Source | Sales and Marketing Over the past 25 years, China has undergone a silent yet profound demographic revolution that has reshaped the nation's population and is completely rewriting the rules of the business world. With 657 million people aged 40 and above now reshaping China's consumer market, a complete overturning of business logic is underway. In 2000, China's population under 40 was as high as 870 million, accounting for about 75% of the total population. Twenty-five years later, China's demographic structure has undergone a historic shift—the population aged 40 and above has reached 657 million, accounting for over 46.7% of the total population. This structural shift is profoundly changing the underlying logic of China's consumer market. The former "youth-dominated" consumption model has been overturned, and a new consumer era driven by mature consumers has officially arrived. This means that the "backbone" of Chinese society has shifted from "800 million youth" to "800 million mature adults." This epic transformation from "800 million young people" to "nearly 700 million middle-aged and elderly" is the deepest and most enduring underlying variable in China's socio-economic development. This shift is far more than a simple change in numbers; it is a perfect storm sweeping through the consumer market, business logic, brand strategy, marketing tactics, and channel landscape. Understanding the origins, path, and impact of this storm is a required course for every entrepreneur and investor who intends to establish a foothold in China's future market. Structural Transformation: A Comparison of Two Demographic Pictures Looking back at 2000, when the total population was about 1.2 billion, China had a typical growth-oriented demographic structure. The 870 million young people under 40 were in the life stage of settling down and starting families, generating massive consumption of "rigid demands" such as real estate, automobiles, basic home appliances, and maternal and infant products. Young people provided abundant labor for economic development, constituted the most active mainstay of the consumer market at that time, and were an important advantage for China's economy to reap a huge demographic dividend. These young people were full of infinite hope for the future and consumption vitality. At that time, the social security system was still in its early stages of improvement, and the huge young group was the absolute main force for large-ticket consumption such as buying homes, getting married, and purchasing home appliances. They also constituted a huge market with the core demand for basic living consumption of married and child-rearing families. They drove China's high-speed economic train and shaped a golden age with "growth" and "future" as the core keywords. At that time, the social security and medical insurance systems were still in the early stages of construction, the level of universal security was limited, and society's overall risk resistance was weak. This made consumption behavior exhibit distinct "youthful characteristics": daring to take on debt, valuing immediate gratification, and having strong expectations for future income growth. During this period, enterprises only needed to grasp the two keywords "young people" and "basic needs" to ride the wave. At that time, the population over 40 accounted for only 25%-30%, and the entire country's consumption vitality, market demand, and even innovation direction had to revolve around young people. Twenty-five years have passed in the blink of an eye, and the demographic structure has undergone earth-shaking changes. According to research by the Institute of Population Research at Peking University, China's youth population development faces multiple challenges, with the number of young people continuing to decline. From 2000 to 2020, the population aged 15-34 decreased from 443 million to 364 million, and its share of the total population fell from 35.6% to 25.8%. The base of the population age pyramid is shrinking at an accelerating pace. According to projections, by 2050, when China fully builds a modern socialist country, the population aged 15-34 will decrease to 231 million, accounting for 17.6% of the total population. In stark contrast, the population aged 40 and above has reached 657 million, becoming the new mainstay of China's consumer market. What is more noteworthy is that this trend is still strengthening. The United Nations' "World Population Prospects 2024" report predicts that China, as one of the countries that has already reached its population peak, is expected to experience the largest absolute population loss. From 2024 to 2054, China's population is projected to decrease by 204 million, and by the end of this century, it may decrease by 657.6 million. This means that the historic shift in China's demographic structure is not a short-term fluctuation but a long-term trend that will become the new normal for future business development. In contrast, by 2025, China has steadily entered a "mature society." A population of 657 million aged 40 and above means that the backbone of society has completed a generational handover. The core characteristic of this group lies in the accumulation of wealth and the improvement of security. They have experienced China's period of high-speed economic growth and have accumulated considerable assets; at the same time, after more than 20 years of development, China's social security network (pensions, medical insurance, etc.) has become increasingly complete, providing them with a stable safety net. In particular, the approximately 300 million people receiving pensions have become the most consumption-capable group in society. This means that a new consumer class of significant scale, with stable cash flow and ample time, has formed. They are no longer marginal players in the consumer market but the core group