“I've been running a tobacco and alcohol shop for 15 years, and this year is the hardest. I really can't hold on much longer!” Recently, the author conducted intensive visits to tobacco and alcohol shops in parts of Shandong and found that the market atmosphere this year is generally cold. In the past, during holidays like National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, shops would stock up by the dozens of boxes, filling their displays. But this year, with the two holidays coinciding, shop owners generally report: they dare not stock up heavily, yet they dare not not stock up, feeling particularly tormented.

Consumption Contraction “Group purchase orders down 70%, large-ticket consumption gone” “Compared to last year, the most obvious change is the decline in group purchase orders.” Lao Li runs a tobacco and alcohol shop on a community street. In previous years, corporate group purchases and unit benefits were his main customer sources. But since May this year, the alcohol ban has hit like a heavy punch, leaving many merchants like Lao Li at a loss. Not only have sales plummeted within a few months, but several tobacco and alcohol shops in Lao Li's area have closed down one after another. “Now, group purchase orders have generally dropped by about 70%.” Lao Li said with a bitter smile. “Business dining demand has been declining over the years, and this year it has almost disappeared.” The essence of baijiu is “scenario-driven consumption.” As Lao Li said, the contraction of banquet scenarios has undoubtedly dealt another heavy blow to tobacco and alcohol shops. “It's not just that drinking occasions have decreased; the more realistic problem is that fewer people love drinking baijiu now, and those who can drink don't dare to casually.” Lao Li told the author, even for traditional banquets like weddings and升学宴, it's common to send 10 boxes and have 9 boxes returned. In addition, some shop owners added that although some customers' drinking habits remain unchanged, there has been a noticeable shift in price choices. “In the past, during festivals, buying alcohol was about face and brand. Now many consumers pay more attention to cost-effectiveness. Although people still buy, the average transaction value has dropped significantly. For example, customers who used to drink Dream Blue now switch to Sky Blue or even Sea Blue,” said a shop owner in Linyi. Under the backdrop of consumption downgrading, large-ticket consumption in his store has become rare. Besides high-end liquor being unsold, cigarettes priced at 600-1000 yuan per carton also don't sell. What troubles him even more is the issue of unpaid debts. “In the past two years, the environment has been bad, and there are many debtors. This year, it's four to five times more than previous years. Some customers take goods and delay payment. In the past, we could rely on holiday payments, but now customers are also tight and make excuses.” With funds not returning and inventory not moving, the days for tobacco and alcohol shops become increasingly passive.

Channel Competition “Traditional tobacco and alcohol shops are caught in the middle, passively taking hits” “Opening a tobacco and alcohol shop now is riskier than buying a lottery ticket; you can lose money at any moment!” When saying this, shop owner Lao Zhang looked helpless. He told the author, last week he stocked a box of baijiu, thinking the purchase price of 850 was a bargain, but within three days, the selling price of 830 was everywhere. Before selling, he had already lost 20. “Before the holidays, many stores, in order to attract customers or recover funds, would sell products at low prices. Some distributors, to complete sales tasks, were also dragged into price wars,” Lao Zhang sighed. “Not only that, now even the catering industry is 'cutting in.'” Lao Zhang mentioned that in the past, alcohol in restaurants was 10-20 yuan more expensive than in tobacco and alcohol shops, sometimes nearly double. “This year, they're also struggling. Besides setting up night stalls, many restaurants even sell alcohol at a loss to attract customers, lower than our prices. Now I don't dare to stock up much; if I stock a box, I might lose on that box.” Lao Zhang's situation is not an isolated case. In the past, retail liquor merchants could sell according to the unified guidance price, but now price wars across various channels have long made it difficult for traditional tobacco and alcohol shops to cope. In addition to offline, online liquor sales have seen explosive growth this year. Platform promotions and direct factory subsidies have further impacted the traditional price system. The result is that the same bottle of liquor can differ by dozens or even hundreds of yuan across different channels. “A couple of days ago, a customer came to buy beer and, when bargaining, directly showed me the online promotional price on his phone,” one shop owner cited as an example. “I saw that online it was 29.9 per case, but my purchase price was 34! I didn't know how to explain.” The 'bargaining power crisis' for tobacco and alcohol shops is not only reflected in negotiations with downstream consumers, but also stems from changes in upstream manufacturers. An industry insider told the author that in the past two years, due to widespread operational difficulties, tobacco and alcohol shops lack the ability to stock large quantities. Some manufacturers prefer direct sales or give lower prices to supermarkets, large warehouses, and chain terminals. Without manufacturer support, the profit margins of tobacco and alcohol shops are further compressed. “Now, they are neither key customers in the eyes of manufacturers nor the preferred choice for consumers. In this change in channel landscape, traditional tobacco and alcohol shops are caught in the middle, passively taking hits.”

