What FMCG Products Do Henan Residents Prefer Most During Spring Festival? -- 2017 Spring Festival Shopping Trends

A retail industry saying goes: one month of Spring Festival equals three months of sales. The importance of Spring Festival to the retail industry cannot be overstated. What did consumers buy during past Spring Festivals? What should be sold this year? Which products saw a Spring Festival surge in previous years? How did products in different price ranges perform? How should supermarkets choose promotional gifts? This report analyzes data from Henan region for the Spring Festival months and the preceding months in 2015 and 2016, revealing what happened in Henan supermarkets during the two Spring Festivals.

According to Jiemo Data, supermarkets in Henan counties and districts performed better overall in 2016 than in 2015. In 2016, snacks surpassed beverages to become the main driver of the Spring Festival shopping frenzy. Beverages themselves performed well, with a month-on-month increase of 112% in the 2016 Spring Festival month compared to the previous month. Grain and oil products were the first category to show signs of a sales surge. Alcohol and dairy products also saw high month-on-month growth, with particularly pronounced Spring Festival shopping characteristics. Cigarettes and alcohol are not discussed in detail (due to their special procurement and sales channels); the focus is on the three major categories: beverages, dairy products, and snacks.

Note:

Source: Jiemo Data (China's first and largest real-time product data analysis platform, centered on product SKUs, covering offline retail real transaction data, breaking information asymmetry in product circulation across regions and levels)

This is the county/district version. The parent data comes from 400 supermarket stores in Henan prefecture-level cities and counties, with store areas ranging from 1,000 to 8,000 square meters, under 50 brands. It compares their sales data for the 60 days from the 15th day of the 11th lunar month to the 15th day of the 1st lunar month, for reference by retail professionals.

1. Category Analysis

Note:

2015: Month before Spring Festival month (30 days): 15th of 11th lunar month to 15th of 12th lunar month; Spring Festival month (30 days): 16th of 12th lunar month to 15th of 1st lunar month

2016: Month before Spring Festival month (30 days): 15th of 11th lunar month to 14th of 12th lunar month; Spring Festival month (30 days): 15th of 12th lunar month to 15th of 1st lunar month

Same below.

Jiemo Data found that Henan's retail industry, benefiting from its population dividend, had very convincing absolute sales figures, as in previous years. The top 5 categories by sales were snacks, grain and oil products, beverages, personal care, and cigarettes.

From the total sales over the 60 days (from the 15th of the 11th lunar month to the 15th of the 1st lunar month), snacks became the largest category by sales share in 2016, surpassing beverages and contributing the main force to the Spring Festival sales surge.

Month-on-month growth rate refers to the increase of the Spring Festival month compared to the month before.

Among them, snacks had a growth rate of 84% in 2015 and 68% in 2016, a slight decline.

Beverages (excluding dairy) reached 112% in 2016, surpassing 104% in 2015. Dairy products are analyzed separately.

Although alcohol's share of total sales is not high, its month-on-month growth rate in the 2016 Spring Festival month reached 180%.

Categories such as cleaning and storage, home textiles, and small appliances saw smaller increases, consistent with the characteristics of previous Spring Festival shopping rushes.

2. Analysis of Three Major Categories: Beverages, Dairy Products, and Snacks

1. Beverages

A. Brand Analysis

Beverages were the top-selling category in the 2015 Spring Festival, but in 2016, overall sales lagged behind snacks. Overall, major brands still firmly occupy the rankings.

From the total sales over the 60 days (from the 15th of the 11th lunar month to the 15th of the 1st lunar month), it is noteworthy that Coca-Cola, Wahaha, and Huiyuan all saw their total sales decline in 2016 compared to 2015. Among the top ten brands, only Want Want maintained growth and surpassed Coca-Cola and Wahaha to become the sales pillar of beverages.

From the month-on-month growth rate, Want Want's sales in the 2016 Spring Festival month compared to the previous month increased by 755%, while Red Bull and Huiyuan increased by 402% and 359% respectively, performing well. Although Zhiliduo ranked seventh in sales share, its month-on-month growth rate in 2016 was negative.

B. Single Product Analysis by Brand

Among Coca-Cola's 8 better-performing products, 4 had a specification of 2L. Soda remains strong, and Minute Maid Pulpy Orange is the only non-soda product. Coca-Cola's lag behind Want Want in 2016 is mainly reflected in the following two aspects:

Comparing the 60-day totals of the two years (from the 15th of the 11th lunar month to the 15th of the 1st lunar month), Sprite Lemon Lime Soda 2L had the highest total in 2016, but its performance was still worse than in 2015. Minute Maid Pulpy Orange juice drink sales dropped to a quarter of 2015 levels, and the only bundled product, Sprite Lemon Lime Soda 2L + Fanta Orange Soda 2L, was one-third of 2015 levels. This bundled product was also the only product with a negative month-on-month growth rate in 2016, at -84%.

Products with higher month-on-month growth included Sprite Lemon Lime Soda 6x330ML, Fanta Orange Soda 6x330ML, and Sprite Lemon Lime Soda 2L, with increases of 532%, 436%, and 318% respectively. It is evident that Coca-Cola's Spring Festival promotions were not weak.