with the strongest purchasing power. Some urban retirees can receive monthly pensions of several thousand or even over ten thousand yuan, and their disposable income may even exceed that of many young people burdened with mortgages and car loans. Consumption Shift: From "Youthful Impulse and Emotional Value" to "Pragmatic Strength and Value-Driven Emotion" This is not just a shift in age groups but a reshaping of social focus and wealth structure. In the past, the engine of the economy was the demographic dividend of the young population; today, the momentum for growth has transformed into the consumption dividend of the mature population. The change in demographic structure has directly led to a shift in the main consumer, and the core driving force of the consumer market is shifting from "youthful impulsive emotional consumption" to "rational, strength-based, emotion-driven consumption." In 2000, China's social security and medical insurance systems were not yet complete, and the consumption willingness of the population over 40 was relatively conservative. Today, with the improvement of the social security system, the population over 40 has become the group with the strongest consumption power. A considerable portion of them have paid off their mortgages, completed investments in their children's education, and have relatively stable wealth accumulation. In particular, the pensioner group constitutes a force in the consumer market that cannot be ignored. Data shows that approximately 300 million people are receiving retirement pensions. Some retirees' pensions are even higher than the wages of local young people, forming a unique "silver consumption power." The consumption concepts of this group have also undergone significant changes. We are surrounded by examples: an ordinary neighbor's monthly pension can reach several thousand or even over ten thousand yuan, and its stability and disposable income may even exceed that of many young people. This group no longer worries about basic housing; their consumption needs have shifted toward health quality, emotional satisfaction, and happiness experiences. The social atmosphere has also shifted from being driven by "vigorous youth" to a pattern where "energetic elderly" and a "middle-aged generation" pursuing stability coexist. In contrast, the saying "middle-aged people with no hope for life," although exaggerated, reflects the social pressures faced by the middle-aged group. The upgrade in consumption cognition is equally profound. In an era of strong income growth expectations, consumers were more easily moved by marketing concepts, and brand symbolic value far outweighed the actual functional value of the product itself, leading to the emergence of numerous "IQ tax" brands such as Zujianli, Naobaijin, Xibei, and Hongmao medicinal liquor. However, against the backdrop of slowing economic growth and increased income uncertainty, consumers have become more rational and pragmatic. At the same time, the gap in spiritual and emotional needs is difficult to effectively fill (market supply of goods is abundant and surplus, but spiritual and emotional supply is severely insufficient). Consumers are increasingly focusing on the actual functional value of products and the emotional, self-expressive, or social added value of brands, rather than the halo of brand awareness. Brands that can resonate with consumers' inner values and adopt a positive, responsible attitude are being sought after and recognized by consumers. Business Logic: From Concept Marketing to Reconstructing Product Functional Value and Brand Added Benefits to Create Brand Momentum The changes in demographic structure and consumer mainstay are driving fundamental changes in business logic. The past 25 years were the era of "concept marketing." Enterprises occupied the market through big logos, advertising bombardment, and channel distribution. Brand added benefits were weak, brand prices were inflated, and the actual functional value of products was often exaggerated by marketing propaganda. That was an era when positioning marketing classics like "Fear of getting heaty? Drink Wanglaoji" could succeed, and it was also an era when young people chased brand symbols. This model was a perfect product of that era of "clear income growth expectations." Consumers were willing to pay a premium for the awareness of big brands and the "beautiful concepts" they promised. As long as the advertising was loud and the concept was deeply ingrained, the actual efficacy of the product itself was not the primary factor in consumer decision-making. Today, as the economy enters a new normal and a period of medium-to-low growth, the expectation of rapid income growth has been broken. Social expectations have turned conservative, and consumers' mentality has shifted from "daring to spend" to "spending wisely." Consumers have become more pragmatic. In particular, the mature group that holds wealth is experienced and not easily moved by flashy false concepts. They place more value on the actual functional value of products, health attributes, and the emotional and cultural soft power of brands. Especially the middle-aged and elderly group, who hold wealth but have become more rational in their consumption concepts, are no longer easily swayed by exaggerated concepts. The marketing environment in the big health industry is shifting from "big logos" to "small logos." Consumers are beginning to pursue the actual functional value benefits of products and whether brands can meet their spiritual, cultural, and emotional needs, becoming increasingly immune to exaggerated marketing concepts and logo symbols. Just as MUJI represents a return to natural simplicity, with no false brand concepts or luxury waste, driven by the product itself and brand philosophy and cultural values, Chinese consumers are also undergoing a similar conceptual shift. Furthermore, from