticket inquiries: [omitted]; Media cooperation inquiries: [omitted] Highlights of Previous New Distribution Conferences: Click the links below to review the first, second, third, and fourth FMCG + Internet Conferences. -END-