We seem to be heading towards an 'unmanned era'! Amazon's drones, JD.com's unmanned warehouses, Alibaba's unmanned supermarkets, Baidu's self-driving cars, Siemens' unmanned factories... The endless stream of 'unmanned X technologies' is dazzling and overwhelming! These rapidly evolving technologies, while bringing us surprises and convenience, also fill our hearts with panic and anxiety. We can't help but question: In the 'unmanned era', what need is there for so many people? Indeed, a taxi driver who toils day and night, upon seeing the news about self-driving cars, will worry about how much longer his job will last. A small shop owner of a community retail store, after experiencing the service of an unmanned supermarket, will hesitate whether to convert the store into a restaurant. Even a mother who has just become pregnant with her second child, upon learning about the many 'unmanned technologies', will be anxious about whether to give birth to the child... The uncertainty about the future world makes people anxious and panicked, and it also makes them think: With the advent of the 'unmanned era', what can humans do? 1 The 'People' Behind the 'Unmanned' There is an old saying: When God closes a door, he opens a window. If we look back from today's vantage point, we will find that the progress of human technology has always been like this, and today's 'unmanned technology' is not much different. For example, since the last century, cars on the road have gradually replaced horse-drawn carriages, CNC machine tools in factories have gradually replaced traditional machine tools, projectors in classrooms have replaced chalk and blackboards, self-service supermarkets in markets have replaced traditional sales counters, and electronic systems in exchanges have replaced the 'red vests' (floor traders). These changes that have already occurred have also brought huge impacts to practitioners and subverted traditional work patterns. However, each of these past changes, while eliminating original positions, also created a large number of new employment opportunities. Take securities trading as an example. When the 'electronic trading matching system' in stock exchanges replaced the manual matching method of traditional 'floor traders' (red vests), the 'red vests' withdrew from the historical stage. However, the new positions that emerged around the 'electronic trading system', such as software programmers, system maintenance personnel, and the IT equipment (computers, communications, servers, storage) purchased for using the electronic trading system, and the new job opportunities generated around these facilities and equipment, far exceeded the number of former 'red vests'. Similarly, behind various 'unmanned' technical solutions, there are countless 'manned' positions that keep them running and drive their iterative development. For example, behind the popularity of unmanned supermarkets, the research and manufacturing of RFID tags, refrigeration and fresh-keeping equipment, sensors, etc., driven by this new technology, as well as the development of new technologies such as big data, precise positioning, and facial recognition, will generate a large number of new job opportunities and create greater social wealth and value. Another example: After JD.com developed automatic replenishment technology, it massively laid off traditional procurement and order tracking personnel, replacing them with a large number of data analysts and software developers. They analyze customer consumption patterns based on the massive data generated online every day, optimize inventory allocation plans, and design algorithms for optimal routes... As the business scale continues to expand, the number of these new positions may even exceed the number of personnel previously laid off. So, since 'unmanned technology' still requires a large number of 'manned' work to maintain, what is the real significance of 'unmanned technology'? In fact, 'unmanned technology' is an eternal ideal of humanity. Its true purpose is to help humans escape from repetitive, inefficient, high-cost, low-output work, or to stay away from dangerous work that contains uncertainty. Humans gradually hand over this part of work to machines, and instead devote more energy to work that is high value-added, high-output, and can bring greater contributions to human development. This is actually part of the development and self-evolution of human society. This trend has not changed since primitive humans learned to use tools. Therefore, we have no need to be in a panic, nor should we worry about whether our unborn children will be unemployed in the future! 