Click to read the original article for details. The Mid-Autumn Festival period, spanning July, August, and September, is the best time each year to occupy warehouse space. Manufacturers encourage dealers to stock up for the Mid-Autumn Festival through various policy incentives, and dealers then push products to channel distributors through tiered distribution policies or by organizing ordering meetings. This has basically been a tried-and-true tactic for FMCG products, especially those focused on channel gifts, for years. Undoubtedly, it is perfectly acceptable for manufacturers to occupy dealers' warehouse space and funds before the peak season, and for dealers to use the same tactic to squeeze various resources from channel distributors. This is also an annual routine in the FMCG industry. However, in the past two years, more dealers have lamented that the Mid-Autumn Festival business is getting worse year by year. After occupying channel distributors' funds and warehouse space, the result is that after the festival, sell-through is very slow, and terminals either demand returns or the credit sales have no repayment date. After the Mid-Autumn Festival, looking at the full warehouse of goods pressed before the festival, you haven't sold much, and looking at a pile of IOUs, you dare not ask for payment. If you ask, the terminal boss will be more anxious than you: "Lao Wang, take your goods back; they basically didn't sell during the Mid-Autumn Festival..." Whether you admit it or not, the actual sell-through during the Mid-Autumn Festival in the past two years is indeed not as good as in previous years, to be precise, it is getting worse year by year. First, let's sort out why the Mid-Autumn Festival sales atmosphere has been getting worse in recent years. 1. People's awareness of the Mid-Autumn Festival is becoming weaker The Mid-Autumn Festival is one of the three most important traditional festivals in China, but with the accelerated pace of modern life, the festive atmosphere is getting worse. The author remembers that when he was a child, during the Mid-Autumn Festival, people would visit relatives, give gifts, and elderly people at home would receive many gifts. Now everyone is busy making a living, so these old traditions are gradually weakening. 2. When does the actual sell-through happen during the Mid-Autumn Festival? Currently, for Mid-Autumn Festival products, especially the channel gift market, the main consumer groups are still the post-70s and post-80s generations. Unlike in the past, these mainstream consumer groups are either working away from home or busy with business, and they try to save time by not visiting relatives and friends if possible. Terminal merchants often say every year: "It's almost the 14th of August (lunar calendar), why haven't we sold much?" In fact, the real sales time for these gift markets is only the 13th and 14th of August (lunar calendar), the golden two days. Unlike the Spring Festival, which sees a new small peak from the 2nd to the 15th of the first lunar month, the Mid-Autumn Festival does not have such a follow-up peak. 3. Terminal merchants are stocking up later and later Due to lagging sell-through, terminal merchants are delaying their stocking more and more. Often, when dealers find that early stocking has little effect, they sigh: "Terminal merchants are getting harder to fool!" Because after years of these routine tactics, channel distributors know them well: "Don't tell me the policy is only for these days. When I ask you to deliver closer to the Mid-Autumn Festival, you'll have to give me the same policy incentives." Indeed, channel distributors and consumers now have no shortage of product choices. In addition, with the economic downturn in the past two years and weak consumer purchasing power, these terminal bosses are unwilling to tie up large amounts of capital except for essential goods. "Can I get credit and pay you after the Mid-Autumn Festival?" "Credit? Sorry, I have no place to store your goods!" Whether you admit it or not, this is the actual situation in more markets. But as a dealer, the problem is: manufacturers use various carrots and sticks, market competition is fierce, if you don't press the channel, others will, and for every unit of competitor product sold, you sell one less. How should we deal with these contradictory problems? 1. Reasonably estimate Mid-Autumn Festival sales No matter how strong the manufacturer's incentives and temptations are, dealers must understand the actual local market situation, even down to data for each terminal outlet. Combine historical sales data for each terminal outlet during the same period of the Mid-Autumn Festival (usually referring to August, September, and October), the growth (or decline) trend of the product category in the local market this year, the competitive landscape this year, and your own product line, team, and other factors to comprehensively analyze and summarize the estimated stocking quantity for this product category. Of course, you must also consider the manufacturer's policy for the product and the product's shelf life. After these data are obtained, you must also consider a pre-digestion plan in case problems arise. Remember, dealers should not rely on gut feeling. Objective stocking for the Mid-Autumn Festival is indeed a technical and detailed task, and it also tests a dealer's usual team management and channel control capabilities. If you have a drink with the manufacturer's salesperson and say, "Brother, no problem, how much more can you stock?" and then after the festival you hide in the toilet and slap yourself, you deserve it. 2. Deep maintenance is fundamental Especially for products with channel gift attributes, such products are usually pressed to terminals with few SKUs but large quantities. If the dealer does not have assessment and management for the maintenance work of their sales team, the result is often that the salesperson takes the commission, and after the festival, a pile of damaged products is returned. Market competition is fierce, and you know the importance of channel stocking, but others are doing it too. Even others are doing it better than you. This 'better' is largely reflected in terminal maintenance and follow-up. So, if you neglect your 'children' after giving birth to them and suffer losses, it shows your management is too low-level. 3. Selective outlets and appropriate stocking are best Often, during the pre-festival stocking, dealers do not understand their terminal outlets, or salespeople aim to maximize commissions, or make random promises, resulting in pressing as much stock as possible to any terminal, which can cause some terminals to stock far more than their actual sales capacity. In the end, the dealer pays the price. What to do? Dealers must understand the historical data of each terminal outlet and, based on this historical data and the actual situation of the terminal store this year, set stocking tasks for each store. This way, you can avoid random stocking. Source: Businessman (商业家) -END-