"Did you manage to buy vegetables today?" During this period, this phrase has replaced "Have you eaten?" as the new greeting, with tomatoes and leafy greens becoming the new hard currency. Now, even elderly family members are buying fresh produce online, setting alarms to grab groceries at increasingly earlier times. A "Beijing Grocery Grabbing Guide" is circulating online, detailing the restock times of various fresh e-commerce apps, and people's alarms have moved from 5 AM to midnight. In this special period, everyone has shrunk their activity radius to the bedroom and kitchen. Some analysts believe the short-term surge in online grocery demand could bring new opportunities to the fresh e-commerce industry, which was severely reshuffled last year. On one hand, the pandemic has created users and accelerated market education, giving companies free advertising. On the other hand, behind the buying frenzy, companies face tests in supply chain, delivery, logistics, manpower, and payment cycles. The challenges differ between first- and second-tier cities and third- and fourth-tier cities. In larger cities, delivery times are long and prices are high, with groceries grabbed by luck; in smaller cities, community group buying faces issues like scattered demand, limited choices, and cancellations due to insufficient group formation. But just as the SARS epidemic 17 years ago gave life to e-commerce platforms, many unicorn companies are already seeking transformation in this crisis, and the fresh e-commerce industry is no exception. Some fresh e-commerce platforms are partnering with restaurants to find new paths, with restaurant retailization becoming a new trend. New business models like direct supply from farms to communities and live-streaming from production areas are future opportunities. **-01-Midnight Grocery Grabs and Soaring OrdersUser Retention Becomes an Issue** Ms. Wang from Chaoyang District, Beijing, placed an order on JD Daojia at 9 AM on February 5, with delivery scheduled for 9:30-10:10 on February 6, as earlier slots were full. The order didn't arrive until 6 PM on February 7, taking 57 hours in total, and two meat items were out of stock. During this time, she tried to contact customer service online but gave up after seeing 76 people ahead in the queue. Many people like Ms. Wang experienced delayed deliveries due to the surge in orders: JD Fresh's delivery business grew 370% compared to before the Spring Festival; Dingdong Maicai's orders on New Year's Eve increased over 300% month-over-month; Meituan Maicai's daily orders in Beijing were 2-3 times the pre-festival level; and Miss Fresh's transaction volume from New Year's Eve to the fourth day of the new year grew 321% year-over-year. Overall delivery capacity is insufficient, and original delivery time standards can no longer be applied. Historically, fresh e-commerce sales during Spring Festival are slightly lower than usual due to reduced users in first-tier cities and changing user demographics, leading to fewer orders. This year, under the pandemic's influence, orders have been climbing, with panic buying in some categories. Many set alarms to grab groceries at night, even creating guides, reminiscent of the days when people stayed up to steal vegetables in QQ Farm. The explosive order growth leads many to believe fresh e-commerce has new opportunities, but seizing them requires facing new challenges first. First, supply and logistics issues. "After closing at 10 PM, we sync the next day's inventory. Customers somehow discovered this internal operation, and orders surged between midnight and 1 AM, leaving many users without vegetables when they woke up. We had to release inventory in batches to ease the situation," Li Wei, Miss Fresh's purchasing head, told Ran Finance. The pace of restocking has completely changed, and Li Wei's phone hasn't stopped ringing. She says orders have surged, requiring temporary additions of multiple suppliers. Categories like leafy greens and tomatoes are now limited to ensure more people can buy them, with 1,000 tons of vegetables supplied daily to over ten cities nationwide. "As for masks and disinfectants, prices change by the minute." Image / VCG The food shortage in the market is mainly due to insufficient staff in production areas during Spring Festival and blocked circulation caused by village closures and roadblocks. Li Wei says that in some areas, goods had to be carried out of villages manually, and platforms are accelerating communication with governments, but there are coordination costs between regions—for example, documents from Beijing may not be recognized in Qingdao. Second, user retention issues. After the outbreak, fresh e-commerce reached a group of people who hadn't previously bought groceries online but had the means to do so. Their income levels can support the service premium, which is a boon for fresh e-commerce. In this sense, the pandemic acts as "advertising" that accelerates market education. But after the pandemic passes, will these new users be willing to pay a premium for every grocery purchase? How many users can be retained? It's important to note that during this process, users regardless of spending power have been reached, but companies incur unnecessary costs to maintain users without spending power. Additionally, platforms must ensure stable supply without raising prices to quickly retain customers, which is costly. "Whether it will be a case of 'good reviews but poor sales' depends on future conversion," Shi Zhuojie, investment director at Suning Ecosystem Fund, told Ran Finance. "Fresh e-commerce companies that survive are already sizable. I suggest steady development during this period; there's no need to lose money to scale up." Li Wei agrees: "Fresh e-commerce is very restrained on pricing. We care more about long-term user retention and won't do one-off deals." **-02-Insufficient Order Density Poses RisksMore Work, More Losses** While first- and second-tier cities are busy grabbing groceries, third- and fourth-tier cities are also active. In previous Spring Festivals, community group buying leaders usually took a break, but this year they started early. Compared to first-tier city users, those in third-tier and below care less about delivery time and more about cost-effectiveness. Community group buying solves this by offering fresh, affordable produce without needing to visit markets, and contactless delivery reduces infection risk. Among community group buying platforms, Shihuituan focuses on fresh produce, which accounts for 60%-75% of daily sales. Before the outbreak, Shihuituan cut off orders at 11 PM, with data matching predictions sent to the procurement department during the day. Goods arrived at warehouses between midnight and 2 AM, were inspected, packed from 2-4 AM, and delivered by drivers from 5-7 AM along optimized routes, completing delivery the next day. During the pandemic, this rhythm was disrupted on the first day back to work. "As soon as we opened, vegetables were snapped up. To ensure supply, operations immediately restocked," a Shihuituan representative told Ran Finance. Demand has shifted significantly, with purchases concentrated on vegetables, meat, eggs, rice, flour, oil, and instant foods. "Especially leafy greens—one day, spinach sales at one warehouse broke its record for leafy greens." To maintain supply, Shihuituan uses two models: centralized procurement with nationwide shipping from source origins, optimizing logistics routes; and local procurement to adjust local inventory and improve freshness. "Our GMV exceeded 500 million yuan in January, with over ten large origin resources nationwide for direct shipping," the representative said. While the supply chain model works, community group buying faces minor delivery obstacles. During the strictest control periods, streets and transportation were restricted, preventing goods from moving. Shihuituan has been actively communicating with local governments, and most cities have now obtained resumption permits. Another issue is cost: procurement costs surge during the pandemic, but sales prices cannot rise. An investor told Ran Finance that without capital support, small community groups can't afford to operate. Community group buying meets the need for savings, requiring high order density. With property management restricting entry, traffic may decline. Unstable orders and supply, failing to fill trucks, lead to losses—more work, more losses. Failed deliveries also trigger complaints. Image / VCG Meanwhile, the issue of disloyal group leaders persists. Some leaders, seeing good sales, bypass platforms to source directly from production areas, or switch platforms after a few months if earnings disappoint, like Didi drivers. Unless one platform dominates—which is unlikely now—this remains a problem. "Part-timers never do well; they work only if profitable. Why should leaders be loyal?" the investor said. **-03-The Grocery BattleTests Efficiency Across the Entire Chain** The pandemic continues, blocking the entire supply chain. Ensuring supply is hard; ensuring timely delivery and experience is harder. First, logistics issues. Early on, many logistics companies supported Wuhan, but drivers and vehicles required quarantine after deliveries, and many staff couldn't return post-holiday, leaving only holiday duty personnel. Second, manpower issues. According to Beijing's Transport Commission, over 10 million left Beijing in the first 14 days of Spring Festival travel, with over 8 million yet to return. From February 2-18, over 2 million booked return tickets, but nearly 5.93 million potential returnees remain. This means nearly 6 million people may not resume work soon. "If logistics don't recover, commerce can't flow; without commerce, consumption stalls, making operations harder. You can control people but never cut off