Click the image for details. In the film 'The Wandering Earth', due to global warming and harsh environmental conditions, the sun's core rapidly ages, forcing humanity to develop planetary engines to move Earth out of its orbit around the sun, leaving the Milky Way in search of a new habitat. Though this is a plot from a movie, it applies equally to the FMCG industry: when those once hugely popular 'billion-yuan hit products' that contributed significant market share and profit to brands gradually enter an era of rapid aging, where should they wander? Recently, Danone Group released its full-year 2018 financial report, showing sales revenue of €24.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%; recurring operating profit of €3.6 billion, with a recurring operating margin up 51 basis points to 14.45%; net profit of €2.349 billion, down 4.1% year-on-year. Notably, Danone's star hit product 'Mizone' showed obvious signs of weakness. Since its official launch in 2003, Mizone has been on the market for 16 years. Since 2010, it has consistently ranked first in market share in China's bottled functional beverage market. From 2013 to 2015, its terminal retail sales were 6.7 billion yuan, 8.6 billion yuan, and 9.8 billion yuan respectively, with annual growth rates stable at double digits. By 2015, Mizone's market share reached 91.2%, and it remains China's number one sports beverage brand. However, starting in 2016, the growing sports and energy drink market attracted many new entrants, such as COFCO's BigBang and Coca-Cola's Monster beverages. In addition, Red Bull, Nongfu Spring's 'Scream', Wahaha's 'Activate', and Huabin Group's 'War Horse' all joined the competitive fray. The intense market competition directly impacted Mizone's performance, with sales in China declining for the first time in 2016, marking the first drop in Mizone's retail sales in China since 2010. How to keep 'pulsing' will become a major challenge for the Danone empire in 2019. Not only Danone, but another FMCG giant, Wahaha, faces the same problem. Its billion-yuan single product 'Nutri-Express' is also at risk of rapid aging. Speaking of Nutri-Express, this product can be said to have helped Wahaha conquer half of its market. With cumulative sales exceeding 120 billion yuan from this single product alone, it once created a miracle of 20 billion yuan in annual sales, making it a phenomenal super product in China's FMCG market. Zong Qinghou once said that the product that impressed him most in the Wahaha system was not the children's nutrition liquid that founded the company, nor the AD calcium milk that is a childhood memory for post-80s and rivals 'happy water' (cola), but Nutri-Express. This answer is not surprising. From its launch in 2004 to May 2014, Nutri-Express sold a cumulative 39.4 billion bottles over ten years. In 2017, although performance was not disclosed, industry insiders estimated it might be only around 40 billion yuan. However, as the saying goes, 'no flower blooms for a hundred days,' Nutri-Express's sales declined from 15.36 billion yuan in 2014 to 11.54 billion yuan in 2015 and 8.42 billion yuan in 2016, and the myth of the 'hit product' is gone forever. Compared to Mizone and Nutri-Express, the decline of pre-mixed cocktail beverage RIO is even more lamentable. This seemingly niche product, under the operation of Liu Xiaodong, was transformed from a debt of 25 million yuan into a hit with revenue of 1.617 billion yuan in 2015. The turning point came in 2014, when RIO spent 200 million yuan on product placements in the variety show 'Running Man' and the TV drama 'Silent Separation', a final gamble that brought RIO overnight fame. With the popularity of these two shows, RIO's revenue in the first half of 2015 reached 1.617 billion yuan, becoming a trendy drink hit among young consumers and the number one single product in the future 30-billion-yuan pre-mixed cocktail market. However, like a meteor, RIO's popularity has gradually been forgotten by the market. The most recent impression might be the cross-category gimmick of 'one sip repels mosquitoes, two sips captivate the soul'. Why have these 'billion-yuan' hit products, which once controlled the market and even drove entire empires, all inevitably headed toward decline? One inevitable factor is time, just as everyone cannot resist the damage of time, and hit products are no exception. Even century-old products like Coca-Cola face the risk of sluggish consumption. Additionally, complacency and lack of innovation are internal causes accelerating the demise of hit products. In this era of multi-dimensional attacks, where 'mobile phones kill chewing gum', 'food delivery defeats instant noodles', and 'mobile payment beats thieves', every successful product should maintain constant vigilance toward the market and reverence for consumers. This is even more true for hit products, because behind a hit product lies the market, consumers, and profits. If the demise of a hit product is inevitable, then maximize the extension of its survival period from both internal and external aspects; if the ultimate outcome is destruction, then 'wander' in advance. It doesn't matter where you wander; what matters is staying true to your original intention and continuing to innovate. Perhaps the next stop will be the beginning of a new myth! Source: FMCG Sharp Observation (ID: Fast-2015) New Distribution will hold the 2019 (5th) FMCG + Internet Conference during the Chengdu Spring Sugar Fair from March 15 to March 18. This conference will focus on the theme 'Breakthrough', with in-depth discussions involving numerous brand owners, supply chain service providers, distributors, and retailers. Compared to previous conferences, this summit will be fully upgraded. In addition to original topics such as channel innovation, urban distribution logistics, and distributor transformation, it will add multiple parallel forums on new marketing cases, IP + FMCG empowerment, community group buying, and innovative retail. Through three days of ten high-density, high-quality expert sharing sessions, we believe every brand owner and distributor will learn the latest business models, expert insights, and practical methods, finding new tools and approaches for their own breakthrough in 2019 and returning to a track of high-speed growth. Review of Previous Conferences -END-