Liu Chunxiong: In the era of interest e-commerce, are brands still important? This is a proposition recently raised by beer new marketing expert and scenario marketing expert Gong Fanggang on his Moments. In recent years, Mr. Gong has gained attention for coaching Ublau and Venus Chinese Craft Beer (Venus Tea Beer), and has greatly influenced my understanding of communication systems by proposing the establishment of scenario departments and C2C communication. In fact, similar questions have been raised before. In the traffic era, are brands and offline channels still important? In the IP era, are brands still important? The answer is not that simple!
The Ghost of Newbie Dividend
Newbie dividend is a term I have been using frequently recently because it helps understand the confusion many people are experiencing. Newbie dividends exist in many fields, such as card games in daily life, stock trading and e-commerce in business, and more recently Douyin. It can even be expanded to say that as long as something is addictive or leads to self-destruction, there is always the ghost of newbie dividend. This is a ghost in sociology and business. It seems to exist, seems unreasonable, but some believe in it, and it forms a positive feedback loop. The value of newbie dividend lies in becoming addicted after tasting it, in believing it is your own ability, and even despising others and the orthodox.
Indeed, those who have tasted traffic dividends once despised traditional marketing. When they are no longer newbies, they find it is too late. Without effort or professionalism, they tasted the dividend; after working hard, they are worse off than newbies. This reversal is interesting. In business, such as internet platforms, I firmly believe that newbie dividend is a platform design aimed at attracting more new participants. Conversely, if there is a newbie dividend, there is no dividend for veterans. In life and non-platform fields, I believe newbie dividend is related to public attention. New things always attract more attention, while imitation and replication do not.
In the traffic era, the newbie dividend was exemplified by Taobao brands. That was the result of traffic support. Ask, apart from a few like Three Squirrels, where are the former Taobao brands today? In the IP era, a batch of explosive products emerged, which were centralized cases created through decentralization, the result of attention aggregation. But how many IPs truly last long? How many new FMCG brands that relied on new media combinations are still alive?
Interest e-commerce is today's newbie dividend. Not seizing the dividend is foolish, but only seizing the dividend is also foolish. As long as there is a newbie dividend, you must consider what to do when you are no longer a newbie.
Short-lived Lives Are Inferior Lives
Biologists say that short-lived lives are inferior lives. This statement has deeply influenced me! Even before the internet era, I pondered this topic. Newbie dividend is related to the identity of being a newbie, but a newbie cannot remain a newbie forever. Newbie dividend is related to timing. In business, newbie dividends often occur in the early stages of new fields, and may more likely be the result of platform design. Regardless of the cause, it certainly creates a story of "quick success." "Quick success" changes people's psychology.
Change one: interpreting short-term newbie dividend as one's own ability. Change two: despising others, tradition, and orthodoxy. Change three: doubling down on new fields, thinking that will amplify the newbie dividend.
Those who have enjoyed traffic dividends, platform dividends, IP dividends, or interest e-commerce dividends—these quick successes, whether individuals or companies, are inferior lives, unless there is a genetic mutation. It must be admitted that businesses relying on the internet generally have a flash-in-the-pan characteristic. This judgment is bound to offend many. I am not afraid; time will be the test. Where are the former Taobao brands? Where are the former big influencers? Where are the former big IPs? The internet is constant, but players come and go.
In the IP era, I also doubted whether brands still had value. Until I witnessed a case where an IP-based product quickly approached 2 billion, and just as the company prepared for 5 billion, it entered an irreversible decline. When I discussed this with management expert Shi Wei, his one sentence resonated with me: IP is fashionable, but brand is a lighthouse. The relationship between IP and brand is like fashion and classics. For entrepreneurs, newbie dividend is certainly needed. However, if the newbie dividend cannot be quickly transformed into assets that generate sustained influence and stability, then the newbie dividend creates a short-lived life. When platforms give newbies traffic, can the traffic dividend be transferred to channels? Because enterprises are forces for stability, while traffic is not. When an IP succeeds, can IP branding be initiated to turn a fashionable IP into a classic brand? Business management must quickly transform opportunity-based success into capability-based success. In the past, there was much criticism of opportunism. After entering the internet society, there are many new opportunities, and many are moving from one opportunity battlefield to another. This path has an end.
Revolution and Symbiosis
Since entering the internet society, the word "revolution" is often seen, such as the internet revolution. I have stated in many articles that business is symbiosis, not revolution. The grocery store is the earliest retail business; after the industrial revolution and information revolution, grocery stores still exist. Brand is the earliest communication medium (C2C communication), having gone through the advertising era (F2C communication), super symbols (B2C communication), platform traffic (P2C communication), and now returning to UGC (self-media C2C communication). History has gone through a cycle, the negation of negation. Early word-of-mouth was UGC. Now word-of-mouth still exists, advertising still exists, super symbols still exist, and platforms still exist. Communication is the symbiosis of media.
The dividend generated in a new field can potentially be transferred to other media with more sustained influence. Alibaba enjoyed the newbie dividend; when Pinduoduo became a newbie, when Douyin became a newbie, Alibaba's difficulties arose. Interest e-commerce is sharp, but how long can interest last in the internet era? Why should the public's interest stay with you? The hardest insight in the internet era is interpreting a viral phenomenon as a sustained user need. I have witnessed many reflections after a viral rise and fall, but reflections after the fall are just reflections; few people pay attention anymore.
Brand is a Stable Cognitive Symbol
Growing up is not difficult; maturing is hard. Explosion is easy; stability is hard.
Internet cognitive models often create miracles, but miracles also often disappear.
Teacher Jin Huanmin even compared it to a crab: it dies as soon as it turns red. Internet communication is C2C, especially with platform support, where decentralized communication creates centralized miracles.
However, interest is constantly changing, and platforms will not support forever. Therefore, overnight success must quickly return to stability and increase B2C communication. A friend once achieved the top position in a single category on a platform, but later gave up. Because without the newbie dividend, continuous traffic investment was unaffordable. Actually, I hinted at this, but who listens during the dividend period? Startups that want to rise quickly must seize the opportunity window and the newbie dividend. But for sustainable operation, they must enter a mature and stable business system. When a platform rises, start capturing offline channels. Because offline channels have stable traffic. The internet is indeed good for breaking through, but tradition has more stable characteristics. Offline channels and brands are relatively stable. When an IP becomes popular, start paying attention to brand logic. Because brand is sustained public attention. Since entering the internet era, most traditional brands have not seized the era's dividends; they are usually the last followers of internet tactics, but they are also the most stable operators. Those who enjoyed the newbie dividend have disappeared, while they are still playing.
The internet can create miracles, but it is difficult to sustain them. The sharpness of internet communication is easy to break through, but marketing defense requires tradition. In the era of interest e-commerce, are brands important? Do we still need an answer?