Consumption 3.0 × Supply-Demand Mismatch:

Why Learn from Pop Mart?

In the Consumption 3.0 (emotion-driven) stage, the core contradiction in FMCG is no longer "availability" but "desire." According to the latest data from Bain × Worldpanel, in 2024, the FMCG market saw sales volume +4.4% but average price –3.4%, with obvious "consumption downgrading" and discount competition amplifying the problem of excess supply and insufficient emotion. Meanwhile, emotion-driven products are emerging, with the related market size predicted to exceed 2 trillion yuan. Pop Mart is a prime example of turning this supply-demand mismatch into an advantage: 2024 revenue of 13.04 billion yuan (+107% YoY), gross margin of 66.8%, overseas revenue accounting for 38.9%, and Q1 overseas revenue surging 895% YoY; the official target is for overseas to contribute over 50% by 2025, with 500+ global stores. In this Consumption 3.0 era, Pop Mart, with its "IP × blind box" model, has achieved 60%+ gross margins and rapid overseas expansion, providing a viable route to turn supply-demand mismatch into an advantage. The Reality of Consumption 3.0 and Supply-Demand Mismatch 1. Defining the Coordinates: From "Availability" to "Desire" Consumption 1.0 addressed survival pain points, "food and warmth"; Consumption 2.0 pursued functional efficiency, "value for money"; Consumption 3.0 (current) shifts to emotion and identity: 64% of Chinese consumers list "emotional satisfaction" as a key consideration in purchase decisions, especially Gen Z and young white-collar workers. Functional homogenization and information overload make "visible emotional anchors" a new scarce resource. 2. Supply Side: Product Explosion, Price Collapse In 2024, the Chinese FMCG market grew only +0.8% in value, accompanied by +4.4% volume growth and –3.4% average selling price (ASP) decline, the largest drop in four years. Further breakdown: Q3 2024 saw –3.6% ASP and +4.6% volume YoY, with price wars and lack of innovation making "selling cheaper and cheaper" the main theme. Result: Factories and channels increase new product launches, but fail to provide sufficient emotional value to consumers, putting pressure on both inventory and gross margins. 3. Demand Side: Widening Emotional Gap Economic slowdown and information cocoons lead young people to incorporate "emotional compensation" into daily consumption—from blind boxes and virtual idols to sweet soda. While traditional FMCG competes on "low prices," consumers are willing to pay a premium for products that offer "companionship, cuteness, and stress relief"; Disney's LinaBell and Genki Forest's hidden cans are examples. 4. Pop Mart—A Reverse Example of Emotional Supply Pop Mart's 2024 revenue of 13.04 billion yuan, +106.9% YoY, expands against the stagnant FMCG value, proving that "emotional supply" can resist price deflation. 5. Conclusion Structural mismatch: FMCG suffers from "functional overcapacity" and "emotional supply shortage." Opportunity insight: Those who, like Pop Mart, can use collectible, social, and globalizable IP + small-batch high-premium to restructure supply will regain pricing power in the era of price collapse. Pop Mart's Success Formula: 6 Mechanisms × Data Breakdown Note:

  1. IP ≠ spokesperson, but the product itself; With nearly 98% of IP being proprietary, Pop Mart truly sells "emotional symbols," not plastic materials. For FMCG to learn, packaging and flavors must become collectible, story-driven "characters."
  2. "Oversupply" is reversed; In the context of excessive new product launches in FMCG, Pop Mart does the opposite—limiting production, packaging "uncertainty" as fun and charging a premium.
  3. "Data-Creativity" dual-wheel drive; RoboShop feeds sales heat back to headquarters, allowing hot IPs to be reordered within 2 weeks; cold items shrink quickly. Data turns creativity from a one-time gamble into continuous tuning.
  4. Community as a moat; When 90% of revenue comes from members and nearly half of users repurchase, price discounts lose their decisive role. If FMCG brands can upgrade points into a "task-level-exclusive benefits" loop, they can also weaken the impact of price wars. Conclusion: Pop Mart uses IP emotional anchors + scarce supply + data-driven fast response + membership flywheel to reshape "supply-demand mismatch" in Consumption 3.0—not pursuing unlimited new launches, but making each launch occupy the C-position of user emotions. In the next section, we will map these 6 mechanisms into an actionable strategy checklist for FMCG. 6 Lessons FMCG Can Learn: Turning "Emotional Supply" into Actionable Strategies (1) IP Emotional Anchor: Give Products a Personality Core idea: Stop treating "brand story" as a soft shell; instead, embed a character worldview that consumers can project emotions onto directly into packaging, flavors, and even usage scenarios. Implementation essentials:

  1. First, identify keywords that precisely correspond to "pain/pleasure/itch" emotions (e.g., "stress relief" or "companionship").

