Sales and Average Transaction Value Both Decline "Closed during Spring Festival" was the decision Gao Hui made this year, with his store located in the center of Shijiazhuang, Hebei. In previous years, his supermarket always opened before dawn during the festival, moving full stock of New Year goods to the entrance for display sales. "Business has been getting worse year by year, so this year I simply closed and rested at home." In fact, the recent trend of many supermarkets closing during Spring Festival reflects a careful weighing of costs and benefits. Gao Hui said: "Operating costs during Spring Festival are high, especially the surge in labor costs—overtime wages double, and labor costs alone rise by about 30%. Not to mention the various promotional activities to attract customers, which further compress profit margins." The money earned from opening may not even cover employee wages. In contrast, supermarkets that chose to stay open had a "mixed bag" performance in this year's Spring Festival market. A supermarket in a large shopping mall in the center of Chengde, Hebei, saw sales decline by about 7% year-on-year during the Spring Festival period (from the 8th day of the 12th lunar month to the 7th day of the 1st lunar month). More concerning, both average transaction value and gross profit declined simultaneously, while foot traffic remained almost unchanged. This indicates that the direct cause of the sales decline was a reduction in the amount spent per transaction. Another supermarket located on the South Fourth Ring Road in Beijing faced similar issues. After the Little New Year (xiaonian), sales fell by about 20%, with overall gross margin barely changing. Based on sales data from multiple supermarkets, the national fresh food market remained weak overall during the 2025 Spring Festival. The dual downturn in foot traffic and average transaction value was the main drag, with average transaction value generally seeing double-digit declines, reflecting a clear trend of rational consumption for New Year goods. Many merchants lamented helplessly, "It's like entering the off-season early." There are many reasons for this situation: First, the continuous impact of online shopping. During the Spring Festival, major e-commerce platforms launched promotional battles around the "New Year Goods Festival," further diverting offline consumption. According to monitoring by the Ministry of Commerce's business big data, during the 2025 Spring Festival, sales of key national retail and catering enterprises increased by 4.1% year-on-year, while online retail sales grew by 5.8%. Although this growth rate slowed compared to 9% in 2024, the strong momentum of online consumption cannot be ignored. While online grows, offline retail struggles to match e-commerce's price advantages and convenience, making it inevitable that physical supermarkets face challenges in attracting foot traffic and boosting sales. Second, pre-prepared dishes have taken a significant share of supermarket fresh food sales. After years of market education, young people are increasingly accepting pre-prepared dishes. According to the latest statistics, total sales of pre-prepared dishes in 2024 exceeded 20 billion yuan, a significant increase of over 50% compared to the previous year. Although some supermarkets have begun to enter the pre-prepared dish market, compared to e-commerce platforms, traditional supermarkets still lag in product innovation and market acceptance, lacking competitiveness. For example, Hema focuses on "C-position hard dishes," launching multiple king crab pre-prepared dishes with sales up 118% year-on-year; Dingdong Maicai focuses on the pot cuisine market, launching Hong Kong-style large pot dishes and family reunion large pot dishes that are widely popular; Sam's Club's pre-prepared dishes are also bestsellers. Compared to these hot pre-prepared dish sales, traditional supermarket fresh food shelves appear increasingly desolate. Additionally, a traditional supermarket executive revealed to the author that, based on past market performance, high-end New Year dishes such as Buddha Jumps Over the Wall gift boxes and pork belly chicken gift boxes did not sell well in supermarkets, even less than processed dim sum and frozen convenience dishes for home quick meals. Finally, the impact of the economic downturn has also intensified consumers' rational consumption. Uncertainty about work and income makes them more focused on value for money, reducing unnecessary spending, with careful budgeting becoming mainstream. "Compared to last year, consumers' average transaction value has further declined, reflecting a shift toward 'downgrading' in market consumption," said the supermarket executive. Performance by Business Format Large traditional supermarkets continued the sluggish state from before the festival. In the regional retail market, many larger retail enterprises saw unexpected declines in Spring Festival performance, with fewer customers, and overall performance even worse than smaller retailers. In contrast, new formats such as membership stores, discount stores, and snack stores, which are carving out shares from traditional supermarkets, performed commendably. Take Sam's Club as an example: well before Spring Festival, Sam's sales were "phenomenal." In Pudong, Shanghai, on the opening day of Sam's new store, the store was packed, and even surrounding roads were congested. Sam's in Hangzhou even had to limit traffic, requiring customers to complete shopping within 10 minutes and canceling tasting services. To cope with Spring Festival, some Sam's stores adjusted business hours, increased staffing, and raised delivery fees. For instance, Sam's in Shunyi, Beijing, was open until midnight on New Year's Eve and reopened at 9 a.m. on the second day of the new year. Data shows that during Spring Festival, Sam's Shanghai stores had an average daily foot traffic of over 20,000 and average daily turnover exceeding 5 million yuan. In regional