Marketing is fundamentally a response to market demand, and shifts in demand always move in step with the times. From the 'land-grab' of the growth era to the 'intensive cultivation' of the contraction era, the underlying logic of the consumer market has undergone a disruptive change—the mass marketing HBG model, which once worked through 'large-scale production, broad-reach advertising, and extensive channel coverage,' is being replaced by precise penetration of segmented audiences and resonance with niche circles. This shift is not accidental but an inevitable result of slowing economic growth and evolving consumer attitudes.
Growth Era: Mass Marketing as 'Optimal Efficiency' The core characteristic of the growth era was 'demand exceeding supply.' Rapid economic growth created a vast consumer base, and demographic dividends combined with homogeneous demand made the 'mass market' a battleground for enterprises. The marketing logic was simple: use scale for efficiency, use coverage for sales. Companies didn't need to worry about individual consumer needs; they just had to make a standardized product with extreme cost-performance, distribute it through national channels to every corner, and pair it with high-frequency advertising on mass media like TV and newspapers to reach hundreds of millions of consumers. Coca-Cola, for instance, with its 'one cola sold globally' standardization strategy, achieved full coverage through supermarkets, convenience stores, and restaurants, and by tying the product to the 'drink Coke during New Year' scenario, became a collective memory for generations. Similarly, in the beer industry, Qingdao and Snow, with their 'affordable and smooth' mass-market offerings, relied on high-frequency scenarios like street-side dining and family gatherings to support annual sales in the tens of millions of tons. During this period, mass marketing was essentially 'batch satisfaction of common needs'—consumers sought 'having' rather than 'quality,' 'affordability' rather than 'individuality.' As long as companies seized the 'large population, concentrated demand' characteristic and used 'deep distribution plus advertising bombardment,' they could quickly capture the market. This model was the optimal efficiency solution in the growth era, but it also laid the groundwork for the difficulties of the contraction era. The growth era peaked around 2013! After that, we entered a long period of consumption slowdown, even contraction.
Contraction Era: Divergence Begins—Mass, Segmented, Niche As economic growth slows and markets become saturated, the 'demand divergence' of the contraction era arrives. Consumers have completely moved away from 'chasing brands and blindly following trends' in mass consumption, instead pursuing 'de-branding, cost-performance, individuality, and cultural identity.' On one hand, consumer trust in 'mass brands' declines, and they favor 'small and beautiful' niche brands. For example, niche skincare brands focusing on 'no additives' can survive in the cracks between Shiseido and Kao by positioning for 'sensitive skin.' On the other hand, channels prioritize 'precise matching': traditional supermarkets reduce shelf space for mass-market products, replaced by 'scenario-based displays' in community convenience stores (like breakfast combos in office-building convenience stores or parent-child snack sections in family-oriented stores) and 'personalized recommendations' on online platforms. The core of this change is the 'rise of consumer sovereignty'—when material abundance is no longer an issue, people start asking, 'Does this product suit me?' and 'Does it reflect my lifestyle?' At this point, the 'broad coverage' of mass marketing becomes a disadvantage: half the advertising budget is wasted, and half the products on shelves become inventory. The beer industry's transformation is particularly evident: mass-produced industrial beer, once dominant on dining tables, is being diverted by craft beer, and the emergence of Venus Chinese-style craft beer is a precise response to this diversion.
Scenario Marketing: The 'Key to Breaking Through' for Segmented and Niche Markets Marketing in the contraction era can no longer focus on the 'mass group' but must zero in on 'people in scenarios'—the same consumer may belong to different markets in different scenarios: drinking affordable beer at a weekday dinner (mass scenario), enjoying fruit-flavored craft beer at a weekend picnic with friends (segmented scenario), or choosing a limited-edition tea beer at a birthday party (niche scenario). The value of scenario marketing is to break the boundaries between mass, segmented, and niche markets, allowing marketing to precisely match scenario needs.