the Japanese consumer market, we can see that traceability marketing, technology marketing, experience marketing, and cultural marketing have long replaced concept marketing. In dealing with population aging and the de-conceptualization of consumption, the Japanese market provides a forward-looking model for us. FANCL has carved out a new world in the skincare and beauty market through its "additive-free" health concept and localized technical formulas; Nintendo, by tapping into young people's social entertainment and two-dimensional culture needs, has transformed game consoles into emotional media, creating a virtual world lifestyle for young people. Yamaha, Honda, Kawasaki, and Suzuki have built brand added benefits by bringing them closer to users through motorcycle racing culture, proving the strong technical strength of Japanese brands, reconstructing the value chain of Japanese motorcycle brands, and providing a model for Japanese brand upgrading. The "Factory Tour" and "Farm Tour" commonly adopted by Japanese enterprises are the ultimate expression of "local cultural marketing and user experience marketing." Enterprises and farms open their production and planting sources, allowing consumers to witness firsthand the unique business philosophy, cultural values, rigorous craftsmanship, safety standards, quality pursuits, employee conduct, and local customs of the enterprise farm. This is not just a marketing activity but a deep trust-building exercise between the brand and consumers. It perfectly integrates the primary industry (agriculture), secondary industry (industry), and tertiary industry (tourism, services), forming a unique complete operational model of "product tasting and trial + immersive user experience + cultural IP traceability + transparent enterprise factory + brand value output" momentum marketing. In China, examples such as "Yuanfang Haowu" (a platform that conducts traceability of source factories in industrial belts through 308 pesticide residue tests, pioneering a healthy organic lifestyle consumption approach and becoming the strongest organic food membership sales platform in China) and "Pangdonglai" (which pioneered cultural value management in the domestic retail industry, achieving wholehearted service by all employees and supplier transparency) are successful practices of "building strong brand momentum by sincerely considering users." Pangdonglai has become a benchmark learning base and a cultural tourism phenomenon. In the next 10 years, "technology marketing, cultural marketing, experience marketing, and traceability marketing" will no longer be just marketing buzzwords but standard configurations for building brand momentum. The channel landscape is also undergoing a transformation from "long chains" to "short chains." The rise of membership discount stores and bulk snack stores has achieved efficiency improvements and cost optimization through disintermediation and direct procurement. This channel change responds to consumers' dual demands for quality-price ratio and transparency. The reconstruction of business logic is happening in various fields. Japan as a Mirror: From High-Speed Growth to Consumption Upgrading Observing the development process of neighboring Japan can provide useful lessons for the transformation of China's consumer market. After Japan's per capita GDP first exceeded $10,000 in the early 1980s, the consumer market began to shift from commodity consumption to higher-level experience economy and service consumption. Transportation, communications, education, healthcare, leisure and entertainment, tourism, and other service experience consumption became new economic hotspots. 1994 was an important watershed for Japan's consumer market, as the share of service experience consumption first exceeded commodity consumption. Since then, it has remained at nearly 60%, and the service experience economy has become the core engine driving Japan's GDP growth. Japanese factories build trust relationships with consumers through "factory traceability and study tours," while agriculture organically combines the primary and tertiary industries through "farm traceability and study tours." The essence of this marketing approach is the construction of transparency and credibility, which precisely meets the demand for healthy consumption upgrading. Japan's consumption transformation occurred against the backdrop of demographic changes. As the degree of aging deepened, Japan's consumer market did not experience large-scale contraction but underwent structural adjustment and consumption upgrading. Consumption fields such as health foods, outdoor leisure, home care, tourism services, domestic high-end goods, food and beverage, consumer electronics, and film and entertainment continued to upgrade and expand. The Way Out: Mindset Revolution and Channel Reconstruction Faced with fundamental changes in demographic structure and the consumer market, Chinese enterprises have generally fallen into the predicament of "involution." However, true involution is not the exhaustion of market demand but the rigidity of entrepreneurial thinking. Enterprises need to completely reform product development, brand strategy, marketing models, and channel strategies. The first priority is a mindset revolution. Currently, 99.5% of consumer goods enterprises in China still use old thinking to make products, without making structural adjustments for the needs of the 657 million people aged 40 and above. Their organizational genes, product R&D systems, and brand marketing experience are all solidified in the model of serving the 800 million young people from 25 years ago, still obsessed with studying people under 40. To this day, few large enterprises dare to publicly declare, "We focus on serving the middle-aged and elderly." This dependence on past successful paths is the root cause of current involution. To