1. The current discount model is not based on supply chain optimization but on subsidies from investors and low-margin franchise models, leading to unsustainable losses.
  2. Discounts and snacks are still in the early stages of the Dunning-Kruger effect, but will likely peak soon. I boldly predict that by mid-next year, there will be widespread negative effects, as small entrepreneurs can't sustain losses for long.
  3. Discount is a long-term, penny-picking business, not a quick-money or big-profit business. The current exaggerated consolidation in snack stores is a VC-driven business model, which has been proven in countless previous tracks and will soon show its drawbacks. A batch of brands will likely die.
  4. I firmly believe in the hard discount model in the long run, but it requires systematic optimization, built incrementally on existing business foundations. Given the highly fragmented Chinese retail landscape, achieving Aldi's status in Germany may take longer and be more complex.
  5. In near-field, physical, and community retail, discounts are part of consumer demand, but consumers also have needs for quality, immediacy, convenience, and experience. Treating discounts as the sole selling point while ignoring other needs is problematic. Low prices are a hard truth, but not the whole truth; meeting consumer needs is what matters.
  6. China is still developing rapidly, with 700 million people having consumption upgrade needs. The middle class's balance sheets are not as dire as Japan's. Overly focusing on macro data while ignoring real consumer spending around you will mislead many.
  7. Whether it's the fall of new consumption or the rise of discount retail, the big logic is VC-driven. In the early stages of competition, the golden decade of the consumer market is not just talk. Let's wait and see; brands can take their time with discounts.
  8. Dealers' anxiety is understandable as markets are constantly segmented and costs rise, but the biggest issue is their operational inefficiency. Building new channel capabilities, improving single-store performance in old channels, and increasing per-capita output are all tasks for dealers. As the saying goes, out-compete yourself and out-compete your peers!
  9. When the tide recedes, it's time to truly assess channel brands' management capabilities. Discount stores use your products as cannon fodder, snack stores demand low prices, and dealers complain about no profits. All this points to brand premium capability, which comes from product innovation, quality commitment, adherence to corporate values, and sustained investment in brand lines. These are long-term efforts that cannot be rushed.
  10. China's 30 years of high growth have ended, but inertia remains, with many assuming all business must be done quickly, seizing opportunities and possibilities, fearing that missing out means death. However, in reality, when economic growth slows, one must do slow business, return to business fundamentals and original value, and focus on profitable endeavors. In the future, it's those who rush who will die first.