Editor's Note: Half a year later, these four stories still hold profound meaning. Amid the ever-changing situation, fast variables and slow variables aptly interpret the underlying meaning of "great transformation, new cycle." Especially in this year's FMCG industry, after turbulent upheavals, everyone is seeking their own slow variables to enter a new growth cycle. The year is already more than half over; looking back at this article, I hope it can inspire you.
Let me start with four short stories:
01
Li-Ning and Laoganma
The first story is a question posed by the author on Liang Jiangjun's public account to readers:
Is Li-Ning more innovative, or is Laoganma more innovative? Which one is more actively embracing market changes?
The answer is Li-Ning.
But which of Li-Ning and Laoganma faces less competitive pressure? Which one is more comfortable?
The answer is Laoganma.
TV ads, video ads, performance ads, live-streaming e-commerce, private domain traffic... Marketing trends have iterated several rounds, and Laoganma has missed every wave—or rather, it hasn't participated in any of them. Yet it still thrives, and its market sales remain high.
Laoganma has "trend antibodies," allowing it to thrive even while ignoring some small trends.
Currently, every company is shouting "embrace change," but few can "resist change." Darwin's "survival of the fittest" has influenced too many people, who often exhaust themselves chasing trends while overlooking larger, slower variables.
Regarding "slow variables," I've seen an interesting analogy.
First, let me ask you a question: "Why are there waves in the sea?"
The most direct answer is because of wind—no wind, no waves.
But the great waves that span the entire ocean are not caused by wind; they are caused by the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon, which is the tidal phenomenon.
Here, wind is a fast variable, while gravity is a slow variable.
If you are a ship captain and set sail without checking the weather forecast, you might be in danger immediately.
But if you don't understand the patterns of tides, you can't use tidal patterns to fish or make salt.
Every company is shouting to "embrace change," but few can see the relationship between fast and slow variables behind the changes.
Those who see the patterns of change can thrive even if they ignore some small trends.
Doing business and building brands is the same: embracing change is good, but being exhausted by change is a form of chronic suicide. While embracing change, we should also have "trend antibodies" and grasp the slow variables that truly influence the major trends.
02
The Fishermen of Chile
If you travel to Chile in South America, you'll see a strange sight: on one side of the blue sea, there is an endless barren desert.
But the residents here are very content, because Chile's Pacific coast is one of the world's four major fishing grounds: with the right methods, you can catch many valuable big fish—anchovies, cod, and sardines.
However, starting in the spring of 1982, these fishermen suddenly noticed that the fish had disappeared.
In the following two years, no matter what ancestral techniques they used, they could no longer catch those big fish.
So where did the fish go?
What the fishermen didn't know was that they had always been beneficiaries of a natural wonder. The richness of Chile's coast was due to a cold ocean current lurking 1,000 meters below the sea surface, flowing from the central South Pacific toward the east.
Upon meeting Chile's coast, this current brought nutrients from the seabed to the surface, attracting many fish to feed, which eventually fell into the fishermen's nets.
But in 1982, a warm ocean current from Southeast Asia invaded this area, crossing half the globe. The lighter warm water firmly covered the cold current, preventing the seabed nutrients from rising.
This phenomenon later got a more famous name: El Niño.
Without the seabed nutrients, the fish starved to death—this was the real reason for the fishermen's heavy losses.
They were unaware that what truly determined their catch was not their daily fishing skills, but the ocean current 1,000 meters below the sea—that was the real driver of all their harvest.
Fishermen who cannot see the patterns of ocean currents, no matter how hard they try, can only be wise after the event.
Under an irreversible major trend, every enterprise and every individual is fragile. When the train of the times hits you, it won't say sorry.
Most of us are like the Chilean fishermen, putting all our energy and effort into catching more fish. But our efforts and skills are nothing in the face of a true major trend. Only by seeing the patterns behind the trends can we understand how many possibilities we still have.
Many people saw that Genki Forest was very popular in the past two years, jumping from over 2 billion in 2020 to 7 billion in 2021, and thought the sugar-free trend had arrived. Suddenly, various brands launched sugar-free products. But many didn't notice that in 2021, Coca-Cola's global single-serve volume grew 8%, revenue grew 17%, and profit grew 15%, with even more impressive growth in China.
Those media shouting that Coca-Cola is finished didn't see that although both are carbonated drinks and consumers seem to favor Genki, the two companies represent two different trends: Coca-Cola represents the lowest-cost reward, while Genki represents the lowest-cost health.
So we shouldn't just follow Genki Forest's sugar-free push; we should see the consumer trends behind the two brands.
03
The Parrots of Mexico
Parrots usually stand on a stick with a chain on their foot to prevent them from flying away, but Mexican parrots don't have that.
