Source丨品饮汇观察ID 丨DrinksSHOWAuthor丨Silas "Build foundations in the off-season, boost sales in the peak season." As the Chinese beverage market enters its sales off-season and gradually moves into the more competitive new cycle of 2026, "building foundations" has become the core priority for beverage practitioners. Under the industry consensus of "building foundations," the question of "how to do it" becomes a challenge. After all, the demographics, scenarios, purchasing power, preferences, and channels of Chinese beverage consumption have undergone profound changes. This explains why, even in the information age's "oversupply" pattern of stock competition, hundreds of thousands of practitioners still flock to the Sugar and Wine Fair—their core purposes are nothing more than: to see the direction, hear the voices, and seek trends. The industry often says "choice is greater than effort." Through in-depth observation of this year's Nanjing Autumn Sugar Fair (the 113th National Sugar and Wine Commodity Fair) and frontline market research, I have identified three major trend keywords that will dominate next year's beverage market: "affordable juice," "larger packaging," and "precise efficacy." This article will elaborate on these three trends to provide a reference for practitioners' "foundation building." Fruit flavors become standard at booths, NFC juice accelerates towards affordability If we were to find a "greatest common divisor" for the Chinese beverage market at the end of 2025, juice products would undoubtedly be it. I noticed that at this year's Autumn Sugar Fair, more than 80% of native beverage companies (including those in hotel exhibitions) exhibited their juice products to varying degrees. In addition, cross-industry entrants such as Tianshili and Yanjing Beer also launched fruit-flavored teas, juice sodas, and other fruit-flavored beverages, further increasing the "fruit content" of the Chinese beverage market. In terms of flavors, besides common orange juice, apple juice, and grape juice, the proportion of juice products made from regional specialty fruits such as sea buckthorn, guava, lychee, and oil plum is also increasing. However, multiple distributors reported that compared to the brief popularity of niche fruits, mass-market flavors like orange and apple juice have more stable sales performance and are evergreen. However, the biggest change in the juice track at the end of 2025 is not at the flavor level but at the positioning strategy level—shifting from quality upgrading to prioritizing value for money. Over the past two years, Chinese juice has undergone a rapid quality upgrade: from juice drinks to 100% juice, from concentrated-reduced (FC) juice to non-concentrated-reduced (NFC) juice, and even since 2024, high-pressure sterilization (HPP) juice has gradually become popular. Quality upgrading was once the main theme of the market, with brands like Arctic Ocean, Ruguo, and Weikexian successively launching HPP new products. But the priority of quality upgrading is decreasing. I found that more and more companies are shifting from single-line quality leaps to simultaneous quality and price advancement, with the most intuitive manifestation being the affordability of NFC juice. For a long time, driven by both cost and marketing, NFC juice has firmly held the position of "high-end representative" in the category, with prices generally 30%-50% higher than FC juice, and 300ml specifications often staying in the price range above 10 yuan, hindering its penetration into the broader mass market. ◎Image source: Xiaohongshu user @元气满满 At this year's Autumn Sugar Fair, NFC juice prices have shown a trend towards affordability. In addition to Yizhengyuan, which claims to be "the national sales champion of affordable NFC juice," I saw at least four other companies at the fair focusing on affordable NFC juice. Furthermore, the prices of NFC juice launched by other companies this year have also decreased compared to previous years, with reductions generally exceeding 20%. Distributor Mr. Li pointed out: "The popularization of NFC juice will significantly enhance its market competitiveness and promote its expansion into lower-tier markets beyond first- and second-tier high-spending consumers. By offering affordable high-quality juice, we can overturn consumers' inherent perceptions of traditional juice, do a good job in market cultivation, and the prospects for NFC juice will be limitless." Large packaging becomes standard, beverages move towards the '2L era' Continuing to delve into the affordability of NFC juice, there are only two ways to achieve it: direct price reduction or "increase quantity without increasing price"—that is, through larger bottles to effectively reduce prices. In fact, the trend towards larger bottles has been in full swing in the beverage industry over the past two years, especially in the tea category. For example, Nongfu Spring's Oriental Leaf, after the 900ml large bottle, launched a 1.5L bottle this year. Similarly, Genki Forest recently launched a 1.8L extra-large bottle of Ice Tea. In addition, brands such as Jinmailang, Wahaha, and Dongpeng Beverage have also increased their investment in large-packaged beverages. By the end of 2025, this trend is further spreading. I noticed that at this year's Autumn Sugar Fair, more categories have entered the large packaging track. In addition to Master Kong's Iced Black Tea (sweet tea) and Oriental Leaf (unsweetened tea), NFC juice and Chinese-style health drinks have also launched large-packaged products, and even functional beverages—the representative category of "concentrated essence"—have been drawn into it. Compared to the 2023 and 2024 Autumn Sugar Fairs, another phenomenon stands out: the large packaging specifications themselves are continuously "expanding," evolving from the previous 1L and 1.2L to this year's 1.5L and 1.8L specifications, moving from the "1L era" to the "2L era." However, at the consumer end, large bottled beverages are often more praised than purchased. According to distribution volume, in the vast majority of catering outlets and supermarkets across the country, small and medium-sized packaged beverages