The coffee price war has not stopped. Two years ago, coffee brands like Luckin and Cotti pushed coffee prices down to 9.9 yuan; now, new tea brands like Guming and ChaPanda have brought the price war into the 4-yuan-plus era. Competition in the coffee industry is no longer a single contest between enterprises or a temporary traffic-driving tactic; the entire industry has been swept up in it. Tea and coffee brands including Luckin, Cotti, Guming, ChaPanda, Starbucks, Peet's Coffee, and KFC's K Coffee are all cutting prices and promoting sales. Starbucks has even, for the first time in its 26 years in the Chinese market, adjusted its price system: dozens of products such as Frappuccinos, iced shaken teas, and tea lattes have seen collective price cuts, with an average reduction of about 5 yuan for large cups, and the lowest price dropping to 23 yuan. Low-priced coffee has become the norm, and the "Three Kingdoms" battle on delivery platforms has pushed the price war to a new climax. On delivery platforms, if consumers choose in-store pickup, they can buy a cup of Cotti Gold Award Dark Roast Americano, originally priced at 8.8 yuan, for just 0.5 yuan, and a cup of Luckin standard Americano, listed at 8.9 yuan, for 2.9 yuan. This is a coffee war that drags the entire industry down, repeatedly deconstructing the value of coffee. High-end coffee brands like Starbucks and Peet's Coffee have successively sold themselves, low-priced coffee brands are undercutting each other, and the industry is fiercely competitive. Coffee enters the 4-yuan-plus era In 2023, Cotti and Luckin successively ignited the first coffee price war, ushering the coffee industry into the 9.9-yuan era. However, after nearly a year of close combat, Luckin turned from profit to loss, and Cotti also fell into a growth dilemma of loss-making expansion. After that, the 9.9-yuan promotion gradually shrank, and the 9.9-yuan coffee price war gradually subsided. After this battle, consumers' perception of coffee was almost fixed at 9.9 yuan per cup. In 2025, the second coffee price war was initiated by new tea companies. Consumers' expectations for a "reasonable price" for coffee were once again overturned, with the price anchor directly dropping to 4 yuan-plus. In September, the new tea brand Guming launched a 45-day "10,000-store carnival, first cup of coffee from 4.9 yuan" campaign, pricing a single Americano at 4.9 yuan, nearly half the 9.9-yuan price, making it more of a "price butcher" than Luckin or Cotti. Besides the 4.9-yuan Americano, other products also had great price advantages: 6.9 yuan and 9.9 yuan. Guming, which started with milk tea, has been laying out its coffee business for a long time. It began testing coffee products in 2019 and launched "flash-brewed coffee" and fruit coffee products in 2023. In June this year, Guming also grandly announced actor Daniel Wu as its spokesperson and launched a limited-time "8.9-yuan coffee" promotion, but consumer perception has not changed. Guming coffee directly benchmarks Luckin. Guming's coffee, originally priced between 10 and 18 yuan, is in the same price band as Luckin and Cotti. A Guming store manager told the author that coffee is now a standard offering in stores, and new franchise stores in 2025 are almost all sixth-generation stores with coffee-colored decor and standard coffee machines. In his area, sixth-generation stores sell coffee well. Although the company has not said that Guming coffee benchmarks Luckin, they use the same coffee machines and the same factory as Luckin. Guming's investment in coffee is not small. Since it began testing coffee in 2019, Guming has equipped more than 8,000 stores with coffee machines. With nearly 12,000 stores nationwide, this means two-thirds of Guming stores offer coffee products. However, Guming coffee is currently only available in a small scope and not fully launched; the 4.9-yuan coffee promotion only covers Guangzhou and Chengdu. Tea companies are trying to find new growth markets in the coffee category. Similarly, the new tea brand ChaPanda has also entered the low-price coffee track. Since June this year, ChaPanda has been piloting freshly ground coffee products in some stores in Guangdong and Sichuan, with prices starting at 6.9 yuan. Under the low-price strategy, coffee has become a new growth point for brands. A ChaPanda store employee revealed that his store has been offering coffee products for half a year, with coffee prices at 5.9 yuan and 6.9 yuan, and about dozens of orders per day. But the impact is very limited, as only a few stores offer coffee. Many ChaPanda store employees do not even know that the company has launched coffee products. Luckin at 5 yuan, Cotti at 5.9 yuan join the fray While tea companies like Guming and ChaPanda are attacking with low prices, the first-generation coffee price war players are not sitting idle. In September, Luckin launched a high-profile promotion on JD.com: two cups for as low as 9.9 yuan. The 9.9-yuan two cups of aloe iced tea, which is priced at 8.9 yuan per cup on Luckin's mini-program. Alongside the 9.9-yuan two-cup promotion, there are also 15.9-yuan two-cup and 29.9-yuan five-cup promotions. In Luckin's product series, products like Pomelo C Americano, Jasmine Flower Latte, Light Milk Tea, and Jasmine Latte are combined in pairs for 15.9 yuan. Jasmine Flower Latte and Fresh Brewed Jasmine are combined for 5 cups at 29.9 yuan, equivalent to 6 yuan per cup. The promotions have directly boosted order volumes. A Luckin store manager said that overall, orders have increased, and coffee prices have become cheaper. The boundary between coffee and milk tea is becoming increasingly blurred, and players in the track are attacking each other's territory. Cotti, the initiator of the last coffee price war, has also followed suit. A Cotti franchise store manager told the author that Cotti has promotions almost every time period, and stores follow Cotti headquarters. In September this year, it was a milk tea promotion, with a cup of milk tea at 6.9 yuan. In October, a classic coffee promotion was launched, with four Americano varieties all at 5.9 yuan, allowing