According to the National Bureau of Statistics website, at the end of 2022, the national population decreased by 850,000 compared to the end of the previous year. In many people's impression, China's population has been continuously increasing, and China has always been the most populous country in the world. This is also consistent with people's intuitive experience; during the recent Spring Festival travel rush, everyone can personally experience the characteristic of China's large population. But last year, China's population decreased. Will China's population continue to decline in the future?
One Year, an Increase Equivalent to the Population of Beijing
Before discussing the future trend of China's population growth, it is necessary to first understand the past population growth situation. China's population grew from over 500 million after the founding of the People's Republic to over 1.4 billion today after more than 70 years of development. This growth has not been stable and smooth but has experienced several twists and turns. As can be seen from the annual population growth figures in the chart below, before 2011, China's annual population growth showed three peaks and three troughs.
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics
The first peak was from the founding of the People's Republic to 1958. During this period, the country returned to peace, and the economy grew rapidly. The annual population growth was over 10 million, and in the first decade after the founding, the population increased by about 130 million. Then came the first trough, which was 1959-1961, a period of three consecutive years of difficulty. In 1960 and 1961, the population experienced negative growth for two consecutive years.
The second peak was 1962-1973. With economic recovery, the population returned to high growth rates. Especially in 1963, the population grew by 18.76 million, which could be described as revenge growth. As the people born during the first peak entered marriage and childbearing age, the second peak was pushed higher. In 1970, China's population increased by 23.21 million, the highest population growth since the founding of the People's Republic. That year, the increase was equivalent to more than the population of Beijing.
The second trough was 1974-1980. Due to the rapid population growth during the second peak, in 1973, the State Council established a leading group for family planning, proposing to encourage late marriage and late childbearing, with a birth interval of at least three years, and a maximum of two children per couple. In the following years, family planning policies were intensively introduced. In October 1978, Document No. 69 was issued, proposing that the number of children a couple could have should be "one is best, at most two." By January of the following year, the National Family Planning Work Conference removed the "at most two" clause. By September 1980, it was formally advocated that each couple should have only one child.
During the first trough period or slightly earlier, fewer children were born. This group entered marriage and childbearing age during the second trough, which also contributed to the emergence of the second trough. However, it is worth noting that the second trough is only relative to the periods before and after it. Even in 1980, the year with the smallest population growth during the second trough, the population still increased by 11.63 million, which was more than the population growth in many other years.
The third peak was approximately between 1981 and 1990, caused by the people born during the second population growth peak entering marriage and childbearing age. However, due to the family planning policy, when the people born during the second population growth peak entered marriage and childbearing age, they often adhered to the one-child policy or the one-and-a-half-child policy in some areas. The number of only children increased significantly during this stage, and this birth peak was not as significant as the previous ones. The year with the largest population growth during this peak was 1987, with an increase of 17.93 million, which was still less than the years with the largest population growth in the previous two peaks. After that, until 2010, there were no peaks or troughs, and the population growth almost continuously declined until the one-child policy was relaxed.
Thirty Years of the One-Child Policy: Earth-Shattering Changes
The well-known content of the family planning policy, "one couple, one child," appeared in 1980. Later, considering the actual situation in rural areas, after 1984, the one-and-a-half-child policy was implemented, meaning that rural families whose first child was a girl could have a second child, and this was implemented in some rural areas. Since then, with extensive propaganda, the slogan "only one child is good" became deeply rooted in people's minds. Readers of a certain age may remember the sketch "The Guerrilla of Having Children" performed by Song Dandan and Huang Hong at the 1990 CCTV New Year's Gala, which, while making people laugh, encouraged people to have fewer children. It was also after that year that China's population growth almost continuously declined. After 2000, China's annual population growth fell below 10 million. In 2010, China's population increased by 6.41 million, hitting a cyclical trough. That year happened to be the year of the sixth population census. From the population structure obtained in this census, it could be seen that China's aging and low fertility situations were already quite serious.
☉ Data source: National Bureau of Statistics
In November 2011, Henan Province relaxed the policy allowing couples who are both only children to have a second child, i.e., if both spouses are only children and request to have a child, they can have a second child after approval. Since then, the whole country has relaxed the policy for couples who are both only children to have a second child. In November 2013, the policy was launched to allow couples where one spouse is an only child to have two children. In October 2015, the policy of allowing all couples to have two children was fully implemented. Since then, the "second-child" policy was completely relaxed.
