-01- Let's start with a bowl of chicken soup from Mr. Ma, which we all love to hear. Mr. Ma said: For the arrival of an opportunity, most people go through four stages: can't see it, look down on it, don't understand it, and it's too late. Nowadays, the business environment is getting faster and faster. An opportunity no longer arrives with much effort; it jumps directly from the first stage to the fourth stage. From being invisible to surging in like a tide, it's fleeting. Can't see it, can't see it, can't see it—huh? It's already too late. It's that exciting, that thrilling. Take this livestream带货 for example. A windfall is like a bun's filling: if you don't get the first bite, by the second bite, it's all gone. From 2016 to last year, after three or four years of rapid development, livestream e-commerce still hasn't shaken off the low-end image of "low-quality people, low-quality goods, low prices," even though it has already made a market of three to four hundred billion yuan. After the Spring Festival in 2020, due to several well-known reasons, all factors came together, and livestream带货 suddenly exploded. Besides the three giants Taobao, Kuaishou, and Douyin, Pinduoduo also joined this year, and JD.com, Weibo, Suning, etc., none of the platforms are idle. The forms of带货 are also diverse. Besides the usual livestream room displays, there are also— On-site type: Directly go to street stalls, seafood markets, orchards, etc., for live broadcasts. Let the audience feel the on-site atmosphere and watch the host bargain with the stall owner. This is often used for non-standard products like jade and local specialties. Brand store type: Do long-term daily broadcasts. Not only can the store owner and staff do it, but other hosts are also welcome to enter, take a commission after selling goods, and leave. If they think it's good, they can come again. If you're tired of selling your own goods, you can visit your neighbor Lao Wang's place and help him sell some goods; he's also very welcome. It has a bit of a "shared livestream" flavor. (This concept is interesting; those with a mind can use it to create a business model to harvest the leeks.) The most lively change is the hosts. Originally, it was mainly internet celebrities. This year, the frequency of celebrities coming down has suddenly increased. Anyway, there are fewer film shoots this year, and cinemas are on holiday. Since they're idle anyway, most of the entertainment industry has come to try带货. In addition, officials, TV hosts, entrepreneurs, various professionals, employees, Taobao store owners, offline store owners, and enterprise self-cultivated hosts... There's news that a certain vocational school has opened a major in e-commerce hosts, and students were signed by employers as soon as they were recruited. Among these, the most symbolic event is not Teacher Luo becoming the number one on Douyin, nor CCTV hosts selling over 500 million in two hours, but Liu Tao joining Juhuasuan as an employee. Please note: it's "joining as an employee," not "settling in." This is a very strong signal, and Lao Miao will interpret it later in the article.

-02- Many in the industry predict: This year's livestream带货 can achieve a revenue of 1 trillion yuan, accounting for about 10% of total e-commerce retail sales, and in the next three to five years, it could reach 25%-30%, with a total sales volume of 3 trillion yuan. So manufacturers are restless, distributors are restless, retailers are restless, e-commerce platforms are restless, online sellers are restless, and offline physical stores are restless. What's more terrifying is that many entrepreneurs are also restless, self-media people seem to have found the best way to monetize, and many 18th-tier actors who can't make it in the film and television circle seem to see another way out. After mass entrepreneurship, we have now come to the era of nationwide livestream带货. Among the several companies I consulted this year, some have started to lay out livestream带货, some have made their e-commerce flagship stores the number one in a certain category through livestreaming, and some have found top internet celebrities to do a few livestreams with remarkable results—one livestream can close deals of one to two million. What's even more impressive is that they are starting to import customers obtained through livestream带货 into their own membership systems. But for more companies, I asked them to calm down first. Some are not suitable for now, some have product matching problems, and some can't see the pitfalls inside. The pitfalls of data fraud, returns, MCN agencies... there are countless pitfalls. Many companies go to do livestreams, and the money from selling goods isn't enough to cover the slot fee; some companies are tempted by so-called "guaranteed sales," but the result is 50,000 in sales and 30,000 in returns; and many MCN agencies seem to have a bunch of signed internet celebrities, but only one or two can actually sell goods, and some don't have any at all. Moreover, selling goods doesn't make money at all; selling "livestream带货 courses" is what makes money. "The money of cheaters (those who want to take shortcuts) is the easiest to cheat; harvesting leeks is always the easiest business to make money. But the above pitfalls are just small ones; falling into them once or twice is easy to get out of. The most terrifying are those who treat livestreaming as a "windfall," sell everything to chase it, and fantasize about "flying up" from it—those enterprises and entrepreneurs.

