When Chinese brand exporters talk about the Middle East, Southeast Asia, or the Muslim market, few truly study Halal as an independent topic. But the fact is: this super blue ocean market, spanning 57 countries, serving 2 billion people, and valued at $2.4 trillion, is keeping many Chinese brands out—not because they lost to competitors, but because they never even got a ticket in.

How big is the global Halal market?

There are many versions of the Halal market size. We'll use two relatively authoritative reports as references: the State of the Global Islamic Economy Report (SGIE) by DinarStandard, and demographic data from the Pew Research Center. First, population data. Pew's latest 2025 global religious population report gives: in 2020, the global Muslim population was 2 billion, accounting for 25.6% of the world's population. From 2010 to 2020, the Muslim population increased by 347 million, growing at twice the rate of non-Muslims. According to Pew's model, it will reach about 2.2 billion by 2030. Next, market size. According to SGIE 2024/25, in 2023, global Muslim consumer spending in six areas—Halal food, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, modest fashion, travel, and media & entertainment—totaled $2.43 trillion, up 5.5% year-on-year, and is expected to reach $3.36 trillion by 2028. Halal food alone was $1.43 trillion in 2023. Islamic financial assets were $4.93 trillion, expected to reach $7.53 trillion by 2028. The compound annual growth rate for Halal food varies slightly by institution. Straits Research gives 9.56%, while most institutions estimate between 8% and 10%. For reference, the global food industry average growth rate is 3%-4%. Two trillion people, $2.4 trillion in annual consumption, 8%-10% compound growth—this is no longer the size of a niche market. (Data source: State of the Global Islamic Economy 2025)

Why is the Halal market worth studying now?

The Halal market has been growing, which is not new. But I think 2025-2026 is a special time to discuss it, because three key elements have come together.

First, Indonesia's mandatory Halal certification countdown

Indonesia passed the Halal Product Assurance Law in 2014, but considering the industry's transition period, enforcement is phased: From October 17, 2024, food, beverages, meat, and poultry slaughter services must have Halal certification to enter the Indonesian market. From October 17, 2026, the scope expands to traditional medicines, food supplements, cosmetics, chemicals, genetically modified products, wearable clothing, home appliances, and office supplies. Later, other prescription drugs and medical devices have deadlines of 2029 and 2034, respectively. The policy is based on Indonesian Government Regulation No. 39 of 2021 and GR 42/2024. That means for Chinese brands making cosmetics and wanting to enter Indonesia, October 17, 2026 is a red line. The certification process typically takes 5-6 months, and complex categories may take longer. Counting from now, time is already tight. Indonesia's importance lies in its 281 million population, of which about 87% are Muslim, making it the world's largest Muslim population. The SGIE report ranks Indonesia third globally in the Global Islamic Economy Indicator, after Malaysia and Saudi Arabia.

Second, the industrial transformation in Gulf countries

Whether it's Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 or the UAE's Vision 2031, they are about the same thing: oil will eventually run out, so what will Gulf countries do then? The Gulf countries' answer is non-oil economy—manufacturing, tourism, digital economy, and local consumption. They have money and sovereign funds, but lack industrial chains, production capacity, and consumer brand supply. This gap aligns with the capabilities accumulated by China's supply chain over the past two decades. From data, in 2024, China-Middle East trade approached $490 billion. According to the General Administration of Customs, in the first half of 2024, China exported 420,000 passenger cars to the Middle East, up 46.2% year-on-year, with new energy vehicles accounting for 19.6%. By the first half of 2025, Saudi Arabia entered the top ten destinations for Chinese car exports with about 120,000 units, and exports to the UAE also increased by 74,000 units year-on-year. The Halal market is never just food and beauty; it is a whole supply chain serving Muslim lifestyles—cars, electronics, home goods, and clothing are all included.

Third, the meaning of the Halal label itself is changing

This is more subtle, but I think it's the most worth discussing. SGIE 2024/25 notes that since 2024, the new consumer awareness of global Muslim consumers has significantly increased. Because Halal itself represents transparent supply chains, animal welfare, no alcohol, no forbidden ingredients, which align with concepts like "clean label" and "better-for-you" pursued by young global consumers. The report states clearly: many values behind the Islamic economy have broader appeal, resonating with principles like sustainability and healthy consumption. Halal products are increasingly equated with food safety, hygiene, and health. A concrete example: data released by the UK Parliament in June 2025 shows that in 2024, of approximately 1.035 billion animals slaughtered in England and Wales, 20.7% used Halal methods. Yet Muslims make up less than 7% of the UK population. This shows that the real consumers of Halal food have long exceeded the Muslim community itself. This also shows that the Halal label has changed. It used to represent a compliance requirement for entering Muslim markets; now it is becoming an endorsement for entering global new consumer markets.

Breaking it down

Which tracks can Chinese brands really enter?

When discussing the Halal market, we can't just talk about the total; we need to break it down by category. In different categories, the market opportunities for Chinese brands vary greatly.