Segmented: Capture 'Group Commonality in Scenarios' Segmented marketing is not 'a smaller mass market' but 'a focus on groups within specific scenarios.' It doesn't aim to reach everyone, only to cover 'a specific group in a specific scenario.' For example, the current 'late-night food hall' scenario has given rise to small-pack instant soup brands that target 'single-serve, low-burden' options, precisely matching the late-night needs of urban single white-collar workers. Venus Chinese-style craft beer also understands this well: targeting the 'young women's girls' night out' scenario, it launched Venus Chinese-style craft beer—combining Chinese tea to perfectly fit the segmented needs of 'tipsy, photo-worthy, light socializing,' and through online and offline scenario marketing, quickly became a 'party staple' for young women. The key to segmented marketing is 'binding scenarios to groups': find the high-frequency scenario of a certain group, then use the product to solve pain points in that scenario—this is ten times more efficient than blindly advertising to the mass market.
Niche: Create 'Circle Resonance in Scenarios' The core of the niche market is 'cultural identity.' Its scenarios are rarer and needs more unique, but user loyalty is extremely strong. The 'artisan brands' in Japan mentioned in 'The Fourth Consumer Era' are a model of the niche market—for example, handmade ceramic brands that, through the artisan spirit of 'each piece is unique,' build word-of-mouth within high-end tea ceremony scenarios. Even at high prices, they attract loyal consumers. Venus Chinese-style craft beer's 'Xinyang Maojian Limited Edition' is another example. It targets the niche circle of 'Chinese culture enthusiasts,' incorporating Xinyang pre-Qingming Maojian tea into beer brewing, and pairs it with 'tea culture tasting sessions'—inviting tea masters to explain the 'flavor fusion of tea and wine,' allowing consumers to experience the cultural connotation of 'Chinese-style brewing' while drinking. This kind of marketing doesn't chase sales volume; instead, through scenario resonance, it turns the niche circle into brand 'ambassadors,' which in turn enhances the brand's tone in the segmented market.
Marketing Evolution Direction: From 'Mass Coverage' to 'Scenario Deep Cultivation' Marketing in the contraction era is no longer a choice of 'whether to do mass marketing' but an inevitability of 'how to break through with segmented and niche strategies.' Three directions are worth noting:
First, shift from 'product-oriented' to 'scenario-oriented.' Mass marketing is 'first have a product, then find a scenario'; in the contraction era, it's 'first find a scenario, then make a product.' For example, Japanese convenience stores adjust the flavors and packaging of rice balls and bento boxes according to 'breakfast, lunch, late-night' scenarios. Venus Chinese-style craft beer also first identified the scenarios of 'women's light socializing' and 'Chinese culture tasting,' then developed products accordingly, rather than forcing one product into all scenarios.
Second, shift from 'media placement' to 'scenario penetration.' Mass marketing relies on 'advertising bombardment'; in the contraction era, it's 'scenario implantation.' For example, Mingren Soda Water didn't invest much in TV ads but instead used 'Drink Mingren before and after drinking alcohol'—combining Mingren soda water with tobacco and liquor stores, and with the 'relieves hangover and greasiness' label, precisely hitting the 'drinking' need. Venus Chinese-style craft beer, through 'girls' night out' and 'food blogger scenario seeding,' naturally appears in the life scenarios of the target group, which is more effective than advertising.
Third, shift from 'winning by scale' to 'value resonance.' Mass marketing competes on 'cost-performance'; in the contraction era, it's 'value identification.' Japan's Muji, with its 'minimalist, eco-friendly' values, builds brand loyalty in the segmented market. Venus Chinese-style craft beer's 'Chinese-style brewing' positioning also conveys cultural value, making consumers pay for 'uniqueness' rather than 'low price.'
Conclusion: Farewell, Mass China's market is vast, and there is a contradiction between people's aspirations for a better life and unbalanced development. Consumers from different regions and economic backgrounds have different understandings and goals for a better life. In the long run, mass, segmented, and niche markets will coexist in China. But marketing has no eternal model—only models of the era. As the 'mass dividend' of the growth era fades, the 'precision dividend' of the contraction era is arriving. Mass marketing cannot respond to the scenario needs of segmented markets, nor can it satisfy the circle resonance of niche markets. The future of marketing is no longer 'selling one product to everyone' but 'finding the right product for people in different scenarios.' From mass to segmented to niche, from scale to precision to resonance—this is not a regression in marketing but an inevitable return to its essence.