This year's Spring Festival is different. Without decisive measures, it is likely to be a 'regretful' one for marketers. Regret means having opportunities but failing to seize them. To avoid regret, we must start with the post-lockdown pandemic evolution. Fear, chaos, acceptance, and return to normalcy. After reopening, we go through four stages over a critical 100 days. The current situation: fear persists, chaos has arrived. But only 20 days remain for Spring Festival stockpiling. Since the lifting of restrictions, I have emphasized the rhythm of society returning to normal. Important things must be repeated: Rhythm, rhythm, rhythm. In 20 days, the infection rhythm, marketing execution rhythm, and Spring Festival stockpiling rhythm are intertwined. Rhythm is about timing; breakfast cannot be eaten at night. Without rhythm, work misses the mark; losing rhythm means effort without results. Fear → chaos → acceptance → return to normalcy is the group rhythm of public health—a law. The rhythm of stockpiling and epidemic prevention are mixed. We cannot lose rhythm, but only 20 days remain for Spring Festival stockpiling. In 20 days, we must fight a tough battle for Spring Festival; the window for marketers is closing fast. Masks affect the Spring Festival. Half a month after lifting restrictions, fear persists. After reopening, the first feeling is excitement, the second is fear. Excitement gradually returns to normal, but fear of the unpredictable future remains. Fear of the unknown is human instinct. In the first week after reopening, early infected individuals gradually recovered, and information reduced fear: COVID is not scary, just a bad cold. But it is definitely not 90% asymptomatic. In the second week, fear persists: high reinfection rates, severe hospital crowding, drug shortages, and the first peak before Spring Festival. Most information on social media is beyond expectations. Fear arises from the unexpected. On the 17th, I conducted a micro-survey in a group: Do you wear a mask when going out after recovery? All respondents said 'yes.' Wearing or not wearing a mask reflects fear. What is the significance of understanding fear? Will Spring Festival be prosperous? Will channels dare to stockpile heavily? Will marketers dare to visit outlets normally? All relate to fear. Don't assume the first infection peak arrives around New Year's Day; psychological perception always leads or lags behind the infection peak. Who knows if there will be a second or third wave! After fear comes chaos. Logistics and express delivery chaos, production chaos, supply chain chaos. This was my judgment before reopening, and it is gradually proving true. Within a week after reopening, express delivery seemed to recover, but soon fell into widespread staff shortages. Property management is also short-staffed, with many returning home. Next, will production lines face shortages? Production line shortages will inevitably trigger supply chain ripple effects. During the Spring Festival peak, shortages mean significant losses. My feeling: Fear persists, chaos has arrived! What is chaos? It is when normal and expected states are disrupted, off the expected track, and irreparable. It's not one person or one company in chaos, but a mess overall. Returning from chaos to normal takes time. The terrible thing is that the chaotic period coincides with the Spring Festival stockpiling peak. This is the worst time for chaos; chaos cannot be compensated and inevitably leads to losses. What does supply chain chaos mean? It means those who get goods early profit greatly. I suggest distributors and retailers stock up in advance. Will this Spring Festival be prosperous? This is a concern for many, with both opportunities and risks. After reopening, many initially thought it would definitely be prosperous, as things returned to normal. Now, the opposite may be happening, and this is the stockpiling window. More important than whether Spring Festival is prosperous is the psychological expectation during the stockpiling window. My judgment: This Spring Festival may not be prosperous, but at least not dull. However, channel stockpiling is not optimistic; overall sentiment is pessimistic. It's not dull, but perceived as dull. There is a contrast, and contrast brings opportunity. Because fear persists, especially as infection peaks in counties and townships lag behind central cities, distributors and retailers are not enthusiastic about stockpiling. Channels are pessimistic and conservative. A key method for FMCG Spring Festival stockpiling is the ordering conference. This year, ordering conferences will be hard to hold. Even if held, they may become venues for spreading pessimism. Without ordering conferences, channel stockpiling efficiency will drop significantly, let alone with marketing teams short-staffed. In my experience, there is a counter-pessimism opportunity. When everyone is pessimistic, the optimist seizes the opportunity. This year may present such a counter-pessimism opportunity. Now, about whether Spring Festival will be prosperous: it depends on three factors. First, the return rate. As long as people return home, consumption exceeds normal household spending. After years of 'celebrating in place,' the return rate this year will be high, especially since many have already returned