During the years when the "second-child" policy was gradually relaxed, there was indeed a small peak in population growth, but it was incomparable to the previous peaks. Even in 2012, the year with the largest population growth during this period, the increase was only 10.06 million, which was even less than in 1980, the year with the smallest population growth during the second trough. It should be noted that from 1980 to 2010, the "one-child policy" existed for 30 years. These 30 years were earth-shattering. During these 30 years, China's per capita GDP increased from 468 yuan to 30,808 yuan, an increase of nearly 65 times; the urbanization rate increased from about 20% to nearly 50%. A large number of Chinese people moved from rural areas to cities, and their incomes increased significantly. In addition, the slogan "only one child is good" had become deeply rooted in people's minds, and the concept of childbearing had undergone a complete change.
By the time the "second-child" policy was fully relaxed in 2015, the people born during the third birth peak were already 35 years old at the oldest and 25 years old at the youngest. It can be said that it was almost too late to expect them to have children, especially since their concept of childbearing had also tended to have fewer children. This is the reason why the "birth peak" in the years when the "second-child" policy was gradually relaxed was far less than before. By 2017, the population growth returned to a downward trend, and in 2021, it only increased by 480,000. It was also in 2021 that the "three-child policy" was implemented, allowing each couple to have three children.
But the "three-child policy" has not stimulated population growth as much as the "second-child" policy did—last year, China's population experienced negative growth.
Will the Negative Population Growth Continue in the Future?
Will China's negative population growth continue? The so-called negative growth means that the number of deaths exceeds the number of births, resulting in a negative natural increase in population.
First, regarding the birth population, in the next ten years, the most likely to give birth are those aged 15-34.
According to the data from the sixth and seventh population censuses, in the ten years from 2010 to 2020, this age group decreased by more than 60 million. If this age group is divided into five-year segments, it can also be seen that, except for the 30-34 age group, the number of people in each segment in 2010 was greater than in 2020. The 30-34 age group, which had more people in 2020 than in 2010, does not have optimistic fertility potential.
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics
In addition, the sex ratio, with the number of women as 100 as the base, is an important indicator for measuring gender balance. According to the sixth and seventh population censuses, the sex ratio of the 15-34 age group was 103.4 in 2010 and 110.4 in 2020. It can be seen that the sex ratio of the 15-34 age group was more balanced in 2010 than in 2020. If this age group is divided into five-year segments, it can also be seen that the sex ratio in each segment was lower in 2010 than in 2020. It can be seen that in the ten years from 2010 to 2020, the gender balance of the 15-34 age group deteriorated rapidly, making it more difficult for young men and women of marriageable age to marry, let alone have children.
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics
Next, regarding the death population, in the next ten years, the population most likely to die is the elderly aged 65 and above. According to the sixth and seventh population censuses, in 2020, the number of elderly people aged 65 and above exceeded 190 million, an increase of more than 70 million compared to 2010. If this age group is divided into five-year segments, it can also be seen that the number of people in each segment was greater in 2020 than in 2010. Data source: National Bureau of Statistics
This means that more elderly people will pass away in the future, and the annual decrease in population will remain at a high level. In 2020, the population aged 65 and above was mostly born during the first population growth peak. In a few years, the people born during the second population growth peak will also enter old age, and by then, the number of elderly people passing away each year will be even greater.
Therefore, after 2010, China's birth rate rebounded somewhat during the years when the "second-child" policy was gradually relaxed, but it gradually declined after 2016. Starting from 2017, China's death rate steadily increased until it intersected with the birth rate, and in 2022, China's population experienced negative growth.
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics
From the future trend, it is likely that the decline in China's population will be difficult to reverse. In 2022, as the first year after the "three-child policy" was relaxed, the population still decreased, showing that simply relaxing the three-child policy cannot reverse the trend of population decline. To encourage childbearing, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Yunnan, and other places have introduced subsidy policies to encourage having a second or third child. The latest city to propose "giving money for having children" is Shenzhen. On January 11 this year, the Shenzhen Municipal Health Commission issued a public consultation on the "Shenzhen Childcare Subsidy Management Measures." According to the subsidy standards given in the opinion, for example, having three children can receive a cumulative subsidy of 37,500 yuan. Shenzhen is indeed a wealthy city, and the subsidy it gives is more than many other places. But obviously, even if a city like Shenzhen is generous, the subsidy is only a drop in the bucket compared to the cost of raising children. Moreover, many places offer subsidies less than 37,500 yuan. It is clearly impossible to rely on a small subsidy to reverse the trend of insufficient fertility willingness and population decline.
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