Click 'Read Original' for details Our most urgent topic remains: growth is king In 2021, no one in the FMCG industry—whether brand owners or distributors—feels at ease. The new normal of the pandemic is the new environment; community group buying and livestream e-commerce are new channels. Various low-alcohol drinks, niche beverages, and quirky condiments are new consumer brands, but behind the newness lies chaos. Mr. Liu from Hebei is an excellent distributor who has represented a leading dairy brand for 20 years. He told us that 2021 is the year he understands the least. His basic business remains around 300 million yuan, but almost all channels are declining to varying degrees. Mr. Liu's company still has profits, but seeing peers' businesses plummet, and even some distributors starting to go bankrupt and liquidate, he has fallen into great anxiety. "My team is quite excellent; I think no one understands the local business better than I do, but I am still very fearful," he said. "Almost all our advantageous channels are declining, not just mine, but the total volume of these channels is falling." "I don't know where to find growth anymore. In over 20 years, I've never encountered such a situation. Can you blame me for being afraid?" Mr. Liu concluded. Indeed, where has the sales growth gone? For most distributors, the brand belongs to the manufacturer; business is business, and business must grow and make money. Growth changes destiny; growth cures all ills. When growth ends, the crisis for distributors begins. The channels Mr. Liu refers to are all traditional offline channels, such as offline KA, supermarkets, mom-and-pop stores, and even wholesale, all declining. New Distribution's research finds that although traditional offline channels still account for the vast majority of sales share in FMCG, it is undeniable that many new channels from online and online-offline combinations are relentlessly eroding the share of the offline giant. Where have the disappearing increments gone? Who has taken the sales? Mainly two emerging channels: community group buying and livestream e-commerce. The former uses group leaders to penetrate communities infinitely, intercepting consumers at home and in WeChat mini-programs; the latter uses traffic platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou, allowing streamers to intercept consumers on their phones. Community group buying is lethal to daily-use FMCG, while livestream e-commerce first hits apparel, beauty, and small goods, then FMCG. 1) First, community group buying The anticipated 2021 community group buying war ended hastily under state control. After the cash-burning war was halted, internet giants that had invaded community group buying suffered huge losses and poor data growth; after a few months, they began to retreat. New Distribution research data shows that the second half of last year was the peak of regional community group buying closures and transformations, but in the first three quarters of this year, giants came and went in defeat, leaving only Meituan Select and Duoduo Maicai as survivors. In the first half of this year, many regional community group buying platforms that survived last winter with strong operations and capabilities saw growth again. Community group buying had already been proven a viable and profitable business model before the giants invaded. Although the giants have failed, the overall sales scale of community group buying is still expanding. Relevant data shows that in 2021, the industry will still reach 500 billion yuan, with 80% being FMCG. Isn't that a big impact? We predict that after the chaotic battle of a thousand groups, community group buying will enter a relatively healthy development pace. The remaining giants will re-examine their strategies, and regional platforms will focus more on their advantages and leverage their operational characteristics. All players in community group buying are beginning to realize that without the support of the FMCG industry chain, no one can win. It can be boldly predicted that after abandoning the crude traffic model, community group buying will gradually move closer to the industry chain with a more rational and pragmatic attitude. A batch of platforms with good foundations will thrive. 2) Now, livestream e-commerce If in previous years livestream e-commerce was more about viewing than selling—much thunder, little rain—then several landmark events in 2021 show that livestreaming will become an important sales channel in the future. The two main players in livestream e-commerce are Douyin and Kuaishou. As for Taobao Live, it still operates within shopping traffic and cannot break out, so we won't discuss it. Douyin's parent company established Douyin E-commerce last year. At the first Douyin E-commerce conference in the first half of this year, Douyin clearly proposed the concept of "interest e-commerce." The traditional purchasing logic is to have a need first, then go to offline stores or e-commerce platforms to choose, possibly buying a bit more along the way. Douyin's interest e-commerce logic is completely different. Because the system understands your habits and preferences, as you scroll through short videos, a livestream jumps into your view. You suddenly feel a desire to buy and place an order. Kuaishou E-commerce is also not simple. Based on its "laotie" (old iron) culture, it proposes building "trust e-commerce." Its logic is that Kuaishou streamers and fans have a laotie relationship: if fans trust you, you must be worthy of that trust, and you recommend what they buy. This laotie culture is quite popular on Kuaishou, and fans often develop a habit of buying with their eyes closed. Both Douyin E-commerce and Kuaishou E-commerce have massive user bases of over 500 million, and we ourselves are inevitably users of Douyin or Kuaishou. Their livestream e-commerce businesses will undoubtedly soon exceed 1 trillion yuan each. In this 2 trillion yuan, at least 50% is FMCG. Isn't that a big impact on traditional sales? We can foresee that up to 3 trillion yuan in growth is in community group buying and livestream e-commerce channels. How can we seize this growth? Match with 100,000 Group Leaders and 1,000+ Streamers at the China FMCG Conference As the most professional and influential channel media in the FMCG field, New Distribution has always been committed to driving channel reform and empowering channel upgrades. From September 23 to 25, at the 4th China FMCG Conference hosted by New Distribution, in addition to bringing attendees insights and sharing from 93 brand founders and executives, including Snow Beer, COFCO, Lee Kum Kee, Jiangxiaobai, and Junlebao, the conference also offers two huge bonus benefits. Bonus 1: At the conference, New Distribution will invite founders and procurement heads from over 60 excellent community group buying platforms from across the country to gather at the event, and arrange for participants to connect with all emerging channels at once. These specially invited 60+ community group buying platforms each have an average of over 2,000 group leaders, and they have survived the harshest winter together, with extremely strong loyalty and combat effectiveness. These 60+ platforms, along with their 100,000 group leaders, are eager to find brands and products that match their resources at this largest national FMCG industry exchange platform. Bonus 2: The conference will hold a closed-door Douyin e-commerce matchmaking session and a matchmaking with Kuaishou's largest service provider. How to do Douyin e-commerce? How to enter Douyin? How to learn and understand the operating rules of Douyin livestream e-commerce? On this virgin land of livestream e-commerce, the huge first-mover dividend should not be missed by FMCG brands and distributors. At the same time, the conference invites Kuaishou's largest streamer service agency to the event for direct matchmaking. The resources of over 1,000 top streamers on the Kuaishou platform can be directly connected with professional service agencies at the conference. (Scenes from previous conferences) We certainly understand and support the view that brand is the most important core of business operations, and operational capability, cost control, and team building are also top priorities. But we also want to tell all brand owners and distributors: sales are the foundation of everything; with sales, there is brand, status, team, and future. Therefore, when the opportunity to connect with 100,000 group leaders and 1,000+ streamers is right in front of you, forget other topics for now and seize this opportunity! Remember, growth always changes destiny; there is no other way! Connect with 100,000 group leaders and 1,000+ streamers at once. On September 23, see you in Shanghai! Are you "watching" me?