Since 2016, when rumors of Red Bull's trademark expiration surfaced, controversies have been rife. As early as August last year, news that China Red Bull's trademark authorization would expire in 2016 had already leaked, but China Red Bull officials never made a direct response. Even today, officials have remained silent on the topic. However, on June 30, an official Weibo post gave sensitive industry insiders a glimpse of the situation. Red Bull's official Weibo announced that from June 30, 2017 to December 31, 2017, it would invest 197.8 million yuan in a nationwide "red envelope rain" campaign. With a fund of 198.7 million yuan and a campaign lasting half a year, and according to reports that ORG (O.R.G. Packaging) also received large orders from Red Bull and increased production, does this massive market investment after nearly a year of silence mean that the rumors of "disappearing from the Chinese market" are unfounded? Netizens are buzzing with discussions, speculating whether the trademark case has been resolved favorably, and whether onlookers should stop worrying about Red Bull. In my view, Red Bull will not die, and distributors need not blindly stockpile or worry excessively. To that end, I have compiled four clues indicating that Red Bull will not leave China, for reference only. Clue 1: Sudden large-scale investment It is well known that December, near the Chinese New Year, is a crucial period for the food and beverage industry, marking a small peak season throughout the year. However, with the trademark issue unresolved, in December 2016, Red Bull did not invest any funds in its products. According to a Red Bull salesperson, "During CNY (Chinese New Year), for all channels, as long as normal shelf sales of Red Bull Original are maintained, it's fine; the displays focus on new products (like Capri-Sun, Vita Coco, VOSS, and other new products under Reignwood Group). After receiving notice in mid-January 2017, regions can resume normal product sales"—meaning Red Bull's "status" had been extended by Reignwood, which was quite different from previous years. This time, at the mid-year point of June 30, Red Bull announced a large market investment covering the entire second half of the year, which is indeed significant. It is clear to any discerning eye that Reignwood's predicament has been somewhat resolved. Clue 2: Giving up a profitable Red Bull is unlikely It is reported that Reignwood has high hopes for Red Bull, even setting a three-year plan specifically for it, aiming for annual sales of 50 billion yuan by the end of 2017. However, in 2014, Red Bull's annual sales were 20 billion yuan, meaning a 150% growth in three years. If China Red Bull fails to obtain the trademark authorization from Thai Red Bull, everything would be different. 2015 performance data shows Capri-Sun at 231 million yuan and Vita Coco at 100 million yuan, which seem insignificant compared to the abundant cash flow of 23.07 billion yuan that Red Bull brought to Reignwood Group. As a tiger under Reignwood's product line, with the new product Warrior (Zhanma) receiving a lukewarm market response, Red Bull still maintains its strong market influence. According to industry insiders, "Reignwood Group is unlikely to give up China Red Bull, as among all its current beverage products, Red Bull is the only one making money." Clue 3: The three parties are not ready to "break up" Outside China, Red Bull comes in silver, slim cans, while China Red Bull uses gold, short, fat cans. In the eyes of Chinese consumers, Austrian Red Bull and Thai Red Bull are both "knockoffs." Austrian Red Bull entered China in 2014, establishing a company called Ruibu Beverage Trading (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. Two years later, it has made no waves in the Chinese market. The high price of Austrian Red Bull also makes it unacceptable to Chinese consumers. Austrian Red Bull lacks the strength to fully take over the Chinese market, and neither Thai Red Bull nor China Red Bull is prepared for a split. Clue 4: The lesson from JDB (Jia Duo Bao) Seeing the current situation in the herbal tea market, the Thai side has also heard about it. Do they want this market or not? Certainly they want it. But how? If the Thai side and the Chinese side go for broke, it would be better not to have it. If Austrian Red Bull and China Red Bull were to clearly split, it would mean fighting against themselves. Moreover, more and more functional beverage brands are rising in the Chinese market, such as Dongpeng, Lehu, Heika, etc., often engaging in price wars. If Red Bull splits first, it would certainly give other brands an opportunity. Of course, there is also the possibility that through such a move, they could encourage the entire Chinese beverage industry to produce functional drinks, suddenly inflating the category, and then Red Bull could come back to clean up the market. 1 Commentary by Lao Na: The annual drama "Where Is Red Bull Going?" still has no conclusion. However, during the warm-up of this drama, Reignwood discovered that Warrior, Shenbeilu, Capri-Sun, and Vita Coco are not easy to sell, and bottled products are not as easy to launch as one might think. The same team, different brands, yet vastly different results. We do not doubt Reignwood's execution capability, but securing the right to use the Red Bull brand is the best path. From Reignwood's series of actions, they are not prepared to lose Red Bull. Walking on one leg, especially a borrowed one, it is better to endure for a while when forced. In the future, if they adjust their direction, they might be able to stand up to Thailand. In this turmoil, Reignwood Group effectively played a game of hunger marketing. First, they cleared inventory, then drove the entire beverage industry into a frenzy, helping them open up the market. Now that inventory is cleared and the market is bigger, Reignwood is coming to seize territory. This marketing move was quite brilliant. It must be noted that China Red Bull has been stuck at around 30 billion yuan for too long. Without nationwide action, Red Bull would face decline. This time, whether intentional or not, they have expanded the functional beverage market. 2 Commentary by Zhu Danpeng: Red Bull's major move indicates that Reignwood has completely resolved the trademark issue. This settles the hearts of all Red Bull channel strategic partners, clarifies Red Bull's mid-to-long-term strategy, and dampens the spirits of all competitors. The suspense and concepts of how to seize the post-Red Bull era in China's energy drink market have been shattered. However, given that various contenders are already sharpening their swords, a bloody battle in China's energy drink market in 2017 is inevitable. In 2017, Red Bull will still stand out, but the battle for the second place remains uncertain. Welcome to leave comments below for discussion. -END-