early. Second, emotional release. The pandemic has suppressed emotions for three years; fear of COVID will gradually fade during Spring Festival, making this a release of pent-up emotions. Emotional release itself boosts consumption. The loud calls for setting off firecrackers are a sign of emotional release. Third, concerns about social interaction affected by the pandemic. Although fear of COVID is fading, interactions with 'semi-acquaintances' (like class reunions) will be cautious. In normal years, many returnees stay in county hotels, and county dining and KTV are booming due to reunions; these may decrease significantly. Judgment on Spring Festival consumption: Household goods increase, family and small banquets increase, large banquets decrease. Visiting relatives is normal, but visiting friends decreases. Small-circle socializing is inevitable, but large gatherings will be fewer. Entertainment and dining will be relatively subdued. Overall judgment: Spring Festival is at least not dull, but expectations are not high, and stockpiling is conservative. Opportunities and risks lie in the contrast between the two. Because the stockpiling window is short and conservative, channel stockpiling faces pressure. Because Spring Festival is not dull, stockpiling sales will at least be decent, and the goods pushed down will not be a major problem. Finally, let's talk about marketing rhythm. Marketing rhythm is built on expectations of demand, channels, and infection rhythm. The first issue facing marketing teams: The organizational structure is in disarray. This is the frontline situation I know. The frontline chaos is not about messing around, but about slackness. It's not about not working, but about being at a loss in new situations. The normal rhythm is gone, the rhythm formed by lockdown is gone, and the Spring Festival peak has arrived. A new rhythm has not yet formed. In marketing, there are currently five issues:
Issue 1: Controlling the infection rhythm of the marketing team
Infection, recovery, return to work. Some manufacturers manage seamless transitions with a human touch; others let it go. This process affects salespeople's morale.
Issue 2: Insufficient grasp of frontline employees' work status
Frontline salespeople are hard to manage recently, with many 'shepherding' (slacking off). Especially those with guaranteed base salaries. Without a base, they must work; with a base, they can choose not to. Some believe this year is a lost cause. During the pandemic, they retreat at the first sign of trouble. Perhaps by the time the sales team returns to normal, the Spring Festival stockpiling window will have passed. The core issue now is to effectively organize frontline employees to work according to the company's rhythm.
Issue 3: Utilizing the window period
During the infection peak, nothing can be done. But infection peaks in different cities are staggered. The infection path roughly follows a pattern (with individual variations): central cities (provincial capitals) → prefecture cities → counties → townships → rural areas. Staggered infection peaks create opportunities to make the most of the window. However, the window is very short (often about a week), requiring 'rapid response and immediate action.' So, I have been emphasizing agile organization, rapid mobilization, and rapid assembly. Call them, and they come; come, and they can fight.
Issue 4: Efficient stockpiling methods for Spring Festival
As mentioned, this Spring Festival will at least not be dull, so we should stockpile as much as possible. At the same time, channel players are generally pessimistic, making stockpiling difficult. Additionally, ordering conferences are hard to hold, so finding efficient stockpiling methods is crucial. I believe that reverse channel stockpiling may be more effective than forward: first do 2b, then 2B. Or even 2C first, then 2b, and finally 2B. But most salespeople are not accustomed to this approach.
Issue 5: Organizational issues during the chaotic period
This is my key point. I have an analogy: The charge for Spring Festival stockpiling has sounded, but the troops are in disarray. Given the current state of the team, top management must take two organizational measures: 1. Establish a 'General Front Committee' at the top. Traditional decision-making mechanisms cannot handle rapid information gathering, quick decisions, and fast responses. So, a 'General Front Committee' should be formed to create a rapid decision-making mechanism, unifying the Spring Festival campaign. 2. Move 'forward command' to the frontline. Information obtained via phone or internet, even if urgent, is different when it's someone else's emergency versus your own. Especially for industry giants with too many management layers and slow responses. So, command should move forward, from offices to the frontline, forming judgments on the ground. This is crucial for regional management. As long as decision-makers are on the frontline, they can resonate with the frontline. Otherwise, they miss the opportunity. This Spring Festival is unexpected; only exceptions and breaking rules can lead to victory. With frontline structures disrupted, a 'wartime state' is the key to success. In 20 days, we are running out of time. Final note: All predictions in this article are purely personal judgments. Use with caution.