Click to read the original article for details**** Do you have a feeling that business is particularly difficult this year? Almost every company around us is talking about poor business, stagnation, or even decline. From a macro perspective, although major FMCG companies are still growing in sales revenue, a closer look at sales volumes reveals that most brands are actually declining. When talking with people around, on one hand there is deep anxiety; on the other hand, it seems everyone has tacitly accepted this new normal of decline. Where is the problem? Some say it's caused by the internet, such as community group buying, Douyin, and internet-famous brands; others say it's due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with stores closing and people afraid to go out; still others say it's because companies themselves are failing to keep up, with aging products being eliminated by competition. The list goes on. Behind all these phenomena, one issue is reflected: From an economic perspective, any commodity and information cannot escape supply and demand. The core of today's problems is that while market demand hasn't changed much, supply is no longer scarce but severely过剩. Whether it's information or goods, no matter how you obtain information or where you buy things, it's all extremely convenient and abundant. What were the marketing characteristics of the industrial civilization era? Built on scarcity: whatever consumers lack, brands satisfy. This gave rise to a generation of consumer goods giants: Nestlé, Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, and so on. Since the transition from industrial civilization to information civilization, all previous methods have failed. The pleasure that material goods bring is diminishing, and people are becoming increasingly picky. In fact, when material goods and information are no longer scarce, users' consumption logic undergoes a fundamental change compared to before. From a consumption perspective, what are the three hottest words this year? "New demographics, new products, new tracks." Let me explain these three keywords with my understanding: 1. New demographics: New middle class, small-town youth, Generation Z: behind these are the three contradictions of income, urban-rural divide, and demographics. The original market still exists, but new classes are increasingly asserting their influence. Jiang Nanchun described this generation's changes at the New Distribution Conference with an interesting viewpoint: "Love beauty, love play, love health; fear aging, fear death, fear loneliness; lack love, lack mood, lack self." 2. New products: Emotion, health, social, addiction: this represents that people are no longer satisfied with Maslow's basic needs but are beginning to pursue a higher quality of life. " Users are starting to pursue refinement, not quality; spiritual satisfaction, not material function; standing out, not conforming; wanting, not needing. ____ " 3. New tracks: Short video live streaming, private domain e-commerce, same-city retail: this represents the official arrival of the DTC era, where companies can directly connect with consumers on a massive scale through new infrastructure. What we see is a structural change in consumer demographics, diversified consumption upgrades, and technology-driven shortening of supply chains. These changes are not particularly difficult for innovative brands. However, for traditional brands with huge brand assets, product sales, and partner networks, adapting to this new consumption wave seems not so easy. Facing change, people initially have an instinctive anxiety. After prolonged anxiety, they become numb and treat the change as an elephant in the room. I remember a certain big influencer on Douyin said: In this wave of new consumption and digitalization, perhaps 70% of companies will be eliminated. I scoffed at that, wondering where he got that 70%, but it's undeniable that the real environment has a huge impact on physical businesses. However, we also see many manufacturers and distributors acting swiftly and adjusting their state quickly amid changes. I summarize these actions into three words: "Pay attention to change, seize trends, create value." 1. Pay attention to change We cannot exhaust all information every day; we can only do our best to pay attention to industry changes. We don't necessarily have to do something about these changes, but we need to be aware of them—that's the basic requirement. Moreover, we must not only know the changes but also see through the business logic behind them. Over the years, New Distribution has been trying to abstract various models from external changes, with the aim of seeing the patterns behind things amid change, and then judging how to make choices based on those patterns. △ Image source: Official account "Liu Run" _ 2. Seize trends What is a trend? A trend is not an individual change but an overall change. If one person shops online, or a new business model emerges, that's a change. But if a group of people goes online, and under a new business model, a large number of successful companies emerge, that's a trend. Some say the sauce-flavored liquor business has been profitable in the past two years. I think that's a change, but the fact that young people no longer drink high-proof liquor is a trend. Under this trend, you should look at alcohol consumption; low-alcohol drinks are the future. Of course, not everyone can grasp this trend; it requires long-term attention to industry changes. Based on changes, we judge which are real trends and which are fake business models. Of course, it's likely that by the time we see it, there may be few opportunities left. But then we need to think about the most important question: What value can I create within this industry's change cycle and new trends? 3. Create value What is value? At its core, value is the unique and scarce experience we can create and provide for users in this competitive business environment. In the supply chain, it's about improving efficiency, reducing costs, having what others don't, and excelling where others have. Creating value is built on paying attention to industry changes, seizing the trends of the times, acting accordingly, and creating and satisfying demand. The process of creating value doesn't require constantly changing with every change, but rather finding the points that can remain unchanged amid these huge variables, persistently optimizing, and making ourselves better. In this new wave, all value is related to these three keywords: shortening distance, expanding connections, precision and efficiency. Behind this is the transformation of enterprise connection models, organizational models, management models, and business models. We must pay attention to these changes, as they are one of the important trends in future marketing and a key focus for large enterprises in recent years. In September, the China FMCG Conference organized annually by New Distribution will be held as scheduled. We have invited many industry experts and teachers to provide as many industry cases and solutions as possible for manufacturers and distributors regarding the changes and trends of the past year, hoping to help our friends in the industry no longer feel lost in the new era. Welcome everyone to follow. PS: From September 23 to 25, 2021, the 2021 (4th) China FMCG Conference hosted by "New Distribution" will kick off in Shanghai. Focusing on industry trends + practical cases + growth connections as the core, 3,000 FMCG practitioners will gather at the event. 10 themed forums cover new retail O2O, community group buying, short video live streaming e-commerce, distributor transformation, rise of new consumer brands, new alcoholic beverage interpretation, distribution B2B supply chain, omni-channel marketing, B2B2C new technology applications, etc., with operators from various segments bringing the latest case interpretations. Some of the confirmed heavyweight guests so far include: **1. Tao Shiquan, founder of Jiangxiaobai; **2. Yao Xuhong, general manager of Meiyijia Holdings Co., Ltd.; **3. Lu Xiuqiong, global expert partner at Bain & Company and former vice president of marketing for Coca-Cola China; **4. Chen Xiaodong, senior vice president of Nestlé Greater China; **5. Zhang Fujun, president of Lee Kum Kee Sauce Group China; **6. Bi Chaojiao, general manager of China Resources Snow Breweries (China) Marketing Center; **7. Yang Hongbin, vice president of Junlebao Dairy Group; **8. Yang Shun, COO of Lipton Greater China; 9. Zhang Yipeng, general manager of Kuaishou E-commerce SKA Brand Operations Center; 10. Li De, e-commerce general manager of Gold Hong Ye Paper Group.... A grand gathering for FMCG professionals—you must be there! Are you "watching" me?