Recently, several friends from brand companies called me to discuss what opportunities remain in the market next year. I think this topic might interest many, so today I'd like to share my views on where the incremental market opportunities lie in 2025. From a macro perspective, the growth opportunities in 2025 certainly won't be in first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, or Guangzhou. Breaking down the market, we can still find many structural opportunities. I've summarized these into four growth opportunities.

Microclimates within the macro environment China's consumption has been sluggish for over two years now. Actually, the national economic development is still okay, but mainly due to the drag from real estate, household balance sheets have deteriorated, leading to weak consumer confidence. Although real estate is struggling, China's exports have been growing steadily, especially in 2024, which was a big year for international inventory restocking. As a result, China's manufacturing has remained stable, and the export structure has undergone significant changes, continuously upgrading towards new energy, electromechanical products, automobiles, and chips with higher added value. The main point here is to tell you that while consumption and real estate are dragging, manufacturing and exports are still doing well, which means consumption in areas with manufacturing will not decline much. So my suggestion is: don't just look at sinking markets or rural areas, because rural areas are already empty. Instead, focus on the sinking opportunities within manufacturing industrial belts. I've summarized these opportunities as: look at the top 100 counties and top 1000 towns in manufacturing. Despite the poor macro environment, consumption in lower-tier markets and manufacturing industrial belts remains robust and strong.

New consumption amid major downgrading In the past two years, although people have less money, you may have noticed that cultural tourism in various places, especially at famous scenic spots, has seen huge foot traffic. For FMCG, where there are people, there is consumption. So whether it's Harbin in winter, Zibo in summer, or night tours in Kaifeng, cultural tourism consumption, especially IP consumption, is still worth attention and following.

New business formats within major channels Here I want to talk about the fact that bulk snack stores, discount stores, and budget supermarkets have been opening and renovating stores across the country vigorously in the past two years. In 2025, regional hard discount stores like Tiaoma, Yipin Fresh, and Jingmeng, along with Zhao Yiming, Haoxianglai, and Snacks Busy, are also actively transforming into discount stores. These formats haven't seen substantial innovation in supply chains, but due to their upgraded store formats and low-price advantages from compressing supply chain costs, they have gained a lot of retail traffic. Therefore, for brand companies, this remains a key point to watch closely.

New efficiencies amid major cost reduction This brings me to B2b. Although Retail Link is no longer viable, according to incomplete statistics from New Distribution, there are already over 40 B2b platforms in China with annual sales exceeding 100 million yuan, and nearly 100 B2b platforms nationwide that can be counted. The GMV scale has basically absorbed all the scale that Retail Link once achieved, and in local markets, they have deeper penetration, broader coverage, and higher stickiness with small stores. For brands that haven't done deep distribution, this is a good way to achieve comprehensive coverage of local small stores.

Summary From a market perspective: pay more attention to lower-tier markets, which will be better than higher-tier markets, and the western region will grow faster than the eastern region. In summary, focus on the top 100 counties and top 1000 towns in manufacturing industrial belts. Secondly, pay attention to cultural tourism consumption areas, which will become key gathering points for people, and within regional markets, there will also be tourism hotspots that brands need to strategically position in. Thirdly, regarding popular traffic channels, discount stores will definitely become a focus in 2025. Brands with insufficient offline penetration should consider actively deploying there. Lastly, pay more attention to B2b. Currently, there are over 100 B2b platforms nationwide, with total volume exceeding Retail Link's GMV, making it an excellent channel for small store coverage. Have you noticed that the increments I see are essentially new traffic in the market, or structural traffic, and the reintegration of traffic. We just need to focus on where consumers go to spend and where the money is, concentrate our efforts, seize these traffic-rich places, and do them thoroughly. Of course, this doesn't mean ignoring changes in mainstream consumer demand; we still need to innovate continuously and pay attention to scenarios and emotional value. We'll discuss that later.

【New Order · Symbiosis】 The 10th China FMCG Innovation Conference Date: March 17-19, 2025 Location: Chengdu, China