  2. Co-create character images with illustrators or design teams, ensuring visual symbols are highly coupled with emotions.

  3. All SKU packaging, ad copy, and short video scripts extend around the character's personality, forming collectible "symbol assets." FMCG example: Coca-Cola Creations' pixel-style "Rhythm Cube" can, through character-driven visuals, upgrades ordinary soda into "portable metaverse fragments." How to do it: 1. Select a core emotion that hits "pain/pleasure/itch" (e.g., "stress relief"); 2. Design character personality and visual symbols; 3. Integrate packaging-flavor-merchandise so consumers "buy the character." Implementation tool: Co-create 10-20 "character emotion cards" with illustrators, run A/B tests on Xiaohongshu before launch, and proceed to sampling if click-through rate >3%. (2) Small Batch × High Premium: Use Scarcity as a Premium Lever Core idea: Use limited editions and hidden items to create FOMO, making "uncertainty" itself valuable; compared to large-scale promotions, small quantities at high prices reduce inventory risk. Implementation essentials:

  1. Initial shipment ≤20% of regular SKU volume, with a public "no reprint" commitment.

  2. Reserve 3–5% hidden versions, limit purchases per person, and guide a healthy premium in the secondary market.

  3. Disclose draw probability and limited numbering on the sales page and packaging to reduce "cash grab" skepticism. FMCG example: Lay's regional limited chips sold out within 48 hours of initial release, relying on the "small batch + non-reproducible" strategy. Key points:

. Limited threshold: Initial quantity ≤20% of regular SKU, with clear "no reprint" announcement. 2. Hidden item probability: Control at 1:80–150, allowing secondary market premium but not overheating. Cost reminder: High premium should come from creativity, not raw materials; a markup of 3–5 times covers design and mold costs. (3) Story-Driven Launches: Turn Releases into a Series Core idea: Use serialized plots and unboxing easter eggs to turn "purchasing behavior" into a "binge-watching experience." Implementation essentials:

  1. Set quarterly or monthly continuous storylines, with new easter eggs each time characters appear.

  2. T-7 days: story posters for preheating; T-day: live unboxing; T+3 days: share hidden items to win priority purchase for next season.

  3. Use AR or short video filters to let consumers unlock a second layer of content after unboxing, stimulating social sharing. FMCG example: Mixue Bingcheng's temporary "Grape Sorbet Shake" used a 4-day limited + story check-in to instantly ignite Douyin topics. Node script:

  1. T-7 days: Character short drama × flavor easter egg posters;
  2. T-day 0:00: Live unboxing premiere;
  3. T+3 days: Share hidden items to draw priority purchase rights for next season. Effect metric: When topic volume/exposure ≥3 times target sales, discuss secondary restocking. (4) Data-Driven Supply: Weekly Life-and-Death Decisions for Each SKU Core idea: Consolidate sell-through data, UGC heat, and secondary market prices into one dashboard, with a 14-day cycle to decide increase or stop production, achieving true "small batch, fast response." Implementation essentials:

  1. Deploy smart shelves or cloud POS for daily SKU-level sales updates.

  2. BI dashboard also captures social media topic volume, generating a "heat-sales" matrix.

  3. Green light (top 10%) immediately reorder; red light (bottom 30%) clear or cut line. FMCG example: Genki Forest's "Zizai Shui" rapidly expanded production based on real-time stockout data, becoming a billion-yuan product in three months. Execution steps: Build a "14-day sell-through dashboard" in ERP: top 10% sales = green light reorder; bottom 30% = red light reduce or clear. System integration: Smart shelves upload SKU-level data → BI dashboard auto-labels → procurement meets daily at 11:00 to decide. (5) Membership × Community Flywheel: Upgrade Points to Task-Based Growth Core idea: Instead of old-style "buy more, get more" points, use "unboxing → sharing → check-in" to drive level growth, making identity replace discounts as the repurchase driver. Implementation essentials:

  1. Three tiers to start: Rookie (registration), Pro (4 check-ins/month), Master (refer 5 people), with clear thresholds.

  2. Each level offers only emotional benefits: hidden flavor redemption, designer co-creation opportunities, not pure discounts.

