AUTHOR ARCHIVE
Articles by 刘春雄
Browse 419 New Distribution articles by 刘春雄.
Published articles
419 articles · Page 3 of 18
Is There Still Hope for Distributors' Declining Business?
Historical experience proves that truth is often unwelcome. Flattering words are comfortable, but honest advice grates on the ears. I once said I was unwilling to discuss distributor topics further because they are all 'harsh words,' but after being invited, I still have to say a few things. Don't assume that because the overall environment is bad, everyone is struggling. In fact, a bad environment is precisely the beginning of divergence: the good get better, the bad get worse. First, a word that delights the few: truly great distributors are being nurtured. In the FMCG industry, there are few distributors with tens of billions in revenue, but in the future, there will certainly be trillion-yuan distributors...
刘春雄Coca-Cola is the Originator of Scene Marketing
Coca-Cola's success is attributed to its scene-based marketing, as exemplified by the OBPPC theory and the 'popcorn and Coke' phenomenon in cinemas. The article argues that scene marketing, which focuses on occasion-based solutions, is more effective than simple user orientation.
刘春雄Winning Amid the Collapse and Breakdown of the Old Channel Order
Anxious or excited? The current state of the FMCG industry is both a trough and a transition period. After each trough and transition, new forces grow rapidly and new leading enterprises emerge. The key is whether you are a victim or a beneficiary of the transition. Market share from losers shifts to winners, a process historically called industry consolidation—this is the law of cycles and transitions.
刘春雄Deep Distribution Enters a Monopoly Mode of Overstocking, a Death Spiral in a Shrinking Market
Deep distribution was highly effective as a distribution tool until Q3 2024, but its very effectiveness has become harmful in an era of shrinking demand. It has led to overstocking at the terminal despite poor sell-through, causing massive near-expiry inventory and channel price collapse, transforming from a positive cycle into a death spiral.
刘春雄New Marketing Is Scene Marketing
From new marketing to scene marketing, this article argues that new marketing is essentially scene marketing, providing a new analytical framework and paradigm that goes beyond traditional user-oriented marketing.
刘春雄The Darkest Hour of Deep Distribution
Sales are declining, and I accept it. In the past, the response was to rescue sales by any means, even at any cost. Recently, a phenomenon has emerged: sales decline, and I accept it. No more rescue! It's not just small manufacturers, but giants too. More and more industry giants think this way. Now, it's discovered that not rescuing is not a big deal! However, this is the darkest hour of deep distribution, starting from the third quarter of 2024. Many leading companies agree that sales decline is normal and treat it with equanimity...
刘春雄In the Era of Interest E-Commerce, Are Brands Still Important?
Liu Chunxiong discusses whether brands remain important in the era of interest e-commerce, prompted by a question from expert Gong Fanggang. He argues that while newbie dividends can create rapid success, sustainable business requires converting these into stable assets like brands and offline channels, as interest is fleeting and platforms do not provide permanent support.
刘春雄Looking at the Present from the Future: The Upper, Middle, and Lower Strategies for Distributors
In times of shrinking volume, distributors face a critical choice. The upper strategy is to build a B2b platform and seize a dominant position; the middle strategy is to become a professional promoter for major brands; the lower strategy is to retreat in an orderly manner, preserving gains.
刘春雄From Super Slogan to Super Symbol
Liu Chunxiong argues that the focus of brand creativity has shifted from super slogans (represented by Ye Maozhong) to super symbols or logos (represented by Hua & Hua), reflecting changes in marketing media environments. He explains the transition from F2C centralized communication to B2C distributed communication via channels, and predicts a future shift to C2C IP-based communication.
刘春雄The Weakening or Disappearance of Terminal Customer Relations: A Landmark Shift from Small-Scale to Large-Scale Distributors
The 'death of shopping guides' and 'death of brand-focused displays' that I once predicted are now becoming reality. This article predicts that the 'weakening or disappearance of customer relations' is also underway. Customer relations, once a powerful force in distribution channels, are now weakening or disappearing in places like Pangdonglai and its reformed supermarkets, leisure retail chains, and B2b platforms. The deep distribution system was the scene where customer relations thrived; with platformization and supply chain revolution, customer relations need to be re-evaluated. The change in channel customer relations has profound implications, marking the end of 20-plus years of small-scale distributors and the arrival of an era of large-scale distributors.
刘春雄Giants Must Fight on Two Fronts; Small and Medium Manufacturers Should Switch Battlefields ASAP
Recent data for the first half of the year is as expected—poor. While 66% of listed FMCG companies saw performance declines, 34% grew. The key question is: who grew against the trend and what did they do right? The article argues that the apparent downturn masks the formation of industry endgames, where concentration increases and only a few players survive. Giants must fight on two fronts—competing fiercely for volume while upgrading product structures—while small and medium players should pivot to new battlefields like niche and segmented markets.
刘春雄Distributors: Farewell to Small-Scale, Embrace the Era of Major Players
On August 22, New Distribution released the '2023-2024 China FMCG Distributor Business Condition Survey Report' at its third distributor conference. The overall data shows that 46% of distributors failed to meet their sales targets for their top brand, while 55% met them. This report indicates a trend towards larger distributors and the rise of B2b platforms.
刘春雄Chinese Supermarkets Learn from Pangdonglai: What About Top Brands?
Liu Chunxiong says Pangdonglai has the greatest impact on two types of enterprises: supermarkets and brand owners. By helping Bubugao and Yonghui, Pangdonglai removed 80% of SKUs and launched its own supply chain, challenging top brands. Supermarkets are shifting from being outlets for top brands to being outlets for private labels, and Pangdonglai itself is transforming from a retailer into a brand owner.