2 Survival Abilities in Future Society In fact, the key factor that determines whether children will be unemployed in the future is by no means 'unmanned technology', but whether they possess the abilities to take on those 'manned' jobs in the future. These abilities include: continuous learning ability, ability to withstand pressure and self-motivation, and ability to drive change and communicate. First is continuous learning ability. As we see today, it is difficult for any professional skill to last a lifetime. When the next 'unmanned technology' replaces our current job, whether we have the ability to master and be competent for the new job position requires us to continuously learn throughout our lives to ensure we are not abandoned by the times. Second is the ability to withstand pressure and self-motivate. The pace of social development will become faster and faster. What was a novel technical solution yesterday may become worthless tomorrow. Rapid development brings enormous pressure to people. Whether one can withstand this pressure, continuously self-motivate, and maintain a good mindset in competition is an important ability for survival in future society. Finally, the ability to drive change and communicate. Innovation and change complement each other. The emergence and implementation of new technologies require us to have creativity and the ability to drive change. The biggest resistance to change is often 'people' rather than 'technology'. This is a job centered around 'people', requiring interaction with different 'people', so strong communication skills are needed. The future elite will definitely be those who lead and drive change, not those who wait to accept change and passively bear the consequences of change. Here, we have not mentioned any technical skills because they are not the focus. The real focus is whether we and our next generation possess the personal qualities and abilities to adapt to the development of future society. Unfortunately, these abilities are often lacking in the current Chinese-style education. 3 Reflections on 'Artificial Intelligence' Regarding the concerns about the 'unmanned era', there is another viewpoint worth considering: whether the development of artificial intelligence will bring catastrophe to humanity. This inevitably brings to mind the world-renowned physicist Stephen Hawking, who once predicted that 'artificial intelligence can help humanity and can also destroy it.' He further explained: 'Humans cannot know whether we will be infinitely helped by AI, or ignored, sidelined, or destroyed by it. Once AI breaks free from constraints and redesigns itself for evolution, humans, limited by slow biological evolution, will not be able to compete and will eventually be replaced.' The author believes that any new technology is a double-edged sword, reflecting human nature: it is both greedy and restrained. Just like the application of nuclear technology, it can bring clean energy, but it can also be made into nuclear weapons that destroy humanity. After the chaotic use from World War II to the Cold War, humanity eventually returned to reason, sealing away nuclear weapons through the 'Non-Proliferation Treaty', and focusing the application research of nuclear technology on the energy field. We have reason to believe that the development of 'unmanned technology' will follow a similar pattern. In the early stage, it will be rapid even barbaric disorderly development; after reaching the 'singularity' of technological development, it may trigger a series of negative effects, possibly even local disasters; after the disaster, humanity will reflect on itself and the application of new technology, and eventually return to the track of restrained technology use. In this regard, on the one hand, we should be vigilant and use a series of means to avoid the disasters predicted by scientists; on the other hand, we should not be complacent or timid, but should continue to make breakthroughs and progress in areas that can bring benefits to humanity! 4 Don't Ignore 'Human Emotions' In fact, the rapidly developing 'unmanned technology' also has its fatal flaw: how to cater to the emotional needs of customers as 'human beings'. This is an insurmountable hurdle for 'unmanned technology'. Just like many customers who walk into a retail store, their purpose is not simply to buy a bottle of mineral water or a pack of melon seeds, but to chat with the shop owner, talk about family matters, and discuss local customs... And 'unmanned supermarkets' cannot solve this type of customer need. Even if a robot with artificial intelligence were used as a salesperson in an 'unmanned supermarket', it is unimaginable that a customer would be willing to chat about private and gossipy matters with such a robot. The customer might worry that these chat records might bring them some adverse effects one day. The development of human society is inherently diverse, not a zero-one game. It is not either you or me, nor is it a matter of life and death. No matter how 'unmanned technology' develops, as long as humans still live on this earth, there will always be 'unmanned' or 'manned' solutions suitable for different scenarios and different groups of people. But one thing is certain: the future development of 'unmanned technology' will definitely bring us more surprises and convenience, and the accompanying pressure will continue to make us anxious and fearful. However, it will also make us reflect, keep improving, and even evolve! Source: Supply Chain Architect (ID: SCM_art) -END-