Taiwan Council of Agriculture Deputy Minister Huang Jincheng News Flash: On Wednesday afternoon, October 31, Taiwan's Council of Agriculture announced that a discarded mainland-made sausage at Kinmen port was confirmed to contain African swine fever virus, matching the strain in mainland China exactly. Deputy Minister Huang Jincheng stated at an emergency press conference on Wednesday that the sausage, which tested positive for African swine fever virus, was thrown into an agricultural product disposal bin by a passenger on the Kinmen mini-three links route before entering the country. Quarantine personnel discovered it during cleaning and sent it to relevant institutions for testing. On Wednesday afternoon, sequencing confirmed that the sausage contained African swine fever virus, 100% matching the strain in mainland China. This is the first time the virus strain has been detected in a mainland meat product in Taiwan. Huang said the sausage was identified as "Shuanghui Crispy Sausage," produced by China's largest meat processing company. In early August, the first outbreak in Shenyang was detected in 30 pigs awaiting slaughter at a Shuanghui facility. Huang said this indicates the virus may be widespread in Shuanghui's meat products. He noted that although China has reported 13 provinces with African swine fever to the World Organisation for Animal Health, many cases have not been rigorously tested, leading Huang to believe that "all provinces in mainland China have been affected." As of the 30th, the Council of Agriculture's statistics show 56 African swine fever outbreaks in China. South Korea and Japan have also detected African swine fever virus genes in sausages carried by Chinese travelers. Kinmen and Matsu, with close ties to mainland China, are high-risk areas closely monitored by Taiwan's quarantine authorities. Huang said the Council of Agriculture is strictly preventing the virus from entering via the mini-three links and urged the public not to bring meat products illegally. In this case, the passenger discarded the meat before entering Taiwan, so Taiwan will not be listed as an African swine fever affected area by the World Organisation for Animal Health. Experts say the virus can survive for months in frozen pork, and the mortality rate for infected pigs is 100%. The reported sausage product is from mainland Shuanghui. From the images, the packaging and contents are not in normal sale condition. It is reported that in response to the incident, Shuanghui Group is convening an internal meeting of relevant personnel to verify the authenticity of the information and plans to send personnel to Taiwan immediately to understand the specifics and determine if it is indeed a Shuanghui product. Meanwhile, industry insiders have expressed differing views on Taiwan's testing. Three Major Doubts Raised by the Other Side of the Strait 1. High-Temperature Meat Processing Environment Cannot Sustain African Swine Fever Virus Sausage products are high-temperature meat products. Industry insiders say that according to standard processing procedures, sausages are processed and sterilized at around 90 degrees Celsius for 30 minutes, an environment in which the African swine fever virus cannot survive. Data shows that the African swine fever virus is easily inactivated during cooking; thorough heating kills the virus. According to the head of the Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: heating blood infected with the virus at 55°C for 30 minutes or 60°C for 10 minutes destroys the virus. That is, in daily cooking, if pork is thoroughly cooked, even if the virus is present, it loses infectivity and activity. The above industry insider said that it is still unclear what testing method was used by the other side of the strait and whether sampling was reasonable. This is the first major doubt raised by the incident. 2. Why Not Randomly Test the Same Batch of Sausages The relevant official on the other side claimed that when African swine fever first broke out in mainland China on August 3, Shuanghui meat products were tested and found to contain viral nucleic acid. Shuanghui is the largest meat processing plant in mainland China, so it can be inferred that the virus is widespread in its meat products. From a scientific and rational perspective, the discarded sausage is an isolated case. For scientific testing, one should contact the company or sample the same batch from normal sales channels to test whether the same African swine fever virus infection exists. Using only the test result of an abnormally discarded sausage to conclude that all meat products from a company are problematic seems insufficient and hasty to ordinary people. This is the second major doubt raised by the incident. 3. The Logic That All of Mainland China's Swine Fever Outbreaks Have Spread Is Unreasonable The other side's report also quoted its official as saying that since the outbreak in mainland China less than three months ago, the epidemic has spread from the northeast to the south, faster than any known spread in Europe, leading him to conclude that the epidemic has affected all of mainland China. African swine fever is not a newly discovered virus. First reported in Kenya in 1909, it has persisted in sub-Saharan African countries. In 1957, it spread to Western Europe and Latin America, mostly eradicated promptly, but it remains endemic in Portugal, southwestern Spain, and Sardinia, Italy. Since 2007, African swine fever has occurred, spread, and become epidemic in multiple countries globally, especially in Russia and its neighboring regions. In March 2017, an outbreak occurred in Irkutsk Oblast in the Russian Far East, about 1,000 km from China. Additionally, China is a major pig-raising and pork-consuming country, ranking first globally in pig slaughter, inventory, and pork consumption, with massive annual imports of breeding pigs and pork products and frequent trade with many countries. Moreover, passenger traffic between China and other countries is frequent, with travelers carrying large quantities and varieties of goods. Since this year, multiple African swine fever outbreaks have been reported in mainland China and have been promptly handled. The other side's judgment that all of mainland China's outbreaks have spread based solely on current conditions raises significant questions about the rationality of the logical reasoning. This is the third doubt. The truth of this matter requires Shuanghui's investigation and timely dissemination of relevant information. Consumers need not panic; authoritative experts have stated that African swine fever is not a zoonotic disease. Pigs are the only natural host of the African swine fever virus; other animals generally do not contract it. Although it is lethal to pigs, it poses no harm to humans, making it a typical virus that infects pigs but not humans. Brief Review of Shuanghui Development's Q3 Report: African Swine Fever Slows Growth, High Dividend Exceeds Market Expectations Shuanghui Development disclosed its Q3 report on the evening of October 30. In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating revenue of 36.516 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.01%; net profit of 3.652 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.91%; non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.458 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.35%. In Q3, operating revenue was 12.895 billion yuan, down 2.82% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.267 billion yuan, up 1.6% year-on-year; non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.244 billion yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year. African Swine Fever Affects Company Profits in the Short Term, Benefits Industry Consolidation in the Long Term In the short term, the impact of the African swine fever epidemic on slaughter volume is greater than on per-head profit. After the outbreak, Shuanghui took measures such as raising inspection and quarantine standards for pig purchases, avoiding long-distance trading, and avoiding purchasing pigs from affected areas, which effectively increased the difficulty of purchasing pigs, resulting in a Q3 pig slaughter volume of 3.756 million heads, roughly flat year-on-year. In terms of slaughter profit, due to the widening price gap between affected and non-affected areas, Shuanghui chose to increase slaughter in affected areas to expand market share and limit production in non-affected areas, ensuring overall average per-head profit. Since the African swine fever epidemic is not over, Shuanghui expects continued negative impact in Q4. Since October, with Shanghai lifting restrictions on pork imports from Henan, Shuanghui's long-distance cold-chain transportation capability has clearly benefited. In the long term, the African swine fever incident will help increase the concentration of China's pig slaughter industry, benefiting leading enterprises. Dividend Exceeds Market Expectations, Full-Year Performance Worth Anticipating Shuanghui announced a profit distribution plan based on the total share capital at the end of September 2018, distributing 9.00 yuan (including tax) per 10 shares to all shareholders. Based on the closing price of 21.89 yuan, the dividend yield is as high as 4.11%, marking the second large-scale dividend this year, exceeding market expectations. Source: Compiled from Consumer Daily Exposure, Founder Food Team, Taiwan Media -END-