"Since last Mid-Autumn Festival, gift boxes have clearly become hard to sell, and this year might be even worse!" This was the honest feedback from a sales assistant during a recent frontline survey. With less than a week to go before Mid-Autumn, unlike previous years when the entire chain from manufacturers to terminals was gearing up for the Mid-Autumn battle, this year's terminal market seems less festive, even somewhat subdued. To understand the changes, I visited several supermarket managers, small shop owners, and distributors to hear their views on this year's gift box market.

Terminal Prices Continue to Decline, Weakening the Gift Attribute

Walking into a supermarket, Mid-Autumn decorations are already in place. Besides regular shelves, there are many display stacks, but out of a dozen stacks, only two are selling mooncakes. Meanwhile, I noticed that except for one premium gift box priced at 300 yuan, the rest are all 100 yuan or below. A supermarket staff member revealed that in previous years, nearly a quarter of the stacks were dedicated to various mooncakes, with almost every gift box labeled as "Mid-Autumn" to tie in with the festival. But this year, most have become regular gift boxes, mainly at low prices. "Gift box A, originally 268 yuan, has been on special offer since the second day of stacking, buy one get one free, effectively over 100 yuan, but even so, sales are mediocre."

Across the street, at a wholesale supermarket, various gift boxes are prominently displayed at the entrance, but mooncakes are conspicuously absent. Prices range from 30 to 80 yuan. "The 'sky-high gift box' reputation from previous years has had a negative impact; now consumers ask the price first, and if it's too high, they won't buy!" the store owner said. "Gift boxes with obvious 'Mid-Autumn' labels are also hard to sell; labeling them as festival-specific gives an impression of high price and low value, affecting sales." I visited markets in Shandong, Beijing, Anhui, and other places, and this trend of deliberately downplaying the festival attribute at the terminal is not uncommon. Some small shops have even 'given up' on Mid-Autumn gift boxes, with all their gift boxes in regular packaging. The reason is simple: this year's Mid-Autumn pre-sale period is too short, mooncakes sell for only a few days, regular gift boxes not only meet holiday gifting needs but can also be sold after the festival, and they are more affordable!

Behind the decline of mooncake gift boxes is the increased diversity of the gift box market. Various nut, snack, milk, and fruit gift boxes are abundant, and even pre-made dishes and cooked foods now come in gift box packaging. As a convenience store manager put it, "Young people don't stick to old traditions; eating mooncakes is just for the ritual, so it's more practical to bring milk and bread!"

Stores Hesitate to Stock Up; Distributors Avoid Overstocking

With slow market response, stores have become more cautious. This caution is reflected in stock levels and gift box category choices. I noticed that a tobacco and alcohol store outside a high-end residential area in Shandong has changed its usual pre-festival "high profile" approach. The entrance is no longer piled with gift boxes, only a few milk drinks, white liquor, draft beer, and specialty gift boxes are displayed symbolically. "Previously, we would stock up in bulk at the entrance half a month in advance to attract business, but this year we don't dare to stock too much. First, we don't want to tie up money in inventory; order less and replenish if needed. Second, the store is only so big; if things don't sell, they take up space, so it's better to display more high-margin products," the store owner explained.

Compared to various "flashy" festival gift boxes, gift boxes with local characteristics are more popular at the terminal, such as Linyi braised chicken, pancakes, and pickled vegetables, which align with local consumption habits and yield better sales and profits.

On the distributor side, this Mid-Autumn Festival is also notably "restrained." "Orders for the Mid-Autumn period are down 20% year-on-year. A few days ago, a customer wanted 20 boxes of gift sets, but after comprehensive evaluation, we only supplied 5 boxes to ensure basic volume. It's better to replenish after selling out than to have unsold returns." When asked why, the distributor explained: Last year, sales of Mid-Autumn and Spring Festival gift boxes both declined by about 30% year-on-year, and terminal confidence was already low. Moreover, this year's Mid-Autumn sales period is short, making market competition more intense and concentrated. Additionally, since Mid-Autumn and National Day are not adjacent, there will be a diversion of people returning home, making a sales decline inevitable. The distributor is not optimistic about this year's Mid-Autumn situation. "This year, gift box prices have generally dropped by 30%. Last year, the average price of mooncakes was 80 yuan; this year, most are 35-68 yuan. It's estimated that supermarket sales will decline by 25% overall."

Sales May Rebound; Gift Box Market Still Has Opportunities

With less than a week to go before Mid-Autumn, feedback from stores suggests that this year's shipments will not be ideal. It is recommended that distributors lower expectations and maintain a calm mindset. At the same time, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Even though gift box consumption is currently cold, demand still exists, but it requires adequate attention and flexible strategy adjustments.

Declining consumer spending and reduced supermarket foot traffic are objective phenomena that cannot be avoided. In terms of channel layout, if store shipments do not meet expectations, consider developing special channels to compensate for the decline in supermarkets, such as community group buying and corporate group buying. According to my understanding, some distributors started connecting and planning group buying a month before the festival, expecting these to account for 25% of this year's Mid-Autumn shipments.

Additionally, compared to supermarkets, small and medium-sized stores near communities have a natural advantage in selling gift boxes. The sales peak for small store gift boxes usually occurs in the three days before the festival. Seizing this peak, stocking up well, and responding promptly to terminal demand can also achieve good sales.

In terms of gift box attributes, if it's a mooncake gift box, seasonality is obvious, so act decisively when the time comes, and be prepared for post-festival unpacking and promotions. If it's a regular gift box, consider extending the sales period. This year, Mid-Autumn and National Day are not consecutive, causing a diversion of people, but it also means there will be two small peaks in gift box consumption. When migrant workers return home, there is still sales potential in townships and rural areas. With early planning, gift box consumption may still rebound.

Final Thoughts

Based on the visits, affected by the overall market environment, the "cold" in gift box consumption will persist. But more important than market changes is the shift in mindset among stores and distributors.

Under overall economic pressure, every distributor must be mentally prepared, lower expectations, maintain a stable mindset, and seek new growth paths based on actual market conditions. Competition has always existed; the key is how to meet challenges and discover opportunities.