break involution, we must first break conceptual involution. Enterprises need to recognize that true involution is not intense market competition but homogeneous thinking. Only when entrepreneurs' mindsets are liberated from "youth worship" can they truly gain insight into the changing needs of the new consumer mainstay. The first step in breaking the deadlock is to conduct a thorough "mindset revolution." Entrepreneurs must recognize: The biggest blue ocean lies among the "657 million" middle-aged and elderly—making structural adjustments to products and services around the health, entertainment, social, and self-actualization needs of the population over 40 is the most important business opportunity for China in the next 30 years. "Big health" is the starting point for redoing all industries: whether it is food, beverages, clothing, home furnishings, home appliances, automobiles, or tourism, finance, and technology, all can be redefined and designed using the value dimension of "health." Channel strategies also need fundamental reconstruction. Future enterprise growth cannot only study tracks but should adhere to the principle of "channels first, tracks second." Channels are not just pipelines for commodity circulation but also segmented entry points for different consumption scenarios and population groups. Today's channel stratification is already very obvious, with different channels corresponding to different groups and consumption scenarios. Consumer stratification is essentially channel stratification. Once a user develops a purchasing habit in a certain channel, it is difficult to cross over to other consumption channels. Enterprises need to understand that the future growth path equals "channels plus tracks." In today's rapidly changing traffic environment, every entrepreneur needs to have channel thinking, understand the scenarios and population characteristics behind different channels, and develop products and design marketing strategies accordingly. Today's channel change is not just about "shortening" but also about "stratification." Traffic entry points have become extremely fragmented. Offline: large supermarkets, community group buying, brand discount stores, membership warehouse stores, etc., each have their followers. Online: platforms such as Taobao, JD.com, Pinduoduo, Douyin, and Xiaohongshu each occupy different user mindsets and shopping scenarios. A key insight is that behind different channels are completely different user groups and consumption scenarios. A user who buys cosmetics in a Douyin live stream may have very little overlap with a user who buys home appliances on JD.com. This means that enterprises can no longer use the old thinking of "one set of goods to conquer the world" to deal with new channels. Instead, they must customize different product portfolios, marketing content, and operational strategies for different channels, achieving "a thousand channels, a thousand faces." Trying to cover all channels with the same product system will only lead to channel conflicts and resource waste. Enterprises need to actively deploy DTC (direct-to-consumer) models, establishing direct, high-frequency interactions with core users through private domain traffic, membership systems, and proprietary platforms, converting "traffic" into "retention." "Factory traceability and study tours" are essentially operating the deepest "private domain." Future Opportunities: The Long-Term Trend of Big Health and Creating Brand Momentum Against the backdrop of demographic changes, business opportunities in the next 5-10 years are mainly concentrated in three directions: the big health industry, value chain marketing, and brand momentum creation. Big health will redo all industries. The 657 million people aged 40 and above's focus on health is not just a product functional need but a value orientation of lifestyle. Sugar-free tea and sugar-free beverages are just the appetizers of the health trend; more industries will be reconstructed by health concepts in the future. Value chain marketing will become mainstream. As consumers shift from concept recognition to value recognition, enterprises need to build a complete, transparent, and verifiable value chain. Whether it is factory traceability and study tours, farm traceability and study tours, traceability marketing, or test reports, all are important components of the value chain. Japan organically combines the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries, enhancing product added value through value chain marketing. This model is not only applicable to the food industry but can also be extended to more consumer goods fields. For enterprises, embracing the consumption needs of the 657 million people aged 40 and above is not a simple age segmentation but a comprehensive reconstruction of user consumption concepts, brand value propositions, product R&D logic, channel stratification layout, and marketing promotion. Only by undergoing comprehensive changes in strategic thinking, brand momentum, product innovation, marketing channels, and organizational talent can enterprises win the first-mover advantage in the consumer market revolution brought about by demographic changes. In the next 10 years, whether they can capture the changing needs of the 657 million people aged 40 and above will determine the survival of consumer goods enterprises. Just as retail channels are accelerating toward "miniaturization, fresh food orientation, and discounting," all industries will find new equilibrium points in the demographic shift. The future of business does not belong to traditional brands that cling to the needs of the young population and market marketing, but to innovators who can deeply understand "middle-aged and elderly China" and reshape their strategy, brand, R&D, products, marketing, and organization accordingly. Against the backdrop of dramatic changes in demographic structure and consumption logic, the logic of building brand momentum is undergoing a fundamental shift. The past model of accumulating momentum through large-scale advertising, channel monopoly, and symbolic recognition is gradually failing among the middle-aged and elderly group, where spiritual demand supply is insufficient and rational, pragmatic consumption concepts prevail. Brand momentum no longer comes solely from awareness and market voice but from consumers' deep identification with the brand's value proposition and the high consistency between pre-purchase and post-purchase experience perception. 