retail, Pangdonglai also delivered a "tycoon-level" report card. According to purchasing agents, during Spring Festival, Pangdonglai's order volume surged by 40%, and the team's daily profit easily exceeded six figures. "A box of beer earns 60 yuan, and we can sell hundreds of boxes a day!" Pangdonglai founder Yu Donglai even showed off the "achievements": On January 25, the offline sales of Pangdonglai's 13 stores exceeded 130 million yuan, with the Times Square store alone nearly reaching 30 million yuan. If Sam's and Pangdonglai are the "top influencers" of the Spring Festival market, then snack discount stores also became a major "highlight." During Spring Festival, many snack store operators revealed that sales increased significantly, especially in county and township stores. Growth came from two main aspects: first, returning migrants boosted consumption in township markets, making gift-giving a rigid demand; second, the increase in new store openings naturally expanded overall sales scale. Meanwhile, the catering industry also performed remarkably. Meituan data shows that online reservations for New Year's Eve dinner increased by 305% year-on-year, with both dine-in and delivery "booming." Many time-honored catering companies quickly met consumer demand through central kitchens and standardized production. More and more families choose to dine out or order delivery, shifting the New Year's Eve dinner scene from the kitchen to restaurants or directly to home delivery. This shift in consumption habits directly impacts supermarket fresh food business—when home cooking decreases, demand for fresh ingredients also declines. From the sluggishness of traditional supermarkets to the rise of new formats, and the "counterattack" of the catering industry, this Spring Festival consumption frenzy is both a "major exam" for the retail industry and a profound reflection of changing consumption habits. Key Adjustments in 2025 Over the past year, "adjustment and reform" has become the hottest keyword in the supermarket industry. Behind this is the change in consumer demand. On one hand, consumers' demand for quality, value for money, and emotional value continues to rise; on the other hand, the industry is benchmarking against leading companies like Pangdonglai and Sam's, attempting to achieve differentiated competition through product structure optimization. As shown by the report card during this Spring Festival, the direction of product adjustment has become increasingly clear: enhancing product value, focusing on high quality and high cost-performance. "Most supermarkets' current adjustments focus on product structure changes," a retail industry observer told the author. For example, in the fresh food sector, the upgrade of fruit categories has become a highlight. Compared to traditional bulk fruit, pre-cut fruit products attract consumers with higher convenience and refined display. The layout of seasonal core big-ticket items can bring profits to supermarkets during specific periods. Also, bakery products are priced relatively affordably, breaking the traditional "high price, low frequency" positioning to attract consumers. In-store services such as cooked food, snacks, and dine-in directly provide convenient catering, not only extending consumers' stay but also creating more consumption scenarios. Thus, to truly build competitiveness centered on product value, private brands and processed foods are the "trump cards" for major supermarkets to create differentiated product strength. Looking at Pangdonglai, which has been booming in recent years, and ALDI, which is rapidly expanding in the Shanghai market, as well as warehouse membership stores like Sam's and Costco, private brand products are the key to success. Through private brands, they not only increase product differentiation but also continuously stimulate consumer purchase demand. Take ALDI as an example: over 90% of its products are private brands. This highly private-label model helps it form a unique brand recognition in a competitive market. Sam's Club's private brand Member's Mark accounts for about 30% of sales, and in terms of SKU count, it exceeds one-third. Costco's private brand Kirkland also performs well, accounting for about 28% of annual sales. Second is omnichannel layout. Front-warehouse models and instant retail have become key competitive points. Many retail investors predicted to the author that this year, the front-warehouse track will become the key for supermarkets to break through. According to Ministry of Commerce data, China's instant retail market reached 650 billion yuan in 2023 and is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030. For supermarkets, the core of omnichannel layout is to center on offline stores, fully integrate online and offline sales channels, and form a broad, rapid omnichannel network. On one hand, offline stores serve as core nodes of the supply chain and the foundation of supermarkets; on the other hand, through the combination of instant retail and local retail, supermarkets can better meet consumers' growing "immediacy" needs. Take Sam's Club as an example: its "large store + front warehouse" model has achieved significant results. Data shows that orders from Sam's "Extreme Speed Delivery" service account for nearly 70% of its e-commerce orders, becoming an important driver of Sam's performance growth. This model not only enhances the shopping experience and expands Sam's coverage in regional markets but also captures local retail market share. Thus, from an industry-wide perspective, the evolution of the supermarket industry in 2025 will focus on several key directions: building differentiated product strength, deep development of private brands, and improving omnichannel layout. These strategies will help supermarkets better adapt to market changes and enhance core competitiveness. [New Order · Symbiosis] The 10th China FMCG Innovation Conference Date: March 17-19, 2025 Location: Chengdu, China