A few years ago, the beverage and beer industry saw a very common 'One More Bottle' (再来一瓶) promotional activity. Nowadays, this 'One More Bottle' seems to have disappeared, replaced by various buy-and-win or lottery promotions. Apart from increased labor and raw material costs, another crucial factor is that a 'big moth' emerged in this promotion industry, severely impacting manufacturers' profits, ultimately forcing them to stop. Today, we will specifically discuss the business chain of this moth model. "What is the logic behind 'One More Bottle'?" Everyone is familiar with the redemption method for 'One More Bottle': open the cap of a beverage or beer bottle, turn it over, and if it says 'One More Bottle' inside, you can exchange the cap for another bottle. The winning rate is typically very high. Its inventor is Master Kong (康师傅). In the summer of 2010, Master Kong initiated a large-scale promotion campaign in the industry: "15 billion bottles giveaway, One More Bottle!" Through this method, Master Kong significantly increased its market share that year, buying enough time to develop and nurture new products. Due to the success of the first year's marketing, Master Kong continued this approach in 2011. Subsequently, other beverage companies followed suit, including well-known brands like Red Bull and Uni-President Ice Tea, launching 'One More Bottle' promotions. Thus, 'One More Bottle' became a common and effective promotional tool in the beverage industry. However, as the influence expanded, especially after many beverage companies adopted this method, various unexpected situations began to emerge. Because each company plans in advance the quantity and timing of products allocated for 'One More Bottle' promotions each year. For example, if Red Bull's market target is to sell 60 million bottles, with a 20% winning probability, they might produce an additional 12 million bottles to fulfill 'One More Bottle' prizes, releasing them in several batches. Under normal circumstances, by year-end, 12 million caps should be returned to the manufacturer. But the result was surprising! One year, Red Bull received over 20 million 'One More Bottle' caps! So, how did this happen? "Who is profiting from this?" Typically, when consumers win, they redeem directly at the point of purchase, such as convenience stores, small shops, supermarkets, restaurants, etc. Retail outlets accumulate winning caps and then exchange them with their supplying distributors. Distributors, after redeeming for retail outlets, then exchange with their upstream distributors, and so on up to the primary distributor. Finally, the manufacturer directly provides an equivalent quantity of products to the primary distributor based on the number of caps. This logic seems sound, so how did the extra 10 million caps mentioned above come about? The main problem lies in the intermediate exchange links. Using the Red Bull case to explain: Suppose Red Bull has decided to produce 12 million bottles for 'One More Bottle' promotion this year, to be released in May and October. Someone with insider information about this promotion plan could contact cap manufacturers to produce a batch of counterfeit winning caps, then sell them to distributors at a significant discount, thereby making illegal profits. This logic is not complicated; the key is: why are cap manufacturers and distributors willing to participate in this counterfeit industry chain? A simple cost calculation will make it easy to understand the motivations of each party: Assume Red Bull's production cost per winning cap is 0.2 yuan. Counterfeiters might offer 0.4 yuan or even higher to suppliers to take the order. From the supplier's perspective, there is no reason to refuse such a deal because the profit is double that of other orders! From the distributor's perspective, they would also not refuse such a deal: If they purchase a product from the manufacturer at 2.5 yuan per unit, but can buy counterfeit 'One More Bottle' caps from intermediaries at 1.0 yuan each, and then exchange them with upstream distributors or the manufacturer for a product, they save 1.5 yuan per unit. Why not? For the 'counterfeiters' who initiate this deal, they can also earn 1.0 - 0.4 = 0.6 yuan per cap. Therefore, whether it's the cap manufacturers, counterfeiters, or distributors collecting caps, all can obtain high profits from this business, giving them ample incentive to collude in defrauding the manufacturers. Some might think these few yuan or cents are trivial, but you must know that the annual volume of FMCG beverages is staggering. Taking Red Bull as an example, the number of counterfeit caps each year is in the tens of millions, meaning that for just the Red Bull brand, counterfeiters can profit over 5-6 million yuan. If a counterfeiter handles several or even dozens of brands simultaneously, their annual income could reach 50-60 million yuan! Later, due to the increasing phenomenon of unscrupulous manufacturers mass-producing counterfeit winning caps for redemption, manufacturers began to notice the trick and gradually canceled this promotional method. Even some industry analysts, when studying the significant decline in Master Kong's beverage business in later years, partly attributed it to this large-scale, crude 'One More Bottle' promotion. Of course, objectively speaking, the gradual disappearance of 'One More Bottle' marketing activities is not only due to the hidden dangers caused by counterfeiting but also closely related to the shift in the industry's mainstream consumer group. Nowadays, fan economy has replaced price wars. Compared to extensive price promotions, beverage companies increasingly recognize that emotional resonance with consumers drives sales more persistently and loyally than promotions. Therefore, it is natural to replace price wars with fan operation strategies in practice. Source: Internet -END-