In golden October, as the annual beverage sales work draws to a close, the most important task besides sales performance is preparing the 2020 budget. Budgeting is both important and tedious: it is important because it will guide next year's sales, profits, staffing, market investment, and all other work streams; it is tedious because it must be watertight, requiring constant overturning and rebuilding, again and again. Having done budgeting for over a decade, I now share my insights. In short, budget work can be divided into the following five stages. Meditation Stage: Deep Self-Reflection on This Year's "People" and "Things" Meditation is the basis of the budget, derived from the details of this year's operations, and how to build on strengths and avoid weaknesses. Sales growth comes from continuous improvement; if this year's problems remain unsolved and mistakes unexamined, performance will only worsen. If the budget period is 30 days, meditation should take at least 10 days, focusing on the following aspects. 1. Personnel: This is the battle deployment map; without people, nothing gets done, and without excellent people, nothing great is achieved. Consider these questions: A. This year's staff turnover, especially key sales personnel; reasons for resignation; average tenure of the current team. B. The annual status of each sales group and its leader. C. Whether manpower allocation across regions is reasonable; whether the structure between strong and weak regions is sound; whether personnel are concentrated or dispersed. D. Managers at all levels should deeply reflect on their personnel management, reward/punishment systems, promotion/demotion policies, and offer criticism and self-criticism. E. Plan next year's training programs and timing, unwaveringly improving overall staff quality. F. Summarize two key indicators for all staff: attitude and skills. Managers should create individualized support plans, listing monthly support timings. G. Compensation plans: usually company-wide, but regions should implement survival of the fittest. H. Performance assessment and incentives: where assessment focuses, so does work; do monthly and quarterly assessments effectively motivate? Do they achieve expected goals? I. The working status of distributors and sub-distributors; whether they meet the necessary conditions for continued cooperation. 2. Things: The principle is to amplify and maintain excellence, ensure weaknesses do not carry into next year, and consider the marketing 4Ps and 4Cs from multiple dimensions. A. Are basic work foundations solid? This includes market basics and sales basics. B. Where did this year's sales come from? Distributor stocking? Sub-distributor stocking? Market sell-through? C. Inventory and shelf age: take stock of distributor, sub-distributor, and wholesaler inventories, and the average shelf age of products at retail; master the real product status, shelf age, inventory, and product flow. D. This year's sales contribution: which products drove sales? Analyze sales share by product, even down to category and SKU. E. Is the product structure optimal? Products are categorized as main sellers, profit products, cultivation products, volume products, brand products, channel-specific products, etc. Label your products and maintain this for a year. F. Are channels reasonable? Does each channel have corresponding products? Are they matched? What problems exist in channel development and maintenance? What is channel competitiveness? G. Competitor analysis: Was competitor information timely and accurate this year? Did you compete head-on or use flanking strategies based on brand strengths? H. Price analysis: Were this year's prices reasonable? Did they consider profits at all levels and your own interests? Do you have a competitive advantage? Is the price system regionally unified? Price determines profit, and profit determines enthusiasm for promoting products at all levels—so how is that enthusiasm? I. Were market expenses reasonable this year? Analyze down to each retail store and person: what is the ROI? Is the expense ratio controllable? Is there room for optimization? Are long-term and short-term investments balanced? Are expenses targeted? Are seasonal expense ratios and directions correct? How do market promotion activities align with sales rhythm? J. Were channel expenses reasonable this year? How did long-term and short-term promotions combine? Compared to competitors, are you a leader or follower? Did the intensity effectively hit competitors? Did it affect channel-level interests or the price system? What lessons were learned from each major promotion? K. How are terminal customers performing annually? What is the sales share of each customer? According to the 80/20 principle, how are the top 20% of customers by sales doing—growing or declining, and why? L. Is sales rhythm control reasonable? Are annual sales progress and forecasts aligned? How much of the monthly target is completed in the first ten days? Is it sell-through or month-end stocking? M. Is the combination of "air force" and "army" reasonable—i.e., media advertising support and distribution personnel coordination? N. Are after-sales service and emergency handling appropriate? Event marketing? Customer handling? Management of near-expiry and expired products? O. Reflect on marketing models or methods: the collision of traditional and new marketing; has internet sales thinking been introduced? How are new-generation sales modules like platform sales and community group buying implemented? Finalizing the Budget Outline: Determine next year's general direction; once decided through discussion, stick to it unwaveringly. 1. Product positioning: Define product attributes: sales contributor, profit contributor, brand contributor, etc. 2. Personnel positioning: Staffing, organizational structure, compensation systems, etc. 3. Market type structure positioning: Define strong and weak markets and operational methods. 4. Annual sales targets and monthly breakdown: Some product targets even broken down to ten-day periods. 5. Total market expense investment, direction, and timing. 6. Channel positioning: Prioritize primary and secondary channels. 7. Promotion positioning: Set promotion timing and intensity ranges. 8. Price system positioning: Set invoice prices. 9. Sales rhythm positioning:

  • When does the "water head" (initial push) start?