Halal food and beverages: the largest market base, but not yet leveraged

Halal food, at $1.43 trillion in 2023, is the most mature and largest segment of the Halal economy. But Chinese brands have a weak presence in this track. SGIE has an interesting data point: among the top ten global exporters of Halal-related goods to the 57 OIC countries, only 3 are OIC members; the rest are non-OIC countries like Brazil, India, the US, China, and Australia. OIC members overall have a trade deficit of $76.2 billion in Halal-related goods. There is certainly opportunity for China's supply chain, but few Chinese food brands have scaled up in Southeast Asian Halal markets and the Middle East.

Halal beauty and personal care: the most realistic opportunity for Chinese brands now

Among several tracks, beauty is where I see the biggest short-term opportunity for Chinese brands. Three reasons. First, the market itself is booming. Industry public data shows Indonesia's Halal cosmetics demand has reached $7.5 billion, expected to reach $9.6 billion by 2027, accounting for about 61.6% of the global Halal beauty market. Indonesia's overall cosmetics market is expected to exceed $2.09 billion in 2025, with Halal cosmetics growing at 12% annually. Second, there are already successful brand cases. One is SKINTIFIC. SKINTIFIC is a cross-border beauty brand created by Guangzhou Feimei Network Technology in 2019, with core team members from Alibaba and Huawei, focusing on Indonesia and other Southeast Asian markets. According to public information, SKINTIFIC won the global sales champion on TikTok Shop in 2022. As of July 2023, its Indonesian TikTok store had cumulative sales of 6.72 million units and cumulative sales of about 870 million RMB. Its approach is not traditional low-price distribution, but focuses on core ingredients (5X Ceramide, patented technology) and brand narrative, while completing BPOM certification and localization. Another is BIOAQUA. Entered the Indonesian market in 2021. Founder Yan Jiajia has publicly stated that compliance—including HALAL, BPOM, SNI, ISO certifications—is the "first threshold" for entering the Indonesian market. Public data shows that around June 2023, BIOAQUA's TikTok Indonesia official store had cumulative sales of nearly 5 million units, with cumulative sales of about 160 million RMB. Its mask products clearly highlight HALAL and BPOM certifications as core selling points. Third, the time window is tightening. After the October 17, 2026 deadline, cosmetics without BPJPH certification cannot legally circulate in Indonesia. For brands still hesitating, the time left for application, certification, and launch is actually much shorter than it seems.

Modest Fashion: a severely underestimated category

Many people in apparel export haven't paid much attention to this category, but it is one of the six pillars in the SGIE framework. According to Indonesia's Ministry of Trade, in 2024, Islamic clothing was the second largest category in Indonesia's Halal product exports, with export value of $8.28 billion, second only to Halal food at $41.9 billion. The three fastest-growing segments are Hijab, Abaya, and Modest Activewear. In this category, China currently participates more as a factory supplier, with basically no brand-level players. After Saudi Arabia relaxed restrictions on women's public activities in 2018, women's sports consumption has grown rapidly, but local supply of modest activewear is clearly insufficient. The combination of rigid demand and structural gap is worth serious attention from apparel brands.

Halal pharmaceuticals: highest barrier, but deepest moat

Halal pharmaceuticals is the seventh pillar listed separately in SGIE. According to Malaysia's HDC, Malaysia's Halal pharmaceutical market is expected to reach 435 million ringgit in 2024. The absolute size is not huge, but this track features high margins, high barriers, and clear policy drivers. Indonesia's certification timeline: traditional medicines and food supplements must be certified by October 2026, non-prescription drugs by October 2029, and prescription drugs by October 2034. Certification typically takes 8-12 months, involving Halal compliance for excipients, capsule shells, and carrier substances. The initial investment is heavy, but once certified, it can theoretically cover all 57 OIC countries.

