2016 is already more than half over, and retail companies have been releasing their 2016 interim reports. Yesterday (August 19), Walmart released its Q2 2016 earnings, which beat expectations, with China sales up 2.3% in the quarter. This also confirms a recent Kantar report: "In Q2, FMCG grew 4.6% year-on-year, compared to 2.0% in Q1, indicating a market recovery. Modern trade (hypermarkets, supermarkets, and convenience stores) saw a slight rebound in Q2 after a 0.5% dip in Q1, with sales up 1.4% year-on-year." Below, Food Business has compiled the H1 performance overview of four major retailers and supermarkets: Walmart, Carrefour, Yonghui Superstores, and Lotus. (Note: Since China Resources Vanguard, Metro, and Lotte Mart have not yet disclosed their H1 results, we cannot include them.) Also included is the store footprint of seven major supermarket chains in China for H1 2016.
Retailer & Supermarket H1 2016 Performance
Retail Enterprise (in RMB 100 million)
| Retail Supermarket | H1 2016 Revenue | YoY Growth | H1 2016 Net Profit | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart | 15703.15 | — | 480.9 | — |
| Carrefour | 2704.47 | -3.8% | 9.58 | -40% |
| Yonghui Superstores | 245.20 | 17.69% | 6.69 | 26.98% |
| Lotus | — | — | 0.32 | — |
[Walmart] On August 19, Walmart released its Q2 2016 earnings. The report shows Q2 revenue of $120.85 billion, versus expectations of $120.31 billion. U.S. same-store sales (excluding fuel) rose 1.6% in Q2, versus expectations of 1%. In China, Walmart said that with the accelerated expansion of its national store network, business sales continued to grow in the quarter. In Q2, Walmart's total sales in China grew more than 2.3%, and comparable average ticket size grew 5%.
[Carrefour] On July 28, the world's second-largest retailer Carrefour reported that its H1 net profit fell more than 40% year-on-year to €130 million (about $143 million), slightly below market expectations. Quarterly sales fell 4.1% year-on-year to €20.5 billion, with €9.86 billion from France and €10.6 billion from international operations.
[Yonghui Superstores] Yonghui Superstores issued a performance forecast: It expects H1 2016 revenue of about RMB 24.52 billion, up about 17.69% year-on-year. It expects H1 net profit of about RMB 669 million, up about 26.98% year-on-year. In the same period last year, profit was RMB 527 million.
[Lotus] Compared with a profit of about RMB 32.9 million in the same period of 2015, the Group expects a loss for the six months ended June 30, 2016. Lotus Chairman Xie Jiren revealed in the Group's 2015 annual report that it plans to open 6-8 stores in 2016.
Since last year, the retail industry has been rife with news of store closures. As one of the main retail sectors, how are supermarkets actually performing? The research center below reveals the store footprint of seven major supermarket chains in China for H1 2016 (Walmart, Yonghui Superstores, China Resources Vanguard, Carrefour, Lotte Mart, Lotus, and Metro). Which supermarket brand has the most stores in China? Which city has the most stores?
1. Expansion pace of the seven major supermarkets slows
As of H1 2016, the total number of stores of the seven major supermarket brands in China exceeded 1,500. The growth rate of total stores fell from 6.2% at the end of 2015 to 0.3% in H1 2016, indicating that the expansion pace of the seven major supermarkets continues to slow.
2. East China stands out
The seven major supermarkets cover 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, and 212 cities. By region, East China ranks first, with its total store count equal to the sum of Northeast, North China, and South China. By city tier, 47% of stores are concentrated in second-tier cities, with more than half of those in provincial capitals such as Chongqing, Xi'an, Fuzhou, Chengdu, Tianjin, Suzhou, and Hefei.
3. Chongqing ranks first in store count
According to the total store count of the seven major supermarkets by city, Chongqing has 118 stores, ranking first among 212 cities. All seven major supermarkets have stores in Chongqing, indicating high brand concentration. Among them, Yonghui Superstores accounts for 71% of the stores. Shanghai ranks second with 84 stores, with Walmart, Carrefour, and Lotus each having more than 15 stores.
4. Yonghui Superstores is on the rise
As the hypermarket market approaches saturation, supermarkets focusing on segmented business formats are developing rapidly. For example, Yonghui Superstores, which focuses on fresh produce, has seen its total store count grow at a rate as high as 20% in recent years due to the lack of large chain fresh supermarket competitors. In H1 2016, its total store count reached 344, second only to Walmart, far exceeding the other five supermarkets. Looking at recent expansion paths, second-tier cities are its main expansion market, with more than 40% of new stores opened each year located in second-tier cities.
5. Walmart leads the seven major supermarkets
In H1 2016, Walmart's total store count in China reached 365, continuing to lead the other six supermarkets. The growth rate of total stores fell from 6% at the end of 2015 to -2% in H1 2016. Although the total store count declined in H1, according to Walmart's opening plan, it will expand at a rate of about 35 stores per year from 2016 to 2017, indicating that Walmart's new store expansion is expected to be relatively active in the future.
Looking at the distribution of stores by city tier, Walmart's store layout has already penetrated into third- and fourth-tier cities. As of H1 2016, Walmart's stores covered 139 cities in China, with 47% of stores in third- and fourth-tier cities. At the same time, 67% of new stores opened in H1 2016 were also in third- and fourth-tier cities. However, from the perspective of the number of Walmart stores per city, the number in third- and fourth-tier cities is only 2, significantly lower than in first- and second-tier cities, indicating large growth potential. Therefore, under Walmart's aggressive expansion strategy, third- and fourth-tier cities will continue to be Walmart's main expansion channel.
Data compilation: Food Business; Source: Yingshi Group Research Center
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