account for a much larger share. At a supermarket in Nanjing, at 5:30 PM, the shelves for large bottles were still full, while some small and medium-sized packaged products had sold out, and staff were busy restocking. Despite limited sales, many companies are still eager to adopt large packaging, with the core driving force being scenario penetration. Whether it's NFC juice or Chinese-style health drinks, with their portability, health, and social attributes, they have long focused on personal consumption scenarios in first- and second-tier cities. But as competitors flood in and growth peaks, expanding to sharing scenarios such as family dinners, friend gatherings, and camping has become inevitable. ◎Image source: Xiaohongshu user @一只废话姬🥕 Currently, the large bottle trend is mainly playing out among leading brands. This is not only a manifestation of the "economies of scale" in the supply chain but also an inevitable choice as categories mature and competition intensifies. Zhu Danpeng, a Chinese food industry analyst, believes that large packaging is a market penetration and pricing strategy adopted by enterprises in their mature stage, essentially an important means for leading companies to squeeze out small and medium players, build differentiated advantages, and provide high cost-performance products. This means that categories where large packaging prevails are accelerating towards an oligopolistic competition era. Focus on precise 'energy replenishment', the trend of functionalization is unstoppable Just as "fruit flavor" has become a basic element, "efficacy" is also one of the most common keywords in this year's beverage exhibition area. Take electrolyte beverages as an example: they help quickly replenish water and electrolytes after intense exercise, preventing dehydration and disorders. This category has rapidly occupied the C-position in convenience stores and gym refrigerators in first- and second-tier cities over the past two years, and during the Autumn Sugar Fair, it also became the hottest category in the functionalization trend. In addition to existing products from Genki Forest (Alien) and Dongpeng Beverage (Hydrate), about one-third of the exhibitors brought their electrolyte beverages, including cross-industry brands like Xianzhibao. This year, the "efficacy competition" is no longer limited to sports hydration. More precise segmented efficacies are emerging: products using oil plum, prebiotics, and kale as ingredients, targeting urban youth's "improving gut health"; Chinese-style health drinks adhering to the "medicine and food homology" concept and promoting "light wellness," such as Liuwei Dihuang Drink launched by Zhang Zhongjing Health; and even brands like "Sleeping Water" and "Sugar-Lowering Tea" targeting specific health needs such as "sleep" and "three highs." The trend of competing in segmented efficacies has also spread to the upstream R&D side. Compared to previous years, about one-third of the beverage R&D institutions (such as Jiangnan University and China Pharmaceutical University) at this year's Autumn Sugar Fair displayed their achievements in precise beverage efficacy at prominent booth positions, attracting many visitors to stop and consult. Consumer demand simultaneously confirms this trend. Data shows that in terms of tea beverage needs: 45% of consumers want immune support, 6% require B vitamins, 43% seek antioxidants, and 32% expect gut benefits. From R&D, production, to consumption, "functionalization" has become an irreversible torrent, and in the future, it is highly likely to become a basic element of Chinese beverages, just like "low sugar." After the Autumn Sugar Fair: trends become clearer, distributors become more cautious NFC juice entering the affordable range, leading brands using large packaging to expand sharing scenarios, and beverages accelerating from hydration and taste to precise energy replenishment—the underlying logic of these changes is the value regression of Chinese consumption. Although the Autumn Sugar Fair illuminated some directions of change, driven by the continuous segmentation of scenarios, needs, and channels, the Chinese market remains foggy and full of uncertainty. Exchanges with distributors and terminal operators after the Autumn Sugar Fair show that they generally adopt a cautious attitude towards new trends: they would rather do nothing or make few changes than bear the risk of "the more you do, the more mistakes you make." Taking "functionalization" as an example, distributor Mr. Yang highly agrees with it and selected a certain health functional beverage at the Autumn Sugar Fair, but ultimately only signed a "trial order" of 100,000 yuan. He frankly said: "The main reasons I dare not try easily are two: first, there is a lack of mature channel support, making rapid distribution difficult; second, the category needs to reach a certain sales scale to be profitable, and small and medium players like us find it hard to break the cost bottleneck." Terminal operator Mr. Wang from Chongqing is more conservative, directly saying "no" to new juices and functional beverages. In his view, compared to chasing trends, terminal operators value whether brand promises can be fulfilled. He shared a lesson: he once sold over a hundred boxes per month for a new brand with 1 billion in sales, yet still made no profit, because the brand's policies were changeable and promised fees were not honored. "Rather than taking risks with trend products, it's better to stick with mature products and earn some hard-earned money." In summary, the three major trends of "affordable juice," "larger packaging," and "precise efficacy" reflect the essential regression of beverage consumption: consumers want both functionality and affordability, both personal experience and sharing convenience, and they seek more practical value while being budget-conscious. However, although the path is clear, the road is rugged. When the lively trends land, they still need to answer the most realistic considerations of distributors: Is the product easy to distribute? Can money be made? Can promises be fulfilled? Only by answering these correctly can we truly "build foundations."