In recent years, due to transformation, I have been less involved in traditional marketing. Recently, I returned to frontline marketing and was deeply disappointed. Overall, Chinese marketing has made little progress since 2010. At best, it's stagnant; at worst, it's regressed or even degenerated. This is not a denial of individual marketers but a judgment on the whole. This corresponds to the current situation of declining sales and weak new product launches, and there is a causal relationship. Chinese marketing is now at a loss: facing both internet impact and sales ceiling pressure, it basically cannot find effective solutions. To maintain sales, too many policies are given, disrupting the sales rhythm. Most marketers I've met are dissatisfied with the status quo, but individuals find it hard to change it. Even small changes encounter systemic resistance. I call this phenomenon the symbiotic structure of marketing. For example, many people want to launch new products and know that without changing the product structure, it's hard to reverse the situation. But when new products are actually launched, they find that the whole system does not support new product launches, especially those that are "mainstream gear shifting" new products. In a backward system, everyone may have the will to change, but they are powerless to change the system, and finally are forced to return to the status quo. In the marketing field, this forms a symbiotic structure. A symbiotic structure can be positive or negative. A symbiotic structure that has not made significant progress for a long time is usually negative. Who is responsible for marketing regression? It seems no one can be held accountable, because everyone has the will to change and has made efforts to change. It's hard to blame any individual. A symbiotic structure without a responsible person is truly frightening. It's not just one company; at least in the FMCG sector, companies are generally not much better. I originally thought using the word "degenerate" would offend some marketers, but unexpectedly some are willing to claim it. Since "degenerate" may carry moral connotations, I finally named the article "regression."

Phenomena of Regression My benchmark is around 2010. Compared to then, there are several changes on the marketing frontline:

  1. Distribution (delivery) efficiency has decreased. For example, with vehicle sales, before 2010, each day could cover more than 10 terminal outlets for distribution (delivery), now it's down to 5-6. Only those doing visit sales are exceptions, reaching over 20 per day.
  2. Distribution cycles have lengthened. Now a one-week distribution cycle is considered good, many have half-month cycles, and some even longer. Before 2010, we often talked about a five-day cycle or even shorter. Of course, some say the longer cycle is due to increased volume per order, which makes sense.
  3. Distribution overly relies on policies. No policy, no distribution has become the norm for many brands. Every month there must be a distribution policy, otherwise goods won't move. Policy-based distribution is actually stocking. In the past, policy distribution usually had no returns, but now with poor market conditions, distribution often turns into returns, and the near-expiry products need to be handled.
  4. Terminal promotion is basically unseen. Around 2010, we proposed terminal promotion after deep distribution, but it seems few companies do it now.
  5. Terminal coverage rate has declined. Because distribution efficiency has decreased, it's impossible to cover all terminals under normal circumstances. So, except for large terminals with policy distribution, small terminals have no time or policy for distribution, relying only on second-tier distributors. Second-tier radiation is basically unguaranteed.
  6. New product launch has become more difficult. With declining sales, new product launch is already harder, and without terminal promotion, even if new products reach terminals, sales are difficult. From a technical perspective, frontline sales have entered a negative cycle, such as policy stocking consuming policies. Excessive stocking requires returns and handling, consuming time and costs. But everyone is doing it; can you be an exception? The above is only technical regression; the biggest regression is psychological. With no hope for sales growth or efficiency improvement, both agents and salespeople don't know how to move forward.

Reasons for Regression Chinese marketing has changed a lot over the years, but the trajectory has been consistent, on the same track. Since 1998, there have been roughly two main tracks. One track is that mainstream products have basically remained unchanged, but varieties have greatly enriched. From 1998 to 2013, China's mainstream products were basically finalized. Most products selling well now can trace their origins to this period. With mainstream products set, product enrichment became the main direction of R&D. Therefore, so-called new product development and promotion are not truly new products with essential differences, but disguised pseudo-new products. More varieties and more choices are beneficial for sales growth. Now varieties have been greatly enriched, to the point that for vehicle sales, it's hard to carry all varieties each time. Each agent has at least 100 SKUs, some over 1000, and still using vehicle sales. So, it's not that we don't launch new products, but that even old products are hard to manage; variety has become a burden. Second, channel sinking and deep distribution have reached the bottom. Whether admitted or not, channel changes are the main theme of Chinese marketing. After 1998, channels sank from provincial to city to county agents. After 2003, county agents became the basic pattern. Then came deep distribution, which reached the bottom around 2010. After that, terminal promotion, which most companies failed to do. When Master Kong launched "Old Tan Pickled Cabbage" instant noodles, it was accompanied by "terminal promotion," and it was one of the few companies that benefited from terminal promotion. However, terminal promotion is organizationally difficult and costly, and most companies didn't do it. From the above, it can be seen that the two tracks of Chinese marketing changes have not changed significantly in the past. Even if there are changes, they are within the tracks, not off-track. This is not qualitative change but quantitative change. Changes within the track are generally easy for companies to keep up with, after all, they are not fundamental, but many companies still fall behind. When the two marketing tracks reach their limits, the evolution of marketing basically stagnates, or even regresses.

Switching Marketing Tracks Traditional marketing methods reached their limits within the original tracks around 2010, and traditional product sales peaked in 2013 (after 2014, most saw "double decline" in sales and profits). Additionally, rising distribution and personnel costs reduced marketing efficiency. Without jumping out of the original marketing tracks, marketing regression is inevitable. First, since original product sales have peaked, we should launch "mainstream gear shifting" new products; only new products can improve the product structure. Perhaps sales won't increase, but profit improvement is still useful. Second, since the efficiency of original methods has declined, we should adopt methods that improve efficiency. For example, distribution efficiency and cycle issues can be solved with SaaS or B2B platforms. Some companies are clear about what the marketing community should do now. One is to create new strategic big products, and the other is to embrace the internet and do "+internet." I always thought these two tasks are not difficult, at least technically, and those who have done them have tasted the benefits, but surprisingly few learn from them. Strange!

The Symbiotic Structure of Marketing The hardest thing for an individual to change is habits; the hardest for a group is collective habits. Habits are behaviors without thinking or with simple thinking. In front of habits, knowledge seems so pale, because habits are done unconsciously. Since 1998, Chinese marketing has been operating inertially on two tracks. Although there have been big changes, the two main tracks have basically remained unchanged. This means that Chinese marketing habits have not changed significantly for over 15 years. Although there are small operational changes, the big habits have not changed. These habits are not only formed by the marketing departments of companies, but also by R&D, production, and service departments. Also by external agents and retailers. This is a symbiotic system. The biggest problem with a symbiotic structure is that any partial or individual change is difficult because it is constrained by the symbiotic system. It's like on a one-way highway, if you suddenly turn, others may see you as going against traffic and may collide at any time. The biggest obstacle to switching marketing tracks is actually the long-formed symbiotic structure in marketing. To be honest, I can only raise the problem; I have no magic solution to break the symbiotic structure. My personal marketing transformation took a long time. From my past transformation experience, normal promotion is definitely difficult. For a new thing, before it succeeds, it's easy to come up with many reasons against it. There can be thousands of reasons for failure, but only one is enough for success. What if there is only one reason? Taking new product launch as an example, I think the initial step is to bypass all sales levels and directly reach consumers. As long as consumers accept it, all opposing reasons are invalid. This method is a forced approach, and it works every time.

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