Several pitfalls in certification

If you really want to do the Halal market, there are several pitfalls that are easy to encounter during implementation, worth knowing in advance. First, treating one certification as a global pass. Major global Halal certification bodies include Malaysia's JAKIM, Indonesia's BPJPH, Saudi Arabia's SFDA, UAE's ESMA, Gulf's GSO, Singapore's MUIS, and the US's IFANCA. JAKIM is considered one of the strictest and most credible standards globally, recognized by over 84 foreign institutions in 46 countries. Although standards are similar, they are not fully mutually recognized. BPJPH has gradually established MRAs (Mutual Recognition Agreements) with some institutions since 2023, but conversion through its system is still required. The idea of one certificate for the world doesn't hold in the Halal market. Second, the cost of production line transformation is severely underestimated. Halal compliance is a whole chain from raw materials to retail, not just "no pork, no alcohol." At the raw material level, porcine gelatin, keratin, and collagen cannot be used; alcohol content in cosmetics is usually required to be below 0.5%; animal-derived ingredients must be sourced according to Islamic law. Production lines cannot cross-contaminate with non-Halal products, and cleaning processes cannot use alcohol. At the warehousing and logistics level, mixing in the same vehicle or warehouse can directly invalidate certification. At the personnel level, JAKIM requires companies to have a Malaysian Muslim Halal Executive. The result is that Halal product lines often require independent new production line investment. Industry public statements say this investment often amounts to millions of yuan, requiring a certain order scale to be profitable. Third, underestimating the certification cycle. BPJPH certification typically takes about 5 months, and complex categories may take 8-12 months. JAKIM has been criticized for long cycles—short ones 9 months, long ones up to 2 years—but since 2024, it has been pushing reforms to compress the approval feedback cycle to 23 working days. Many teams plan launches with a 3-month expectation, only to find the sales window has passed when goods arrive. A safer approach is to integrate certification into the product development process from the project stage, not wait until the product is finished. Fourth, ignoring prerequisite certifications. Taking Indonesia as an example, cosmetics must first pass BPOM (Indonesia's Food and Drug Authority) certification before applying for Halal. This is a sequential relationship, not parallel. Many teams new to Indonesia spend 6-12 months just on BPOM. Fifth, cultural compliance. Trademark design must avoid Islamic taboo symbols (such as crescent moons, crosses, or other potentially controversial elements), packaging cannot have patterns that offend Muslims, and marketing content must avoid religiously sensitive topics. These costs are hidden, but if you step on a mine, the entire brand may be boycotted in the local market.

Several judgments that differ from mainstream views

At the same time, I have several observations about the Halal market that differ from mainstream views, shared here for reference.

First: I don't agree with treating Halal as a niche market

Global Muslims account for 25.6% of the population and are the fastest-growing religious group. Adding non-Muslim consumers who accept Halal (animal welfare advocates in the West, young people pursuing clean labels), the coverage far exceeds a quarter of the world's population. Treating this market as niche is a structural misjudgment.

Second: Cost advantages are diluted in this market; trust is the moat

China's supply chain cost advantages don't directly translate into terminal price advantages in the Halal market. You have to pay certification fees, modify production lines, hire Muslim supervisors, and do dual warehousing—all extra costs. But what you get in return is also real: a market where consumer decisions are locked in by prerequisites. In a consumer country where products without Halal labels won't even be considered, trust premium matters more than price. SKINTIFIC's average order value is higher than most Chinese cross-border beauty brands, but it performs better in Indonesia than peers using low-price distribution. This is trust premium at work.

Third: The real long-term dividend is not in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia, but in Halal globalization

If you only focus on Indonesia, Malaysia, and Saudi Arabia, you're still thinking small. The real big story is in several directions: One is Halal localization in the West. In the UK, Halal slaughter accounts for 20.7%; in France, large supermarkets' Halal annual sales are about 400-500 million euros; the US Muslim population is growing fastest globally (52% growth from 2010 to 2020). These are not Muslim countries, but Halal consumption has become part of the local retail system. Another is the fusion of Halal with new consumption. When value propositions like "alcohol-free, clean supply chain, animal welfare" are accepted by non-Muslim youth, Halal completes its transformation from a religious label to a quality label. Once this happens, the market boundary is completely opened. There is also a window for standard co-building between China and Indonesia. According to Indonesia's Regulation No. 90 of 2023, certificates issued by BPJPH-recognized overseas Halal certification bodies (LHLN) can be registered as SHLN through its system, greatly simplifying the process. This is a window for standard mutual recognition worth watching.

Fourth: For Chinese brands, the significance is not just about grabbing market share

This might be the most contrarian point in this article. Behind the Halal economy is a set of values—transparency, integrity, animal welfare, supply chain traceability. These happen to be the soft power weaknesses most criticized in Chinese consumer goods going global. So my personal judgment is that entering the Halal market is actually a stress test for Chinese brands' globalization. Brands that complete this process gain not just a ticket to a 2 trillion-person market, but more importantly, the ability to be trusted by consumers in any global market.

Conclusion:

Back to the opening question: where is the next blue ocean? The overseas Halal market is not a trend-style answer. It doesn't have TikTok e-commerce's explosive 40x growth in three years, nor the short-term window driven by geopolitics like new energy vehicles. It is a structural market with a slow slope, deep snow, and rising barriers. Once barriers are established, it's hard for later players to enter. $2.43 trillion in consumer spending, 2 billion population base, 25.6% of the world's population, 8%-10% compound annual growth, institutional coordination across 57 OIC countries—these numbers together form an independent economy spanning three continents, from food to fashion, from pharmaceuticals to finance. Over the years, I've felt: the past decade of Chinese consumer goods going global proved manufacturing capability; the past five years proved hit-making capability; the next decade will prove the ability to integrate into market standards. While everyone is competing for profits in Europe and the US, traffic in Southeast Asia, and KOLs in the Middle East, the truly patient ones have already started putting Halal certification into product development processes, sending people to Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur, and building joint production capacity with local Indonesian suppliers. These actions are invisible on social media, but they are preparing for the next decade. So every team doing consumer goods going global should seriously ask themselves this question: Can Muslims use my product? And the most important market in the overseas Halal market is Indonesia.