-01- Today is the fourth day of the twelfth lunar month, and there are still more than 20 days until New Year's Eve. Who knows how many variables there will be in the next 20-plus days? Many companies are preparing to turn the tide this Spring Festival. However, the pandemic and the advocacy of "celebrating the New Year locally" in 29 provinces and regions may have disrupted distributors' stocking plans and pace. It's not the confirmed worst-case scenario that scares us, but the uncertainty of the future. No matter which plan you prepare, there's always a 50% chance you haven't prepared for the actual outcome. The government's advocacy is not strict control. How many people will follow the advice, and how many will insist on returning home, is full of uncertainty. Celebrating the New Year locally benefits central cities; returning home benefits county and township markets. Those who are not planning to return now may change their minds in 10 days. In short, everything is still uncertain. As long as there is uncertainty, many people will prepare for the worst-case scenario. If both central cities and counties prepare for the worst, then it will truly be the worst-case scenario. In this situation, companies need a backup plan. -02- For Spring Festival stocking, you need a Plan B. Plan B is a stocking plan to deal with the uncertainty of "where to celebrate the New Year." Whether to return home depends on the public's perception of the pandemic. If the outbreaks in Hebei and Northeast China are quickly controlled, and lessons are learned, the public will dare to return home, and county management of returnees will be relatively relaxed. Currently, public sentiment is tense, and channel stocking tends to be conservative. Perhaps in half a month, the tension will disappear, and the channel will become active again. The biggest fear is that when the channel becomes active, the window of opportunity for stocking will have closed. My view is that it's better to respond with a "positive conservatism" attitude at this time. The so-called conservatism is the current atmosphere; even if manufacturers are not conservative, distributors and terminals are overall conservative. This is the reality we must face. The so-called positivity means that once the atmosphere improves, can you stock more than expected before the final stocking window closes, and quickly complete channel mobilization and channel sinking? The stocking pace of the past month or more may change rapidly within a few days this year. My estimate is one week. This is a test of manufacturers' and distributors' adaptability and short-term channel mobilization capabilities. In the past, Spring Festival stocking was done in one go, but this year it will definitely be multi-round. The closer to the Spring Festival, the more it tests the channel's short-term mobilization ability. Timing and pace are basic requirements for refined channel management. -03- For Spring Festival sales, you need a Plan C. If the principle for stocking is "positive conservatism," with positivity within conservatism, then for sales, it should be the opposite: "conservative positivity," with conservatism within positivity. "Conservative positivity" faces the scenario of "what if it happens"; "positive conservatism" faces the scenario of "what if it doesn't happen." The worst case is not being unable to return home, but the closure of residential communities and villages, and stores not being able to operate normally. This is catastrophic for business. A nationwide "lockdown" like last Spring Festival will certainly not happen again, but regional small-scale "lockdowns" are very likely. Last Spring Festival, after the "lockdown," businesses initially solved problems through community groups, and later some made efforts through e-commerce. Indeed, this has actually happened in Shijiazhuang. If stores really cannot operate, the best remedy is to give stores a cloud store, making them "dual stores." Dual store = physical store + cloud store Lidu launched its cloud store in the second half of 2019, and it proved very useful during the pandemic. As long as there is a cloud store, even if the physical store is closed, sales can still be made through the cloud store, and then delivered to homes via "contactless delivery." So, does every company need to equip its stores with cloud stores? Not necessarily. But once the worst-case scenario occurs, you must be able to react quickly and act immediately. My suggestion is that manufacturers can first pilot a few cloud stores, explore, and grasp the rules. When the worst happens, they can quickly increase the number of cloud stores. If there is a small-area "lockdown," wherever it is closed, cloud stores can be used there. This is a strategy to handle all changes with an unchanging approach. -04- During the pandemic last year, I repeatedly mentioned a term: opportunity window. A window period is like a village you pass; once you miss it, there's no next one. Once this time period passes, you enter a new window. Opportunity windows are fleeting; once lost, they may never come again. The window period tests sensitivity to the front line, adaptability, and rapid response capability. Sudden events like the pandemic are problems for everyone. But since it's a problem for everyone, it's also an opportunity. Because most people lack the ability to solve sudden problems. Opportunities belong to those who react fastest; when the opportunity window closes, the opportunity disappears. The pandemic changes quickly and unpredictably. Thus, many business opportunity windows will appear. Facing consecutive opportunity windows, you must have short-cycle operational capabilities: rapid response, immediate action. When the pandemic stabilized in March 2020, many said their sales were better than usual because they seized the opportunity window. But opportunities arise at the front line (organizational boundary), yet the discovery of opportunities often belongs to top management, and organizational mobilization depends even more on top management. Source: Teacher Liu's Digital New Marketing (ID: liuchunxiong1964), Author: Liu Chunxiong Tips will be paid 400-2000 yuan once the tip is adopted.