1. The Shift in the Cornerstone of Brand Momentum: From "Cognitive Gap" to "Exceeding Expectations in Experience" In the era of concept marketing, brand momentum was often achieved by creating a "cognitive gap"—that is, through carefully designed advertising images and brand concepts, creating a psychological expectation before purchase that was higher than the actual value of the product. Consumers paid for this "psychological premium," and even if the actual experience was slightly lacking, it was still acceptable in the context of strong income growth expectations. However, in the era of value chain marketing, the cornerstone of brand momentum has shifted to "exceeding expectations in experience." Mature consumers are immune to marketing rhetoric; they trust verifiable evidence and personal experience more. The strength of brand momentum depends on the positive difference between brand promise and actual experience. When consumers establish rational cognition before purchase through value chain information such as traceability, ingredient transparency, and process display, and then gain an experience that exceeds expectations during use, brand momentum is strengthened. 2. Upgrading the Driving Factors of Momentum: From "External Symbols" to "Intrinsic Value" From "logo size" to "value thickness": In the era of big logos, brand momentum was directly reflected in the exposure of visual symbols. In the era of small logos, momentum is more embedded in the actual efficacy of the product, the brand's value proposition, and cultural connotations. From "concept indoctrination" to "value support": Traditional marketing built momentum by instilling brand concepts through repetitive advertising. Today, brands need to make their value propositions concrete and visible through a verifiable value chain. For example, by making production processes public through "factory traceability and study tours," verifying product efficacy through authoritative test reports, and showing usage effects through real user cases. This ability to "make value visible and tangible" has become key to building brand momentum. From "emotional agitation" to "rational recognition and value resonance": In the past, brand momentum often relied on inflammatory emotional marketing (such as "the choice of successful people"). Facing pragmatic mature consumers, brand momentum needs to be built more on rational recognition and value resonance. This means that brands need to clearly communicate their ability to solve specific problems (functional value) and closely combine it with the healthy, sustainable, and authentic lifestyle they advocate (emotional/social value), forming a convincing unity. 3. Characteristics of High-Momentum Brands in the New Environment In the future market, brands that can build strong momentum typically have the following characteristics: Trust momentum: Through extreme transparency and value chains, they become "decision shortcuts" for consumers in an era of information overload. For example, Pangdonglai has built irreplaceable trust momentum by making its supply chain and cost structure public, giving its private-label products strong premium pricing power. Professional momentum: Demonstrating professional knowledge and rigorous attitude beyond peers in vertical fields. For example, in the health food field, if a brand can collaborate with authoritative scientific research institutions for product development and publish detailed scientific evidence, it can build strong professional momentum among health-conscious middle-aged and elderly groups. Value momentum: Whether the lifestyle and cultural values represented by the brand can resonate deeply with mature consumers. They no longer pursue flashy social status symbols but favor brands that align with their pragmatic, healthy, and quality-of-life-oriented intrinsic needs. Whether a brand can become a projection of their "ideal self" determines the level of its value momentum. 4. Construction Path: With "Value Creation" as the Cornerstone and "Cultural Values" as the Beacon The reconstruction of brand momentum is a systematic project: The bottom layer is a solid value chain endorsement: Ensure that product strength can support brand promises and make evidence accessible through various forms. The middle layer is consistent value experience perception: Ensure that from channel touchpoints to after-sales service, every consumer contact point conveys and reinforces brand value, achieving an experience loop. The top layer is clear value resonance: Form a brand philosophy that can trigger deep identification among the target customer group and use it to lead all product development and communication activities. Against the grand backdrop of demographic changes, the source of brand momentum is returning to the essence of business. It is no longer a numbers game of marketing budgets but the inevitable result of a deep fit between the brand's true value and consumers' rational and emotional needs. Only brands that can withstand evidence verification and provide experiences that exceed expectations can build lasting and strong brand momentum in the hearts of 657 million mature consumers. [Moving Toward the C-End] The 11th China FMCG Conference Date: March 16-18, 2026 Location: Chengdu, China