users to enjoy a cup of Cotti coffee for just 5.9 yuan. Cotti coffee has dropped from 9.9 yuan to 5.9 yuan. The store manager said that the 5.9-yuan coffee promotion is a brand-owned activity and does not include delivery; previously, Cotti's cheap prices were due to delivery platforms subsidizing brands. Last year, except for first-order coupons and new store opening promotions, the daily price of a cup of coffee was almost always 9.9 yuan. This year, they directly launched 5.9-yuan coffee products. The Cotti store manager said that in the past, for a 9.9-yuan cup of coffee, no matter what the consumer paid, the store's revenue was 9.9 yuan, and the platform made up the difference. Now, the store and the platform jointly run promotions, and the store's revenue per cup is only 6-7 yuan, with platform subsidies decreasing and average order value declining. Parallel to the price war initiated by coffee and tea companies, external forces from delivery platforms have pushed the coffee price war into the 2-yuan-plus era. JD.com has brought Luckin's two-cup coffee price down to 15.9 yuan, equivalent to 8 yuan per cup, while Meituan has brought a cup of coffee down to 5.9 yuan. Meituan has issued exclusive red envelopes for new customers of in-store pickup, worth 4 yuan and 2 yuan. Without using platform red envelopes, a cup of Luckin Americano for in-store pickup costs 5.9 yuan. After using platform red envelopes, the in-store pickup prices for Luckin coffee are: Americano 2.9 yuan, Aloe Americano 3.9 yuan, Double Coconut Latte 4.5 yuan, and Coconut Latte 6.9 yuan. For Cotti, in-store pickup prices are: Coconut Latte 3.5 yuan and Gold Award Dark Roast Americano 0.5 yuan. In contrast, Luckin's own mini-program prices are: standard Americano 8.9 yuan per cup and Coconut Latte 9.9 yuan per cup. Who is killed by 2.9-yuan coffee? Besides Luckin, Cotti, Guming, and ChaPanda, there is another "price butcher" in the coffee industry that has driven coffee prices to rock bottom. Since July this year, Lucky Cup, a sub-brand of the down-market giant Mixue Ice City, has entered Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou with a cup of coffee priced at 6.9 yuan, with dozens of stores opening in Beijing one after another. A store employee at a Lucky Cup store in Beijing told the author that her store opened in early September, and the new store launched a series of promotional activities. In October, Meituan activities were launched, making prices even lower. The signature iced latte for in-store pickup is 3.5 yuan, other drinks range from 3.5 to 4.7 yuan, and iced Americano is 2.9 yuan. After launching on Pinduoduo's "Pin Haofan" (group buying), a cup of Lucky Cup's signature iced latte costs only 2.9 yuan, and the multi-berry iced tea is the cheapest at 1.9 yuan. The employee said that the store's daily order volume increases by dozens of cups, and during the National Day holiday, good days saw an increase of more than 200 cups. A 2.9-yuan cup of Lucky Cup coffee is even cheaper than the coffee drinks at Mixue Ice City stores, where coffee is priced at 6-9 yuan. Freshly ground coffee has become cheaper than instant coffee. Lucky Cup and Mixue Ice City are under the same company, but Lucky Cup's independent stores have coffee machines and focus on freshly ground coffee, while Mixue Ice City stores also have coffee drinks but no coffee machines. According to a Mixue Ice City store employee, coffee drinks account for a relatively low proportion of sales, about 10% of revenue, with daily output of 40-50 cups. The coffee is made from coffee powder brewed in-store, uniformly purchased from headquarters. In the past few months, during the fierce "Three Kingdoms" battle on delivery platforms, Mixue Ice City coffee, apart from participating in the platform's 0-yuan in-store pickup activities, has maintained daily prices of about 5-7 yuan. In the past, a 9.9-yuan cup of coffee required scale and supply chain advantages for a company to be profitable. Now, a cup of coffee priced at 2.9-8 yuan seems difficult to break even. The "price war" is a double-edged sword. Low prices can temporarily boost store traffic to record highs; a store with a normal daily order volume of 400-500 cups can rise to 800 cups during promotions. But it also affects profit margins because the average order value decreases. The increase in players has also made business worse for many stores. A Cotti store manager said that the increase in surrounding stores has hurt business; with several Cotti stores within one kilometer, competition is too fierce, and her store's order volume is clearly declining. Industry competition has become more brutal, with more than 50,000 coffee shops leaving the market in the past year. Data from Narrow Door Catering Eye shows that as of September 16, the total number of coffee shops nationwide is nearly 234,000, with 70,600 new stores opened in the past year, a net increase of 17,600, and 53,000 coffee shops exiting. High-end coffee brands have not only passively joined the industry price war and cut prices but have also had to lay off employees and sell themselves. For example, Starbucks China business has been reported to be up for sale, and Peet's Coffee has been acquired. Reports say that the sale of Starbucks China business has entered the final negotiation stage, with potential buyers including four institutions: Boyu Capital, Carlyle Group, EQT, and Sequoia China. The transaction is expected to be completed by the end of October 2025, with Starbucks retaining a 30% stake. For coffee players, whether they can ultimately stay at the table may depend on the industry chain and supply chain. An industry insider said that this year, the coffee track has become more segmented, and user needs have become more diverse. At around 5 yuan, 10 yuan, 20-plus yuan, and 30-plus yuan, everyone is in different tracks, serving their respective consumer groups. As consumers, the cheaper the coffee, the better; everyone likes cheap prices. But as an industry, we still need long-termism. The development of the industry chain and supply chain requires investment, and things cannot get worse and worse.