  • When does terminal stocking begin?
  • Define network maintenance and seasonal theme work. 10. Customer tier positioning: Based on this year's actual sales, rank customers by comprehensive sales volume, and allocate investment and visits by tier. First Draft Budget: The first draft should lock in 80% of the content; it is the top priority, with subsequent drafts for gap-filling The budget's core cannot be explained in a few words; here I emphasize market investment principles and combined investment in key regions: Including mature prefecture-level terminal markets with online, offline, and channel investment. Differences arise only in total investment and media selection due to market size and development stage. 1. Strategic Mature Type: Launch terminal market offline and channel investment Full-channel coverage, directly serving terminals in core areas; in remote areas, use terminal service providers and contracted secondary wholesalers to serve terminals. Select influential stores for display and beautification, using "terminal media" to drive sales growth and brand enhancement. For brand communication, besides online support, continue the "PR localization" strategy, focusing on large consumer events for new product launches, using roadshows, interactive activities, and free samples to engage consumers, enhance awareness of new categories, tap potential consumers, and ultimately boost sales. Small activities focus on supporting existing product promotions to consolidate the current consumer base. 2. Opportunity Mature Type: Includes county-level mature terminal markets and county-level mature terminal-channel combined markets These are markets with a certain sales scale, receiving offline and sales investment. Focus on terminal service, improving sales through better service and customer relationships. Channels focus on multi-product store entry, using display and beautified stores with "high-end" image displays to stimulate purchases. High-energy outlets and premium special-channel display stores may receive partial expense support. Brand communication, besides online support, is also a key market for "PR localization" activities; high-frequency small-scale display and sales events for continuous exposure are the main brand-building strategy. 3. Strategic Potential Type: Includes county-level fast terminal markets, county-level mature channel markets, county-level fast channel markets, and county-level fast terminal-channel combined markets These markets already have a certain sales scale or have significant development potential and can sustain growth; they are the main markets for future sales growth. They are also key regions for display stores and ground promotion activities. 4. Opportunity Potential Type: Online coverage, channel investment. Markets of average scale, driving sales through service Key support for display stores; brand building combines large events for momentum with continuous small activities. 5. Opportunity Cultivation Type: Markets with development potential but not yet broken through Market development is "uneven," focusing on channel construction. Based on distributors' channel control, invest moderately, select high-energy channels and influential terminal stores for display and beautification, using points to drive areas, encouraging other terminals to stock, improving product distribution to boost sales. Brand building mainly uses air advertising, online media, and other online methods to raise brand awareness; consumer ground activities are selectively supported, gradually enhancing brand awareness, tapping potential markets, and cultivating them early. Budget Defense Stage 1. After drafting the budget, first discuss it internally. Participants include regional administrative clerks, regional market planners, regional sales supervisors, key regional sales staff, and area managers; question and revise from bottom up repeatedly. 2. External scrutiny: Arrange people outside the team to raise doubts. Similar to excellent distributors, wholesalers, and even terminal customers; don't fear problems—if they arise now, just fix them; problems during operations can cause chaos. Final Budget and Secondary Follow-up Measures
  1. Once the budget is set, stick to it unwaveringly; do not waver or look around.
  2. A common and ridiculous thing: some managers treat the budget as a one-off exercise, ending when it's done, with actual operations disconnected from the budget; others strictly follow the budget, ignoring market changes and hitting a wall. Therefore, set up secondary follow-up measures to ensure the general direction remains steady, and process correction measures to smoothly transition through market surprises. Summary The annual budget is a rite of passage for every regional manager; it includes reflection on past work, outlook and planning for the coming year, and is a process of repeatedly breaking and reshaping oneself. Teams must especially confront their own mistakes and accept criticism from all sides; never rush to complete the company's budget assessment. Like the national five-year plan, the budget helps us create dreams, persist in dreams, and fulfill dreams. Finally, I wish everyone a smooth budget process and a market that rises like sesame flowers blooming higher each year! If you wish to communicate with the author Tips will be paid 400-2000 yuan upon adoptionChina FMCG + Internet Professional New Media****Dedicated to FMCG manufacturer transformation and channel digital solutions