Source | Zhengdian Consumption Domestic consumption upgrading has accelerated the packaged drinking water market into an era of stock competition characterized by 'one rising, another falling.' However, under high-pressure competition, higher demands are placed on companies' market execution. As the 'water war' continues, the market landscape is quietly shifting. According to a research report by Zhongtai Securities, as of September 2025, Nongfu Spring leads the industry with a 33% market share, Wahaha ranks second with a 2% year-on-year increase, while C'estbon's share dropped 3%. Meanwhile, regional brands like Quanyangquan and 5100 have achieved rapid growth in their key regions thanks to solid distributor relationships, local cultural ties, and shorter transportation radii. The Category Growth Logic Behind the 'Price War' Starting in April 2024, when Nongfu Spring launched its green-bottle purified water at 9.9 yuan per 12-bottle case, the entire packaged drinking water market (excluding sizes above 8L) entered a new round of price competition. As Wahaha and C'estbon successively joined the fray, '1-yuan water' became the mainstream and has persisted to this day. Moreover, this battle also pulled down mineral water that had long maintained a retail price of 3 yuan per bottle; brands like Jingtian Baishuishan and Jinmailang Jinkuang have all moved their prices down to the 2-yuan price band. Despite intense price competition, perhaps because the value-for-money has indeed been highlighted, the overall market size of domestic packaged drinking water has further expanded. According to Zhongtai Securities' research report, the market size of China's packaged water (excluding large packages above 8L) is expected to reach 224.231 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3%. The market is showing multi-dimensional value competition, with clear divergence among industry leaders. Behind this, besides price declines, the main driver is changes in channel dynamics. The brokerage noted in its report that from January to July, among offline channels for drinking water, the GMV of special channels grew 13.8% year-on-year, with growth stabilizing around 15% from May to July; traditional channels saw GMV growth of 12.0%, while modern channels saw a 14.2% decline. At the enterprise level, in the first half of 2025, Nongfu Spring's drinking water business returned to growth with revenue of 9.443 billion yuan, up 10.7% year-on-year, but still below the 10.442 billion yuan of the same period in 2023. China Resources Beverage's packaged drinking water products revenue was 5.251 billion yuan in the same period, down 23.1% year-on-year. Among these, small-format bottled water (single bottle capacity not exceeding 1 liter), which contributes the most to drinking water revenue, saw revenue of 3.194 billion yuan, down 26.2% year-on-year. Wahaha, as a non-listed company, achieved revenue growth of 500 million yuan in 2025. Clearly, its purified water, one of the 'three carriages,' should be the biggest engine for its growth. According to data from Zhiyan Consulting, in the third quarter of 2025, among packaged water brands in offline retail channels, Nongfu Spring led with a 33.47% market share, Wahaha and C'estbon ranked second and third with 21.08% and 9.23% respectively, while the fourth and fifth places both came from two brands under the same company: Baishuishan and Jingtian, with market shares of 5.82% and 1.79% respectively. Market Strategies Behind the 'Three Kingdoms' Battle After last year's public opinion crisis, Nongfu Spring launched its green-bottle purified water. As the helm, Zhong Shanshan even issued a 'death order' to the packaged water department: 'If we cannot win back market share with red-bottle natural water and green-bottle purified water, the entire packaged water department will be dismissed.' With exceptional execution, Nongfu Spring's packaged water department did not disappoint Zhong. The green-bottle purified water captured about 10% of the purified water category market share just four months after launch. Since then, Nongfu Spring has been continuously attacking on the terminal and channel fronts, gradually 'winning back' lost market share. Details reveal the truth. In many community convenience stores, Nongfu Spring has piled products high at the storefront, investing in various promotional materials and running promotions. For example, besides the 9.9-yuan green-bottle purified water, even large packages (12.9L) are offered with a 'buy six get one free' promotion, leaving no opportunity for competitors. Meanwhile, Wahaha, amid its internal turmoil, has adopted a more 'iron-fisted' distributor policy to strengthen its 'thirst' for growth. For instance, Wahaha not only cut distributors with annual sales below 3 million yuan this year but also raised the 'entry qualification' for attending this year's distributor conference from 10 million to 15 million yuan. Wahaha's measures go far beyond that. On one hand, it has dispatched 'shelf-stockers' to strengthen terminal control; on the other hand, 'distributors with negative growth for two consecutive months will still have their accounts closed if performance targets are not met.' According to a report by Caijing Tiandi WEEKLY, a distributor with sales of 21 million yuan last year had only completed 15 million by October this year but was still 'eliminated' by Wahaha. Moreover, Wahaha closely monitors distributors' growth rates and issues 'Communication Warning Letters' to those who fail to meet targets, requiring them to rectify promptly or face cancellation of distribution rights and termination of agreements. Under such high pressure, distributors have to work hard to sell goods, and bottled water, being the fastest-moving category, naturally becomes the primary target. Nongfu Spring's green-bottle purified water is like a 'nail' driven into C'estbon's 'vital point,' forcing C'estbon to adopt a 'price-for-volume' strategy to counter competitive pressure. In Zhongtai Securities' view, China's packaged water industry is undergoing a transformation from quantitative to qualitative change. The core competitiveness of industry supply lies in water resources rather than industrial production. In the future, competition in packaged water will shift from channels to upstream water sources, making source competition the core element. Compared with Nongfu Spring's source-supply strategy, C'estbon has a clear disadvantage in supply chain costs in some regions, especially in East China. For example, on the Dingdong platform, Nongfu Spring's green-bottle purified water (550ml12) costs only 9.9 yuan per case, while C'estbon's 555ml12 bottles cost 12.8 yuan. In this era of value-for-money, C'estbon has lost its biggest advantage and barrier: price. However, C'estbon is not entirely at a disadvantage. For instance, on the same Dingdong platform, Nongfu Spring's 5L/bucket (red bottle) unit price is 8.99 yuan, but C'estbon's 6L/bucket product is only 8.9 yuan. Moreover, C'estbon's 3-bucket case is 26.9 yuan, while Nongfu Spring's 4-bucket case (red bottle) is 31.6 yuan. So, it still has some advantage in home drinking scenarios, but this is not enough to compensate for the share lost in the small and medium bottle market. Postscript Compared with the three giants, do other packaged water brands face less pressure? Actually, not at all. For example, Quanyangquan achieved revenue of 1.022 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 13.68% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the parent was 24.6738 million yuan, up 15.20%. The company's growth is mainly attributed to increased sales of Quanyangquan natural mineral water and the advancement of nationwide expansion. Tibet Water Resources' water business segment revenue reached 118 million yuan in the first half of 2025, up 117.6% year-on-year, accounting for the majority of total revenue... These two companies mainly rely on special channels, such as aviation and high-speed rail, where competition pressure is low due to the closed and exclusive nature of these channels. However, in open channels, these brands have a relatively weak presence. But the 'tit-for-tat' price war among leading brands has put even more pressure on companies like Jingtian (Baishuishan), Master Kong, and Jinmailang. For instance, Master Kong's drinking water business revenue in the first half was only 2.377 billion yuan, down 6.0% year-on-year. In the long run, competition in the drinking water market will only intensify, but for consumers, it is a good thing. Companies are also reluctant to easily give up the market advantage brought by current prices. Once product prices return to normal, if competitors do not follow, it would be tantamount to 'handing over' market share. In this era of stock competition, no company is willing to take that risk. [Moving Toward the C-End] The 11th China FMCG Conference Time: March 16-18, 2026 Location: Chengdu, China