-01- The impact of the pneumonia epidemic on business mainly focuses on two directions: First, how businesses can "self-rescue" to minimize losses. This is a human instinct when facing danger. Second, how the epidemic accelerates the maturation of new business models. Just as Alibaba rose after SARS, new business models will surely emerge. This is about maximizing benefits. "Self-rescue" solves immediate problems, while fostering new business models concerns the future. The two directions can even merge: completing "self-rescue" by fostering new business models. If the first problem is not solved well, one may "not survive"; if the second is ignored, one may "regret" later. The first problem is about defusing danger, the second about seizing opportunities. Together, they are called crisis. -02- While catering is sluggish, the "home delivery" business has unexpectedly become a hotspot. Take Hema for example: its online-to-home delivery business is doing well, and it is recruiting skilled workers for packaging, sorting, shelving, and catering on a large scale. For instance, Liancai.com in Zhengzhou, which originally did B2B, has started B2C business. Another example: Xibei has started doing delivery. The "home delivery" business of new retail has been lukewarm in the past, but this time it may be a "turning point". -03- The impact of the epidemic on business has a dividing line on the fifth day of the first lunar month. Before the fifth day, there was panic buying of disinfectants, vegetables, instant food, etc., as emergency measures. After the fifth day, people realized they were facing a new scenario never seen before: First, "self-isolation" lasted longer than expected, at least until February 9. The Spring Festival holiday was extended by at least 9 days compared to usual; Second, social activities during this Spring Festival decreased, but there is always consumption in family life, especially rigid consumption of daily necessities. This was not anticipated before the Spring Festival. For example, those who planned to travel for the holiday were stuck at home; those who planned to stay in their hometown for a few days and then return could not leave the village or enter the city. On one hand, "self-isolation" means minimizing visits to public places; on the other hand, household consumption of daily necessities is higher than usual. Thus, "home delivery" became one of the solutions. Some even "invented" the "contactless home delivery" business, although "contactless" does not mean absolute safety. The contradiction between "self-isolation" and "rigid household demand" makes "home delivery" the best solution. Currently, the "home delivery" business is limited to central cities and some well-known stores. First, these stores have strong supply chain capabilities to ensure continuous supply; Second, these stores have reliable disinfection measures, and users trust them; Third, compared to "village closures" in rural areas, cities only have relatively closed communities, so delivery can be made to the community (contactless home delivery); Fourth, according to marketing expert Fang Gang, household needs differ between urban and rural areas. Rural areas have a certain degree of "self-sufficiency", while urban areas may have no choice but to shop at supermarkets or use "home delivery". Due to fear of crowds, some choose home delivery. -04- What needs to be observed now is: will the home delivery business continue after the epidemic ends? Home delivery is a part of new retail, and Hema was already doing well earlier. So, it cannot be said that the epidemic gave birth to the home delivery business. However, the epidemic did make more enterprises participate in it. For example, there were already B2C vegetable platforms, but they generally did not do well. Liancai.com originally did B2B, but this time B2B encountered difficulties, and it found an outlet in B2C. What is the difference between this home delivery business and food delivery? Because food delivery is also a form of "home delivery". Food delivery is "platform + unit organization", while Hema and Xibei are centrally managed distributed organizations. Centralized management showed strong organizational mobilization during the epidemic and easily won user trust. Distributed organizations (stores) have strong community attributes. For home delivery, communities have advantages. During the epidemic, people stayed at home with long online time, high frequency of online communication and community interaction. Some users tried home delivery for the first time, some will form habits, and some will experience the benefits of home delivery under the influence of family members. I believe that after the epidemic, the home delivery business will definitely rise to a new level. As for whether it will become a landmark product like Alibaba after SARS, I think it is possible. New retail expert Bao Yuezhong predicted earlier that in the future, the "home delivery" business may surpass "in-store". I agree! Besides immediate consumption, planned consumption can also be the target of home delivery. Currently, it is only specific fields doing home delivery at specific times. The specific time is the epidemic, and the specific fields are more about rigid demand (such as vegetables). In fact, as long as the average order value reaches a certain scale, home delivery is feasible. Liancai.com's combination of vegetables had a good product mix this time. Rigid household demand first is vegetables, then daily necessities. Supermarkets reacted slowly this time, possibly because most supermarkets have not yet started new retail operations. Hema, Liancai.com, and Xibei were already practitioners of new retail and B2B, so they seized the first-mover advantage. -05- Many people always want more holidays, but never have so many people wanted to go to work now. Some say they are going crazy staying at home! So, they first connect online to drink, then play cards online. After a few days, it is still very boring. The view of well-known new media person Nalan Zuotian is penetrating: This time, after getting tired of being online, offline scenes will become more precious. My response to this is: Online transactions will rise (as with home delivery), and offline scenes will become more precious. This epidemic has hit offline scenes the hardest, such as dining, travel, movies, entertainment, visiting relatives and friends, etc. Many industries are now trying every means to "self-rescue". How to "self-rescue"? If everyone uses price cuts and discounts, it will lead to "mutual run" after the epidemic, with greater losses. I believe that offline scenes will usher in a round of "revenge rebound" after the epidemic, because the "preciousness" of offline scenes and the "boredom" of online scenes have been proven this time. I believe that after the epidemic, there will be a rebound in both offline and online scenes. Seizing the public's nostalgia for offline scenes during the epidemic may find a clue for "self-rescue". Source: Teacher Liu's New Marketing (ID: liuchunxiong1964)