For a long time, the carbonated beverage world was dominated by Pepsi and Coca-Cola, leaving little room for other brands. Until recent years, the 'guochao' (national trend) concept has been embraced by millennials, reviving dormant domestic soda brands like Beibingyang, Bingfeng, and Erchang, which have ridden the fast track of the times, making a comeback in the night market economy. Domestic carbonated beverages are on the rise, becoming a hot topic in the industry in recent years. Unfortunately, no local company has gone public. According to public information, both Beibingyang and Bingfeng have attempted IPOs, but the process was not smooth, and both companies failed. Recently, a reporter from CNR (China National Radio) interviewed Lan Shili, the actual controller of Wuhan Erchang Soda, and learned that Wuhan Erchang Soda also plans to enter the capital market, striving to become the 'first domestic soda stock.' Can the capital dream of domestic sodas come true? In this regard, industry analysis suggests that the previous IPO failures of domestic sodas are due to common pain points. In terms of channels, high profits have made many restaurants willing to promote them, opening up the restaurant line, but online sales are lackluster, essentially walking with a limp; In terms of national expansion, they still rely on concept and nostalgia, holding a certain market share in local or neighboring provinces, but when looking at the whole country, there are many regional brand competitors, making progress difficult; In terms of products, they occasionally stand out in cultural tourism IPs in recent years, but this is supported by heavy marketing investment. The products themselves have not seen significant iteration or word-of-mouth improvement. New products have buzz but low repurchase rates. ****The Narrow Path for Domestic Carbonated Beverages The technical threshold for carbonated beverages is actually not high. Decades ago, domestic brands like Beibingyang and Jianlibao made a name for themselves in the carbonated beverage market, enjoying great popularity. However, in the beverage industry, besides technology, factors such as channels and suppliers also play a crucial role. After the reform and opening up, foreign brands flooded into the Chinese market. Coca-Cola and Pepsi quickly expanded their territory, and suppliers and channel agents gradually made choices in the 'either-or' dilemma, causing domestic carbonated beverages to almost disappear from the market. Until recent years, with the 'guochao' trend, childhood memories seem to have returned. Many netizens posted pictures of Beibingyang, Bingfeng, and Erchang soda on the internet or in their social circles, triggering a wave of nostalgia. According to public information, the predecessor of Beibingyang Food Company was the Beiping Ice Factory, established in 1936. Beijing Beibingyang Food Company was restructured and established in 1985, achieving a net profit of over 13 million yuan in just three years. At that time, people's living standards were improving, and Beibingyang soda attracted a large number of consumers, including those in Beijing. In 1994, amid the wave of attracting foreign investment, Beibingyang Food Company cooperated with foreign investors to establish four joint ventures, and 'Beibingyang' soda was assigned to one of them, Pepsi-Beibingyang Beverage Co., Ltd. Unfortunately, three of the companies, including Pepsi-Beibingyang, closed down shortly after, leaving only Beijing Pepsi-Cola Beverage Co., Ltd. to continue producing 'Beibingyang' brand bottled purified water. In 2008, Beijing Yiqing Group, the superior unit of Beibingyang Food Company, announced an internal asset restructuring. After many hardships, Beibingyang soda, which had been out of production for nearly 15 years, was re-launched. The redesigned bottle, still featuring the long-necked white bear, priced at less than 3 yuan, filled many Beijingers with anticipation. Erchang soda is Wuhan's Binjiang brand soda, which was popular throughout Wuhan in the 1970s and 1980s, and is a shared childhood memory for the older generation in Wuhan. However, due to the impact of foreign beverages, Erchang soda ceased production in 2000. It wasn't until recent years, with the shift in consumption concepts of the new generation, that Erchang soda was rebuilt in 2017 and officially went on sale in 2018. Reappearing on the market, Erchang soda bet on marketing this time, enhancing brand awareness and reputation through highly interactive and topical soda products. For example, on Valentine's Day, they launched limited-edition cherry and peach flavored sodas, and 'tampered' with the labels, printing passionate confessions. As long as customers tore off the bottle label and heated it slightly, they could see a 'cheesy confession,' making it a marketing dark horse in the beverage industry that year. Data shows that after the 'new' Erchang soda was launched, sales reached 90 million yuan within a year; in 2019, it achieved explosive growth with offline sales exceeding 500 million yuan; in 2020, it completed two rounds of financing with total financing exceeding 100 million yuan. Bingfeng, on the other hand, originated from Xi'an's first soda factory, Northwest Soda Factory, established in 1948. The name has an interesting origin: after the Northwest Soda Factory merged into Xi'an Food Factory, 'one day, a heavy snow froze the well pulley used to draw water for soda production, and the snow and ice piled up like a small peak,' hence the name 'Bingfeng' (Ice Peak). With the entry of foreign brands like Coca-Cola and Pepsi, most local specialty soda brands were either acquired or shut down. After the survival of the fittest, only a few domestic brands remained, and Xi'an's Bingfeng Beverage is one of them. Despite