-03- Is livestreaming a windfall? This needs to be discussed from two aspects. First, will livestream带货 become a rapidly developing retail format? This is too obvious: livestream e-commerce greatly makes up for the lack of experience in traditional e-commerce and greatly increases impulse consumption. Good hosts are also key opinion leaders. Such product display is more efficient, reportedly 2.6 times more effective than traditional text plus images. Coupled with national policy guidance, platform support, and celebrity traffic support, it's hard for this industry not to be popular. It's not at all mysterious that livestream带货 will occupy 20-30% of e-commerce share in the future. But the problem lies in this "too obvious." The "opportunity" that everyone sees is not an opportunity; it's often a pitfall. This is called the "fallacy of composition" in economics, proposed by the famous economist Paul Samuelson, who was the teacher of Kotler's mentor. Many people judge industry opportunities by looking at the industry's growth rate. If it's fast, they're overjoyed; if slow, they're depressed. They talk about "sunrise industries" or "sunset industries." But the facts are often the opposite: The pet industry has had a compound growth rate of over 20% in recent years, but most pet stores are struggling; traditional e-commerce is still growing rapidly, but most stores are losing money, a few break even, and only a very few make a profit. On the contrary, liquor and cigarettes, which have been called sunset industries for many years, are mostly doing well. The most interesting is TV shopping, an earlier form of "livestream带货." When it was booming in the early years, there were over 2,000 TV shopping companies nationwide, but most were living in a sorry state. Later, after a crackdown, only a few remained, and each of them is now living a comfortable life. This is the fallacy of composition. If you alone see an opportunity, it's a good opportunity. If most people see it, it's already too late. As a business person, look less at big trends and focus more on your own accumulable value. Unless you're the number one or two in the industry, it really doesn't have much to do with you. Similarly, the popularity of livestream带货 is a huge boon for Taobao and Douyin, a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for Li Jiaqi and Viya, but for ordinary enterprises and general entrepreneurs, it really doesn't matter much. How hot is livestream带货 now? To sum it up in one sentence: There are too many hosts, and there aren't enough viewers to go around. Currently, a massive number of people are flooding into the livestream带货 industry. Practitioners have already exceeded one million and are heading toward ten million. From processing and manufacturing to retail and wholesale, from consumer goods to trade goods, from platforms to policies, every link related to business is staring at livestream带货. Viya signed a strategic agreement with Mengjie, and after three带货 sessions sold over 8 million, Mengjie's stock hit 8 consecutive limit-ups, and its market value increased by several billion. Sister Dong did livestreams and brought in over 700 million in goods, and Gree's market value correspondingly increased by over 10 billion. In such a high-profile industry where any slight movement is infinitely amplified, the possibility of ordinary people and ordinary companies catching the windfall is too small.

-04- Second, the current livestream带货 has evolved to the second episode, and the windfall left for ordinary people is basically zero. The first episode of livestream带货, like traditional e-commerce ten years ago and Pinduoduo in the first two years, relied on selling low-priced goods and some novel and unique products. But with the rise of star-level hosts like Li Jiaqi, Viya, and Xinba, the underlying logic of this industry has begun to change. E-commerce带货 is not just about how well you can sell in front of the camera; it's starting to compete on the supply chain. Facing suppliers and platforms, top hosts have a certain say. For buyers, they can get cheaper goods with better quality assurance; for platforms, they can bring off-site traffic; for suppliers, entering the livestreams of these top internet celebrities is a guarantee of sales. Top internet celebrities have formed a virtuous cycle among supply, demand, and platform, developing more and more smoothly. This is the three-sided market effect. Thus, it's hard to get a slot. Traffic and resources are gradually concentrating on the top, and opportunities for ordinary people are decreasing. This is originally an industry development trend. But what has accelerated this trend to the max is this year's "platform + celebrity" model. From Douyin supporting Luo Yonghao to Liu Tao joining Juhuasuan, platforms are using celebrities as traffic weapons in competition. This year, the film and television industry is also sluggish. Celebrities with fewer gigs naturally can't stay idle. They might as well go sell goods; at least it's more effective than spreading rumors. With most of the entertainment industry coming down, every major livestream room feels embarrassed if they don't have a few celebrities. It's truly like "when the city gate catches fire, the fish in the moat suffer; when elephants fight, countless ants are trampled." For ordinary people, even a slight traffic tilt is a big deal. And the reason celebrities become celebrities is that they not only have their own traffic that we can't match, but also a large number of loyal and even fanatical fans. Once they enter the game, they also get a lot of platform support, and their influence helps them quickly gain a say in the supply chain, soon forming a three-sided market effect. Thus, they leave us far behind. Teacher Luo's opening move in livestreaming was a slot fee of 600,000 yuan per slot, a height that most hosts can never reach in their lifetime. Ordinary people doing livestreams have suffered a dimensionality reduction attack from "platform + celebrity." In this winner-take-all situation, livestream带货 will soon form a stable pattern, and it will be even harder for new hosts to emerge.