Self-Rescue of Tobacco and Alcohol Shops For a long time in the past, tobacco and alcohol shops could support nearly a year's revenue by seizing a few peak seasons like Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, and Spring Festival. But this single profit model based on relationships and wholesale has long been unable to adapt to today's fragmented and personalized consumption demands. However, unlike most FMCG categories, traditional liquor merchants often bear significant financial pressure when transforming. Amid the industry's transformation wave, how can tobacco and alcohol shops, as small entities, save themselves? During the visits, the author found that some stores have begun to try new survival directions:

1. Reduce high-end and price-sensitive products, increase bulk liquor and regional specialty brands “This year, I reduced the proportion of high-end liquor and boxed liquor by half, freeing up more space and shelves for bulk liquor,” said a shop owner in a third-tier city. In the context of consumption downgrading, bulk liquor with inherent cost-effectiveness is gradually gaining popularity. According to the author's observation, among customers entering such stores daily, 70% specifically ask for bulk liquor. Some owners have also customized packaging gift bags in various specifications to meet customers' needs for holiday gifts and employee benefits. Some owners have even launched seasonal self-brewed products like green plum wine and blueberry wine as customer rewards, attracting many young consumers. Some stores have shifted focus to local specialty brands. “This kind of liquor has no obvious price comparison online and better matches local consumer preferences. Most importantly, it allows for reasonable gross margins, giving us some breathing room.”

2. Extend convenience and gift economy, add synergistic categories Many owners realize that relying solely on tobacco and alcohol is unsustainable. Specialty gift boxes, snacks, beverages, candy toys, and even courier collection services can become new attempts for tobacco and alcohol shops. “Group purchase business is hard now, so I thought I'd focus on the general public's consumption,” one owner shared. “Many customers buying alcohol are for gifts or visits. So this year, I added local specialty gift boxes, such as peanut oil, roasted chicken, and canned goods, making it convenient for customers to buy everything in one stop. Although these are simple small businesses, sometimes they make more money than selling alcohol.”

3. Break through online, do a good job of store traffic and private domain maintenance Although in industry consensus, instant retail is not suitable for all single tobacco and alcohol shops, some lightweight online attempts have also appeared in some shops. During the exchange, shop owner Sister Zhao shared her approach: on platforms like Douyin and WeChat Channels, she promotes her store through short videos or local advertising to attract traffic. “I usually shoot videos of new product unboxings and activity recommendations, and forward them in surrounding communities. Many new and old customers will directly message to place orders,” Sister Zhao said with a smile. Although the profit per order is limited, customers find it convenient, and the repurchase rate is high. She has gradually formed a stable customer base locally. “I believe that as long as people still need alcohol, there will always be business for tobacco and alcohol shops!”

Final Thoughts This year's “double festival window period” is more like a difficult test for many tobacco and alcohol shops: the twilight of business banquets, the shift in consumption habits, the disorder of market prices... The multiple pressures of the industry have gradually pushed traditional tobacco and alcohol shops into a passive position. But during the visits, we also saw another side: some stores have gradually found new growth curves by adjusting product structures, extending convenience services, and trying online traffic attraction. In fact, tobacco and alcohol shops will not be eliminated by the times. They still carry the consumption habits of offline social gifting and community regulars. The key lies in whether they can, in the future, stand on the demand side of consumers, complete a new thinking about store value, and achieve operational transformation. And this question is always the answer that tobacco and alcohol shops themselves must provide.