fierce competition, it has maintained a market share of around 30%, demonstrating its strong influence in Xi'an. In recent years, as domestic sodas have gained prominence, Bingfeng has also seen a turning point. Some netizens have remarked that Beijing Beibingyang, Shenyang Bawangsi, Tianjin Shanhaiguan, Qingdao Laoshan Cola, Wuhan Erchang Soda, Chongqing Tianfu Cola, Guangzhou Asia Soda, and Shanghai Zhengguanghe—the 'Eight Domestic Brands'—will make a strong comeback. Indeed, driven by the strong demand of the younger generation, domestic carbonated beverages are beginning to recover. Many restaurant counters are now dominated by domestic carbonated beverages. Data from food delivery platforms also shows that since this year, the instant retail sales of Shanhaiguan, Bawangsi, Erchang Soda, Beibingyang, Asia Soda, Laoshan Soda, Tianfu Cola, and Zhengguanghe—the 'Eight Major Domestic Sodas'—have increased by 35.6% year-on-year, with Asia Soda growing by 59.4%, Beibingyang by 37.3%, and Laoshan Soda by 47.3%. Since June, the 'Eight Major Domestic Beverages' delivery orders on the platform have increased by 29% year-on-year. ****Lack of Core Competitiveness Makes the Road to Listing Uncertain Although there are signs of recovery and sales are on the rise, the days of domestic carbonated beverages are actually tough, and none have knocked on the door of capital. In 2020, after time-honored brands in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region like Zhang Xiaoquan (301055.SZ) and Wufangzhai (603237.SH) expressed intentions to go public, Beibingyang, also a time-honored brand, became interested and began planning a backdoor listing. In November of that year, Dahao Technology announced that it was planning to purchase 100% of the equity of Beijing Yiqing Asset Management Co., Ltd., held by its controlling shareholder Beijing Yiqing Holdings Co., Ltd., by issuing shares. At the same time, Dahao Technology would also purchase 45% of the shares of Hongxing Co., Ltd. from Jingtai Investment by issuing shares. After the transaction, Dahao Technology would directly and indirectly hold 100% of Hongxing's shares. Yiqing Holdings is the parent company of Beibingyang. This meant that if the restructuring succeeded, Beibingyang and Hongxing assets would be packaged and backdoor-listed through Dahao Technology, transforming Dahao Technology from a tech stock to a consumer stock. However, as it turned out, the backdoor listing plan fell through. Some analysts believe that the main concern was capital's worry about Beibingyang's limited growth and innovation, and this inherent disadvantage is also a key point that regulators are wary of under the registration system. Besides Beibingyang, Bingfeng also publicly announced its listing plans. On July 9, 2021, the CSRC pre-disclosed Bingfeng Beverage's prospectus, which planned to raise 669 million yuan for projects such as the renovation and expansion of glass bottle production lines, marketing service network upgrades and brand building, and information management platform construction. However, after queuing for more than 11 months, Bingfeng Beverage chose to give up at the last step. In May of last year, according to an announcement by the Issuance Examination Committee, the review of Bingfeng Beverage's issuance application was canceled because the company withdrew its application materials. Industry analysis suggests that the failure to list may be due to the overly concentrated sales regions of Bingfeng Beverage. Just as Beibingyang is to Beijing and Dayao is to Northeast and Inner Mongolia, Bingfeng's nostalgia is limited to the Sanqin region, a dilemma that is hard to break through. The prospectus shows that from 2018 to 2020 and the first half of 2021, Shaanxi region contributed 87.44%, 81.73%, 80.23%, and 77.79% of Bingfeng's main business revenue, respectively. Previously, to revive old products, old soda brands bet on packaging and marketing innovation. In addition to continuing to produce traditional glass bottle products, they also launched canned and plastic bottle products, and introduced new flavors such as apple, white peach, kumquat lemon, sour plum soup, and cherry. Tempted by the 'newness,' many consumers are willing to buy and try, but without breakthroughs in the products themselves, taste feedback is mixed, leading to low repurchase rates for new products. Many new products show slowing growth or even negative growth, posing risks to long-term and sustainable brand development. Moreover, the home turf of old carbonated beverage brands remains regional, and many products complete channel construction through cooperation with local cultural tourism or local restaurants. This channel expansion is very costly, requiring higher-than-industry profits to be paid to partners or agents to achieve binding, which in turn raises the cost of products to the terminal, resulting in many stores selling single items at prices above 5 or 10 yuan, far higher than Coca-Cola or Pepsi, leading consumers to question whether it's a 'IQ tax.' Currently, under the leadership of Lan Shili, the former richest man in Hubei, Erchang Soda is accelerating its national strategic layout and has revealed plans to enter the capital market soon, aiming to become the first domestic soda stock. Industry insiders believe that fighting for the 'first domestic soda stock' can provide more ample 'ammunition' for expansion, while also effectively enhancing brand exposure. But for now, most domestic carbonated beverages have established strong moats in their regions, making it difficult for each other to break through in national expansion. Channels also face significant challenges, and with severe internal competition in the beverage industry, the road ahead is uncertain, and listing will face considerable pressure.