Among Uni-President's top 8 products, large specifications remained the main force.

In the 60-day total comparison, Assam Milk Tea and Uni-President Fresh Orange contributed significantly in 2016, but overall sales still declined compared to 2015. Uni-President Fresh Orange 2L had a month-on-month growth rate of 1379%, a notable promotional effort. Two specifications of Assam Milk Tea also saw significant increases in 2016, at 624% and 50%.

Overall, Huiyuan's 7 high-selling products performed consistently with their usual performance, maintaining good sales during the Spring Festival.

In the 60-day comparison, 6 products saw sales decline compared to 2015, with only Peach Pulp Drink surpassing 2015 sales and ranking first in total share. Although Huiyuan 100% Juice (composite paper packaging) had the largest total decline, it topped the list with a 1363% month-on-month growth rate, followed by Peach Pulp Drink at 1196%, making them the Huiyuan products with the largest increases in the 2016 Spring Festival month.

2. Dairy Products

A. Brand Analysis

In the dairy product ranking, Yili and Mengniu hold half of the market, with brands like Yangyuan, Bright, Junlebao, and Huahuaniu sharing the rest, showing little difference from the usual supermarket sales market share.

Looking at the 60-day totals, except for Yili and Mengniu, all other brands saw overall sales decline in 2016 compared to 2015, with Huahuaniu and Beingmate showing the most obvious declines.

The month-on-month growth rate reveals that Beingmate's Spring Festival month increase in Henan supermarkets was particularly insufficient, at -5%; Weiwei reversed its negative growth rate in 2015, with sales in the 2016 Spring Festival month increasing by 6% compared to the previous month. Yangyuan, Wandashan, and Bright were the three brands with the largest month-on-month increases, reaching 345%, 332%, and 183% respectively. Yili, Mengniu, and Huahuaniu showed stable month-on-month growth rates in both Spring Festival months.

B. Single Product Analysis by Brand

Premium Six Walnuts ranked first in both 60-day total and month-on-month growth rate, and like Zhihui Health Six Walnuts and Added Lecithin Six Walnuts, its 2016 sales performance surpassed 2015.

Ambrosial Greek Yogurt and Jindian Pure Milk remain Yili's strong products. It is noteworthy that except for Ambrosial and Jindian Pure Milk, the 60-day totals of other products were worse than in 2015. Nutritional Shuhua Milk - Low Fat became the product with the highest month-on-month growth in the 2016 Spring Festival month, with an increase of 365%.

Mengniu's Telunsu Pure Milk had the highest contribution rate, while Pure Zhen Yogurt and Telunsu Fiber Milk surpassed 2015 sales significantly, with the latter's Spring Festival month growth reaching 306%.

3. Snacks

A. Brand Analysis

Snacks are the largest sub-category within the primary category. The top ten brands are all well-known first-tier brands. Baixiang, a local Henan brand, ranks 9th, with Mars and Orion taking the top three spots.

In the 60 days (from the 15th of the 11th lunar month to the 15th of the 1st lunar month), except for Want Want and Master Kong, the other 8 major brands performed better in 2016 than in 2015. Baixiang and Panpan's 2016 sales were nearly 4 times and nearly 2 times their 2015 sales, showing rapid growth.

From the month-on-month growth rate, only Want Want had a negative growth rate of -1% in the 2016 Spring Festival month. Hsu Fu Chi, Master Kong, and Mars had the largest month-on-month increases, at 209%, 135%, and 101% respectively.

B. Single Product Analysis by Brand

Want Want's gift pack became a star product during the Spring Festival, with impressive total volume and a 1022% month-on-month growth in the Spring Festival month. Even so, its overall sales still fell short of 2015.

Orion's performance was similar to Want Want's, with only Mushroom Chocolate Hazelnut Decorated Biscuits and Ah! Potato showing outstanding sales in 2016, and Haoduoyu Rich Tomato Flavor having the highest month-on-month growth at 90%.

Panpan's performance was relatively stable, with little difference between the two years' Spring Festival sales. Only 1.2kg Original Pork Floss Cake and Lemon-flavored Menier Dry Cake declined compared to 2015, while Menier Dry Cake (Milk Flavor) saw a month-on-month growth of 158%. It is worth noting that in 2015, Panpan's major products all had high month-on-month growth rates, but in 2016, promotional efforts were relatively smaller.

3. Price Range Analysis

(This section does not include cigarettes and alcohol)

The line chart shows an M-shape, with clear sales totals across different price ranges: the 5-10 yuan and 50-70 yuan price ranges are the main contributors to sales. The 20-30 yuan price range has significantly lower total sales.

Source: Jiemo Data (China's first and largest real-time product data analysis platform, centered on product SKUs, covering offline retail real transaction data, breaking information asymmetry in product circulation across regions and levels)

This report provides a data analysis basis for Henan supermarkets to prepare for the upcoming 2017 Spring Festival shopping rush. This version is the county/district version; the urban version and versions for other provinces will be released successively.

Due to space limitations, for the full national data, please visit data.jiemo.me

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