-05- Last year, Xinba brought in 13 billion yuan in带货 on Kuaishou, and during the Double 11 period, Viya's带货 amount reached 2.7 billion. What does this concept mean? For listed companies in the consumer goods category, annual revenue exceeding 10 billion is already a large enterprise, at the leading level. If compared with traditional distributors, there is absolutely no traditional distributor in China with annual turnover exceeding 10 billion. This is an exciting era. It shows us that an ordinary person, by strengthening their own IP, can make their commercial influence as large as possible. They can build their own commercial empire and have endless imagination space. This inspires countless young people to plunge into the hot e-commerce livestreaming. However, society is like an alchemy furnace. Only Sun Wukong can refine fiery eyes and a bronze head and iron arms; most are refined into ashes. As I've said before: sales work seems to have a low threshold, but it requires great talent, and most people are not suitable for it. If sales work requires extraordinary talent to do well, then hosts who can sell goods through a screen must be geniuses. Go watch Li Jiaqi and Viya's livestreams. That sense of immersion, infectiousness, affinity, and control of rhythm is definitely not something ordinary people can do or learn. Of course, there's their effort, but talent is indispensable. Even Teacher Luo, known for his crosstalk, is far inferior to these top internet celebrity hosts in the selling link. Most celebrities also lack this talent. Many MCN agencies have a dozen or twenty livestream rooms and sign dozens of small internet celebrities, only to find that there may be only one or two who can actually sell goods, and those who can sell goods explosively are as rare as hen's teeth. If you plan to dive headfirst into e-commerce livestreaming, first think about whether you are that genius, or whether you can find such a genius. Not everyone is suitable for livestream带货. If you are a production enterprise and want to sell more goods by riding this wave of "windfall," you also need to understand a truth: Not all products are suitable for livestreaming. It is said that Viya's criteria for selecting products for her livestream room are: high demand, good quality, low price, and few after-sales issues. This represents the main characteristics of early livestream products. Low price is the biggest attraction, and the average order value of most products is below 100 yuan. The difference is that good hosts can use their influence and product selection ability to get better products, while ordinary hosts can only rely on selling knockoffs and A-goods to make a living. In the 2.0 era of livestreaming, the "displayability and topicality" of products has become another important standard. We used to say "good products speak for themselves." In livestreaming, good products need to perform and have topics to be more competitive.

-06- To sum up:

  1. Although livestream带货 is developing rapidly, due to the "fallacy of composition" and platform traffic tilt, there is no longer any dividend for ordinary people and ordinary enterprises.
  2. Hosts who can sell goods are one in ten thousand. Most people are not, and general MCN agencies don't have such geniuses either.
  3. For enterprises that want to sell goods, building their own livestream team is generally unreliable. When looking for hosts, try to find top ones; the rest have too many pitfalls and too much water. You can adjust your products to better fit the characteristics of livestreaming.
  4. If you really can't find a top host to带货, it's okay. E-commerce livestreaming currently accounts for less than one-tenth of total e-commerce, and e-commerce only accounts for a little over 20% of total retail sales. Your main battlefield may not be here, and joining the crowd may not be a good thing.
  5. In this round of livestreaming craze, distributors should have benefited the most. Viya and Li Jiaqi are actually new types of distributors with their own personal IP. Unfortunately, most distributors didn't seize the opportunity either.
  6. For general online stores and offline stores, adding a livestream function can only do good, not harm. But it's not a lifeline.
  7. Any popular means that is universally pursued is大众化, seemingly low-threshold, making people mistakenly think they can easily do it well, and it also means it lacks specificity. When you use it as an ordinary sales tool, you must combine it with your own value and advantages, and embed livestream e-commerce into your existing channel advantages. The so-called windfall is a wave of market dividends brought about by a change in commercial infrastructure or an outbreak of new demand. Now information spreads fast, and large platforms react quickly, so the window of opportunity is very short. Therefore, chasing windfalls always results in "not getting the meat, but getting a bad smell." The market doesn't choose you because you stand there, but because you have unique value. Chasing windfalls without your own base and competitive advantage is like blindly chasing traffic—it's just another kind of vagrant, and it will be wiped out. Source: Lao Miao Tears Marketing (ID: yiheyingxiao) Author: Miao Qingxian