Mexican parrots actually have an invisible chain on their feet.
When the parrot is just born and has no feathers yet, the trainer makes it stand on a stick, then suddenly yanks the stick away, and it falls. Then it makes it stand on the stick again, yanks it again, and it falls again.
To avoid falling off the stick, it will grip the stick tightly. So tightly that no matter how you yank it, it won't fall again. It develops a strong fear of not gripping the stick, believing that only by gripping it tightly can it have true security.
So when it later grows wings and can fly, because fear and risk awareness have filled its mind, it believes that to be safe, it must grip the stick tightly.
The owner doesn't need a chain to tie its leg; it just stands on the stick and won't fly away. Even if the owner leaves for days and food is on the table, it will never fly down to eat. This parrot will grip the stick tightly until it starves to death.
There are similar stories, like the elephants in Thailand.
For these animals, their physical space is actually large—they have wings, strength, and plenty of room to move. But their psychological space is zero, so their physical space becomes zero as well.
Strategy is essentially about trade-offs, but the correctness of trade-offs depends on the decision-maker's vision, which we can understand as the ability to judge space.
A situation can be divided into two types: an open situation and a hidden situation.
The open situation is external, visible to everyone, while the hidden situation is internal, not visible to everyone. Having vision means being able to see through the hidden situation and having enough inner psychological space.
The story of the Mexican parrot shows that when inner space is insufficient, even if the outer space is large, it's hard to break free from that stick.
04
Three Versions of the Empty City Strategy
Version 1: Zhuge Liang Outwits Sima Yi Zhuge Liang and Sima Yi were both masters. Masters automatically ignore the open situation; their contest is in the hidden situation.
Open situation: This is an empty city. Hidden situation: There is an ambush inside the city; Zhuge Liang is calmly playing the zither on the city tower to lure Sima Yi into attacking.
Sima Yi's action: Sima Yi thinks against instinct—since Zhuge Liang has set up an ambush, I won't fall for it; I'll retreat immediately.
Result: Zhuge Liang, without using a single soldier, stopped Sima Yi's army outside the city and made him retreat.
Version 2: Sima Yi Sees Through Zhuge Liang's Cards Sima Yi saw that there was a trick, and within the trick, another trick—this Empty City Strategy was just Zhuge Liang's last resort.
Open situation: The city is empty; Zhuge Liang is bluffing. Hidden situation: Because of Zhuge Liang, Sima Yi has value. Once he eliminates Zhuge Liang, his mission is complete. After this victory, he might immediately return to prison.
Result: Sima Yi retreats to protect his position.
Version 3: Zhuge Liang Is the Big Winner Zhuge Liang set up this Empty City Strategy because he knew Sima Yi's predicament.
Open situation: The city is empty; Sima Yi wants to attack. Hidden situation: Sima Yi must fight Zhuge Liang but cannot eliminate him; Sima Yi needs to keep a rival to maintain his own importance, protect his ecosystem, and preserve his living space.
Result: Sima Yi retreats and gets a plausible excuse to give Cao Rui; Zhuge Liang successfully defends the city without using a single soldier.
This story shows why contests between masters are not about the open situation but the hidden situation—there are layers of hidden situations within situations.
The true winner is the one who holds the real trump card in the layers of hidden situations. This story again verifies what we said earlier: competition is not just about strength, but also about vision.
Although the external space was gone, both Zhuge Liang and Sima Yi saw the hidden situation—where their inner living space was—so both survived.
Summary:
Putting these four stories together, for an industry or an individual, our achievements are essentially determined by two types of variables: if you can't master fast variables, you can't survive; if you can't master slow variables, you can't make money.
So we need to see clearly what our slow variables are—our core values, the direction of our efforts, and the foundation of our business.
Fast variables are our fishing skills; slow variables are the ocean currents. No matter how skilled we are at fishing, it's useless if we're in a place without fish.
So we need to see the changes and trends in the world, but we must understand that not all changes are trends. There may be a typhoon today, but it may not come tomorrow. We shouldn't focus on the typhoon, but on meteorological science.
Why do many people feel anxious because business isn't going well? Essentially, it's not that our market space is really being squeezed out; most of the time, it's just that our mental space is insufficient.
Many distributors in county towns think daily about how to achieve 30% growth in a small county of 300,000 people, but they don't see that the internet can greatly expand our living space. Even with a population of 300,000, we can do omnichannel marketing and achieve multiplied growth.
Some categories have high online penetration; that's an open situation and a fact, but it doesn't mean there are no opportunities for survival and growth. The key is who can see the industry opportunities beneath such high penetration—only then can they survive in the ever-changing market competition.
Seeing slow variables, grasping invisible patterns, holding the basic foundation, and seeking larger living space—these are the four questions we should think about now.
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