  3. Design an online task board showing real-time progress to next level, triggering a "level-up" psychology. FMCG example: Starbucks' upgraded Star levels use "hidden drinks + store badges" to increase average spend among young users. Rules: Supply-Demand Rebalancing Flywheel Model Let "Emotional Supply" Self-Reinforce Core proposition: In Consumption 3.0, companies need to shift from one-time "hit creation" to a cyclical "emotion creation." Methodology: Link Pop Mart's six mechanisms into a closed loop, allowing emotional value → purchase motivation → data insights → supply decisions to accelerate positively. Operational logic breakdown:

. Emotional insight = starter motor; Monitor high-frequency emotion words like "anxiety, stress relief, companionship" to find unmet "emotional gaps." 2. IP-ified products = torque amplifier; Use character personality to translate functional differences into emotional differences, making all packaging "stories you can take away." 3. Small-batch blind boxes = low-cost ignition; Use scarcity to replace large-scale promotion, turning uncertainty into premium and quickly validating market temperature. 4. Community fission = flywheel inertia; UGC unboxing videos preheat the next traffic cycle; point tasks lock users into an "emotion-reward" loop. 5. Data fast response = voltage stabilizer; Weekly decisions on SKU life and death reduce inventory and feed "heat feedback" faster into next creative cycle. 6. Cash flow reinvestment = sustained fuel; Cash flow from high margins is invested in new IPs and cross-industry collaborations, enriching the worldview and driving the next round of insights. Action Priority Checklist 3 Steps to Turn Strategy into This Month's KPIs Goal: Complete one "emotional supply" closed-loop trial within 8 weeks, obtain real sales and data feedback, and lay the foundation for large-scale replication next season. 1. IP Emotional Diagnosis (Weeks 1–3) What to do: Review existing packaging, flavors, and communication materials to assess whether they can carry a character worldview. Identify 1–2 core emotional keywords (e.g., "stress relief," "companionship") and co-create character prototypes with illustrators. Key milestones:

Deliver the "Character Personality-SKU Mapping Table."

Complete A/B concept testing on Xiaohongshu with click-through rate ≥3%. Responsible department: Brand leads; creative team provides visual solutions; market research assists testing. Resources: 1 designer + test budget of approximately ¥50K. Acceptance criteria: Mapping table passes review; test click-through rate meets target to proceed. 2. Blind Box Small-Batch Trial (Weeks 4–6) What to do: Select candidate SKUs from the previous step, develop limited packaging with ≤5% hidden versions. Launch limited sales via mini-program or private domain mall, publicly committing to "no reprint" and disclosing draw probabilities. Key milestones: Sample 2000–5000 units and complete quality inspection.

Sell-through rate ≥80% within 24 hours of launch; hidden items achieve ≥3× premium in secondary market. Responsible department: Product R&D coordinates sampling; supply chain arranges production; brand handles launch and promotion. Resources: Packaging mold fee approximately ¥80K + 2-week production schedule. Acceptance criteria: Sell-through and premium rates meet targets; consumer complaint rate below 1%. 3. Emotion-Data Dual Dashboard (From Week 7) What to do: Integrate sell-through data (sales, turnover days), UGC heat (social media topic volume), and secondary market prices into the BI system for one-screen visualization. Set "green light increase production/red light stop production" thresholds: top 10% hot SKUs immediately restock; bottom 30% exit. Key milestone: BI dashboard goes live and serves as decision basis in weekly meetings. Responsible department: Data center connects ERP and social media APIs; IT deploys visualization screens; operations issues restock/elimination orders. Resources: BI license approximately ¥30K + 1 data engineer-week. Acceptance criteria: Dashboard runs stably; restock/stop production decision accuracy (measured by sales performance after 4 weeks) ≥70%. Implementation Rhythm at a Glance: Weeks 1–3: IP emotional diagnosis → Weeks 4–6: Blind box small-batch trial → From Week 7: Data dashboard drives fast response. Once the first blind box trial succeeds and enters the dashboard loop, the "emotional supply flywheel" officially starts, and the next round can expand the character worldview to more SKUs and channels. In the Consumption 3.0 world, price wars are no longer the decisive factor; emotional wars are the growth anchor. When FMCG brands shift from SKU quantity competition to the IP × emotional value supply logic—using small-batch scarcity, character-driven companionship, and data-driven fast response to re-match consumers' "desire" gap—gross margin and repurchase rate no longer conflict but form a mutually reinforcing flywheel. Pop Mart has proven: as long as you treat creativity as capacity, community as a channel, and emotion as a production resource, supply-demand mismatch is no longer an industry fate but a brand's excess return. 🔺Scan for ticket consultation🔺