The panic phase is over, and now it's time for rational thinking, especially about the post-pandemic period. First, let's sort out whether there will be revenge spending after the pandemic ends; then, remind what to do first? Will there be revenge spending after the pandemic? If so, when is the window period and opportunity point for revenge spending? Industries heavily affected by the pandemic, such as catering, hotels, tourism, offline entertainment, and gifts, are particularly concerned about this. This topic cannot be guessed like fortune-telling. Nor can it be discussed generally without segmentation. I will analyze consumption recovery in five major scenarios: namely, household consumption, business consumption, government-business consumption, social consumption, and outdoor consumption. **-01- Household Consumption Categories with reduced consumption: aquatic products, meat, poultry, soy products, baijiu, red wine, beer, beverages, dairy products, cosmetics, and decorative items. There are quite a few categories with reduced consumption. Categories with basically stable consumption: fruits and condiments. Categories with increased consumption: vegetables, rice, flour, grain and oil, frozen foods/convenience foods, snack foods, and tea. Opportunity point: During the pandemic, household consumption had increases and decreases, but overall changes were not significant. Because the pandemic period was long, and household reserves were arranged according to normal holidays. Although there was some purchasing during the pandemic, household storage was largely depleted. After the pandemic ends, there will definitely be "compensatory purchasing," and the average transaction value may be much larger than after previous holidays. If the prediction is accurate, merchants will naturally know what to do. This is not revenge spending, but rather concentrated purchasing after normal consumption, which can be seen as "compensatory purchasing." Window period: After the pandemic is lifted, there will be short-term concentrated purchasing, with a short window period, so quick action is especially important. Affected categories: household daily necessities. **-02- Business Consumption and Government-Business Consumption Business consumption and government-business consumption affect industries such as catering, hotels, and entertainment. Business and government-business consumption have been greatly suppressed by the pandemic. Based on post-SARS performance, business activities will boom in the short term because they need to make up for the impact during the pandemic. For example, in the past, only salespeople traveled on business, but now senior executives will come out. After all, online communication cannot solve many problems that require face-to-face meetings, and some issues can only be resolved when senior management gets involved. Window period: Business consumption will explode immediately once the pandemic is lifted. This is one of the key areas of revenge spending. Government-business consumption may be slightly later. Opportunity points: Business hotels will definitely see opportunities, and business-related catering is also an opportunity. Affected categories: hotels, catering, alcoholic beverages, gifts, and tea. **-03- Social Consumption Normal social consumption among friends, family, and colleagues. During the special period, I also include two categories: postponed wedding banquets and visiting relatives and friends. This is relatively difficult to predict, and revenge spending may mainly refer to this part. After all, business consumption can be seen as deferred rigid demand, while social consumption has strong elasticity. Being cooped up at home for a long time, online activities are boring, and offline scenarios are more precious. After the pandemic is lifted, social emotions will be released, and the possibility of revenge spending is high. Opportunity points:

  1. I tend to think there will be short-term high-frequency socializing, such as celebrations; 2. Urban visits to relatives and friends will compensate partially, while rural compensation will be less (mainly because young people have returned to cities); 3. Some wedding banquets will be rescheduled; 4. After work resumes, there will be more overtime, and post-overtime dinners will increase accordingly. Window period: After the pandemic is lifted for a period, there will still be a "limited contact period," where large gatherings are not yet allowed. Affected categories: gifts, alcoholic beverages, catering, and tea. **-04- Outdoor Consumption Due to strict quarantine measures, streets are empty, and outdoor consumption has been greatly affected, such as bottled water, beverages, cigarettes, snack foods, tea drinks, and cold drinks. Products related to this will not have compensatory consumption. Similarly, offline entertainment and tourism are less likely to see revenge spending, and may even decrease due to increased overtime. **-05- After the Pandemic Lifts, What to Do First? After the pandemic is lifted, I believe we should focus on the following five tasks: First, seize the "window period" for consumption and sales. Note the following points: 1. Different categories have different consumption and sales window periods; if you miss the window, it's truly gone; 2. The consumption window period and the procurement window period may be staggered. For example, before the catering revenge spending window, the catering industry will purchase goods in large quantities, such as vegetables and fresh produce. Second, quickly replenish and transfer stock. During the pandemic, retail stores performed very differently; some closed, some ran out of stock. It is essential to replenish out-of-stock stores immediately. Because store performance varies greatly, manufacturers and distributors should proactively transfer stock. Transfer from overstocked terminals to good terminals, especially for credit sales products, which need faster transfer. Third, quickly restore the supply chain and activate backup plans. Due to different start times for different companies and regions, logistics is also greatly affected. Resuming work may face supply chain guarantees. For manufacturers, it's important to have backup plans in advance; for the supply chain, this is a rare opportunity. Fourth, get personnel in place quickly. If there are difficulties in getting personnel in place, there should be remedial measures. Fifth, for products that are truly difficult to sell normally, switch sales scenarios. Gifts may be a major problem category. Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, and Fujian are all major gift-consuming provinces, especially in rural areas. Gift sales have a window period; once it passes, the consumption scenario disappears. Gift sales may need to switch scenarios: first, sell gifts by unpacking, such as turning gift beverages into immediate consumption, which is suitable for dairy products; second, switch to other scenarios. This time, second- and third-tier brand gifts are more affected because it's harder to switch scenarios. **-06- Revisiting Organizational Capability During Corporate Crises Chinese brands performed poorly overall during the pandemic. First, their response speed was insufficient; second, they failed to organize the entire channel. This shows that channels are highly dependent on personnel being on-site. After the pandemic is lifted, companies should organize quickly from top to bottom: First, quickly identify opportunity points and window periods to make up for losses during the pandemic. Second, the entire channel system should act in unison, not fight separately. Third, if there are promotional policies, they should be in place in advance. After all, the window period is short. Source: Teacher Liu's New Marketing (ID: liuchunxiong1964)