supply," advised Huang Gang, chairman of Hansun Supply Chain. Third, with supply falling short of demand, competition centers on supply chains, including availability, quality, efficient supply and transport, and long-term user value. "Demand is fine; anything you have will sell. Whether customers return depends on product quality and service capability," Shi Zhuojie said. Image / Pexels Finally, fresh products are seasonal and require cold-chain logistics. Improper handling due to logistics issues leads to complaints. Payment cycles are also a challenge; even if products ship and list, waiting for payment is a major issue. In critical times, both fresh e-commerce and agricultural products face problems. Recently, many strawberries and oranges are unsold. This year's strawberry harvest in Dandong was good but couldn't sell. Huang Gang suggests that before restrictions ease, upcoming produce should focus on county-level circulation. Produce launching before June should have channel and production-sales connections planned, possibly with pre-sales. Cherries in March-April and lychees in May should have contingency plans. **-04-Crisis Brings OpportunitiesNew Variables for Fresh E-commerce** Smart entrepreneurs and investors see opportunities in crises. Just as SARS educated the e-commerce market, this pandemic is a chance to educate the fresh e-commerce market and cultivate online grocery habits. Multiple interviewees told Ran Finance that as supply-demand matching imbalances, new opportunities emerge. First, a new agricultural supply chain model: from supermarket special supply to direct community supply. Closed environments concentrate populations, changing consumption patterns. Collect scattered household demands into community procurement, directed to supermarkets like Wumei or Yonghui, forming a new supply chain. Shift from B2C to F2B, with farms supplying communities directly. Huang Gang notes that communities around Hangzhou, Zhejiang, are placing collective orders for daily goods, with direct supply to communities for pickup or delivery. This is a new model. In the future, supermarkets should transform from "fishing" for customers to logistics supply chain centers, with flattened channels and direct community supply. "Produce about to launch should build relationships with communities with high purchasing power, offer samples, then take collective orders for direct origin supply," Huang Gang suggested. Additionally, in the coming months, restaurant retailization is a new opportunity for fresh e-commerce, or a chance for many restaurants to save themselves. "Standardize restaurant output and use retailization to meet dining needs. Previously you ate in-store; now bring the store home," Shi Zhuojie said. With supply tight, restaurant clients are breaking old supply systems and using new channels. One approach is processing food into semi- or fully-processed forms. A well-known restaurant is cooking beef and selling it via e-commerce for home reheating. Another is clean-cut vegetables: standard, small portions, finely processed for easy home cooking, which pairs well with delivery and clears inventory. Some fresh e-commerce platforms are seeking new partnerships. For example, Miss Fresh cooperates with Xibei and Meizhou Dongpo, with Miss Fresh providing raw materials and the restaurants providing labor to process vegetables into standard products on a per-piece basis. Consumers have two dining needs: cooking at home and eating out. While eating out is restricted, upgraded home dining like "hotpot at home" becomes a substitute. Home hotpot is simple, with ingredients mostly frozen and in stock. "Our portfolio company Guoquan saw daily sales surge to around 20 million yuan. They run community stores selling hotpot ingredients and prepared dishes," Li Zhujie, founding partner of Buhuo Ventures, told Ran Finance. Such convenient community services will grow further. Moreover, new formats are always being tried. Huang Gang believes post-pandemic, live-streaming from production areas will be effective, showing what's selling well. It builds trust and fan loyalty. Warehouse live-streaming, showing processing and sorting, also works well. Huang Gang says this area is overlooked because agricultural prices are transparent, and profits aren't as quick as beauty products. But after the pandemic, pent-up demand will create significant opportunities. Image / Pexels This year, fresh e-commerce should strengthen ties with production areas and channels, deeply binding with B-sides, even investing. This is like "order-based" agriculture, flattening production-sales relationships rather than following market fluctuations. The surge in online grocery shoppers provides ample opportunities. How players respond to today's changes and their impact on the industry will be closely watched. *Cover image from VCG. At the interviewee's request, Li Wei is a pseudonym. Source: Ran Finance (ID: rancaijing).