刘春雄Shrinking Volume, Clearing Out, and the Rule of Three and Four
Liu Chunxiong has been saying that the macro environment is poor, with shrinking volumes across industries and widespread anxiety over involution. The outcome of involution is the Rule of Three and Four: shrinking volume inevitably leads to clearing out, where companies die in batches, and the endgame is the Rule of Three and Four, leaving only a few players. The Rule of Three and Four states that in a stable market, there are no more than three influential competitors, and the largest market share is no more than four times the smallest. Brand owners in various industries have long conformed to the oligopolistic state of the Rule of Three and Four, driven by the channel revolution of deep distribution. Distributors and retailers will next conform to the Rule of Three and Four, driven by the supply chain revolution.
刘春雄Distributors: How to Grow Profits in an Era of Shrinking Volume?
Distributors face the challenge of growing profits when volume is shrinking. The article argues that profit issues are a shared problem between manufacturers and distributors, requiring joint design and management. It introduces three profit models—scale profit, long-tail profit, and structure profit—and emphasizes the need for strategic planning and early layout.
刘春雄New Mass Products: The Engine of Industry Growth
This article focuses on the concept of 'new mass products' (新大众), which are upgraded versions of traditional mass products that meet evolving consumer needs. It argues that the emergence of new mass products is crucial for industry growth, as they open up the industry ceiling and provide a path forward amid market contraction.
刘春雄Internal Competition and Upgrading: Fighting on Two Fronts
Shrinking volume is a reality that cannot be denied. Since 2013, the FMCG industry has experienced over a decade of volume decline. In 2023, almost all major FMCG categories, except beverages, have fallen into contraction. The key is to recognize that the era of shrinking volume is irreversible, and the only path to growth lies in product structure upgrades, particularly through new mainstream price-band blockbusters.
刘春雄Distributors: Should They Hang On or Let Go?
This article, inspired by a social media post from marketing expert Wei Qing, explores the dilemma facing many distributors: whether to continue in a shrinking market. It argues that the traditional trading model is outdated due to the supply chain revolution and the rise of B2B platforms, and suggests two viable paths forward: transforming into B2B platform operators or focusing on brand promotion. The article advises that if neither is possible, an orderly exit may be the best option.
刘春雄China's Leading FMCG Companies Haven't Launched a Game-Changing Blockbuster Product in a Long Time
The problem lies in shrinking volume, while the opportunity lies in gear-shifting blockbuster products. Blockbuster products cure all ills. Use gear-shifting blockbusters to open up the industry ceiling. FMCG manufacturers are having a tough time recently, and even leading companies are no exception. Many regional managers have been replaced, even in batches. Many sales executives have also been replaced entirely. The reason is simple: growth has hit a major obstacle, and with the current situation, there is no immediate solution.
刘春雄Involution: Fight to Make Your Opponent Bleed Out First
Involution is inevitable and will inevitably lead to collective bleeding, but there is an antidote. Who will be the final victor in involution? Those who boldly participate but have the antidote.
刘春雄Why Are There More Major Distributors in South China, East China, and Southwest China, While Fewer in North China and Central-South China?
At a recent meeting, I sat next to a major distributor from South China with annual sales exceeding 10 billion yuan, which reminded me of the differences in major distributors across regions. In North China, a distributor with 100 million yuan in sales is already considered major, highlighting the significant disparity. The presence of major distributors varies greatly by region, influenced not only by individual capabilities but also by geographical factors. For instance, South China, East China, and Southwest China have more major distributors, while North China and Central-South China have relatively fewer, with notable differences in the ceiling of distributor scale.
刘春雄Is Warehousing and Distribution the Lifeline of Distributors, or Will It Be Their Downfall?
At the 2018 'Opening Class', when I mentioned that warehousing and distribution functions would be separated from distributors and outsourced to third parties, a distributor in the audience asked a soul-searching question: Without warehousing and distribution, is a distributor still a distributor? Before that, warehousing and distribution were indeed the lifeline of distributors. In 2012, Midea Group underwent digital transformation, with its subsidiary Annto Logistics implementing 'One Inventory' and integrated delivery and installation. Not only did distributors not touch the goods, but retailers also did not. 'One Inventory' greatly reduced the number of loading and unloading times from factory to user, from 6 times to 2-3 times.
刘春雄What Are the Highlights of Hard Discount in 2024?
From March 14 to 16, the 9th China FMCG Innovation Conference, the 2nd China FMCG Hard Discount Conference, and the 2nd China FMCG Distributor Conference were held in Chengdu under the theme 'Supply Chain Revolution.' Liu Chunxiong, a proponent of new marketing and director of the Marketing Digitalization Research Institute, delivered a keynote speech titled 'Supply Chain Revolution, New Brand Landscape' to over 2,000 manufacturer and FMCG representatives. This article highlights key points from his speech, focusing on the current state and future of hard discount, the differences between soft and hard discount, the role of white-label products, and the need for a new path beyond single-category snacks.
刘春雄What Is the Biggest Variable Affecting Marketing?
The biggest variable affecting marketing is media. Understanding media is crucial for marketers, especially those in brand communication. The anxiety marketers face today stems from the uncertainty of new media, but by returning to first principles, they can find certainty in channel terminals (b-end), which serve as both communication and transaction points. This article explores how bC integration and super symbols provide deterministic anchors for marketing in the digital age.
刘春雄