The heartfelt slogans of youth-oriented small bottle baijiu brands like Jiangxiaobai still echo, but how long has it been since you last had a small bottle? After the 2012 'alcohol ban', the baijiu sector entered a deep adjustment. During the industry's confusion, Jiangxiaobai emerged, attracting major baijiu companies to follow the youth, fashion, personality, and fun route of small bottle baijiu. At that time, it was widely believed that Jiangxiaobai could crack the rigid baijiu market and represent the industry in embracing young people, making small bottles a mainstream form. However, just a few years later, Jiangxiaobai's myth as a leading small bottle player faded, and the entire small bottle market nearly ceased. In the previous industry recovery focused on high-end products, small bottles were pushed into a corner. In contrast, bottled baijiu (guangping jiu), emphasizing quality and value for money and aligning with the consumption downgrade trend, became a market hotspot.

From Popularity to Stagnation Small bottle baijiu refers to small-packaged baijiu products with a capacity of 100-150 ml per bottle, generally priced no more than 30 yuan per bottle, offering advantages like portability and direct drinking. Before 2012, the market was mainly represented by traditional small bottles like Hongxing Erguotou and Jingjiu. Among them, Xiaojingjiu attracted a large middle-aged audience with its health and wellness features. In the second half of 2012, Jiangxiaobai swept the nation with its heartfelt texts, flashy marketing, and youthful packaging. Since then, more and more distilleries began seeking business opportunities in youth-oriented small bottles. According to industry statistics, after Jiangxiaobai, nearly a thousand small bottle brands emerged nationwide, including high-end baijiu companies like Wuliangye (000858.SZ), Yanghe, Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) with their small bottle products. However, despite many entrants, these new products showed insufficient momentum after a few years of 'glory', and the small bottle market still failed to produce a category giant. According to public information from Jiangxiaobai, from 2017 to 2019, sales revenue exceeded 1 billion yuan, 2 billion yuan, and approached 3 billion yuan respectively. In November 2021, the founder of Jiangxiaobai gave a vague figure of over 2 billion yuan in an interview. This shows that Jiangxiaobai's small bottle business growth nearly stalled, and its long-rumored IPO plans were shelved. Traditional small bottles like Hongxing Erguotou, Xiaojingjiu, and Xiaolangjiu still have a market but have not broken regional limitations, failing to achieve broader customer coverage. For example, Xiaolangjiu's sales exceeded 2 billion yuan in 2015; in 2017, the company's chairman Wang Junlin planned to exceed 10 billion yuan in sales within three years. However, its prospectus showed that in 2020, the combined sales of Langpai Tequ and Xiaolangjiu were only 2.565 billion yuan. Although small bottles have been quite desolate in recent years, the neighboring bottled baijiu market (mostly 500ml) is thriving. Traditional products like Wuliangye Jianzhuang and Huanggai Bofen are selling better with age, and the popularity of the 'ration wine' market has given rise to new forces like Guangliang in this subcategory. High-end baijiu company Zhenjiu Lidu (06979.HK) has also boosted its performance with high-end bottled baijiu. According to China Alcoholic Drinks Association data, the bottled baijiu market size was approximately 98.8 billion yuan in 2021, and with a compound annual growth rate of 14%, it will exceed 150 billion yuan by 2024. It is reasonable to speculate that large bottles, not small bottles, have contributed significantly to the growth of the bottled baijiu industry.

Trapped in a Small Market The biggest pain point for small bottles is their difficulty entering the mainstream banquet and gift markets, being limited to immediate consumption scenarios like dining. During Jiangxiaobai's rise, it closely followed Snow Beer's channels, deeply binding small restaurants and convenience stores, even placing products directly on tables, with impressive ground promotion capabilities. However, the special three years (pandemic) severely impacted the catering industry. Data shows that in 2022, annual catering revenue was 4,394.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.3%. Restricted consumption scenarios directly limited the space for the small bottle category. In contrast, bottled baijiu, which emphasizes quality and value for money and suits various consumption scenarios, was relatively less affected during the special period. The fundamental reason is that the small bottle category itself has inherent flaws, lacking sustained appeal to both channels and end consumers. From the consumer perspective, small bottles are small in quantity but expensive, offering low cost performance. When the halo created by traffic gradually dissipates and consumers return to rationality, they only taste small bottles briefly. For example, when you convert the price of a small bottle to a large bottle equivalent, Jiangxiaobai is not cheap at all, comparable to popular large single products. But in terms of quality, it is incomparable. Imagine 59 yuan for 500ml versus 25 yuan for 100ml of Jianzhuang Rongguang; for double the price, you can taste five times the amount of baijiu. Most consumers know how to choose. Guizhou Moutai's (600519.SH) small bottle Feitian Moutai was previously priced high, even speculated to 700 yuan per bottle. Later, as the market saturated, prices kept falling, now basically equivalent to the 399 yuan per bottle purchase price on i-Moutai. From the channel perspective, small bottles have low unit prices and lack reasonable profit margins, making it difficult to motivate distributors. For many baijiu companies, small bottles are more of a supplement to the bottled baijiu market, without much investment. In recent years, many small bottle brands have actively sought new profit spaces. Jiangxiaobai has transformed from a small bottle brand into a large beverage group with multiple categories, with Meijian, Jiangji Winery, and Luxi Laojiu as its sub-brands.

Industry Focus Shift So, do small bottles still have a chance? Currently, the baijiu industry is in a transition period between old and new cycles, similar to the background when brands like Jiangxiaobai rose. During the industry adjustment from 2013 to 2015, the baijiu market was bleak, and eye-catching small bottles seized this window to rise rapidly. Now, everyone is eager to try again. Since this year, Jiangxiaobai has launched a strategic renewal plan for small bottles; Jinsha Liquor released 'Jinsha Xiaojiang' in 150ml bottles at a market price of 40 yuan; Shanghai Guijiu launched a new small bottle product, Zuijiu, in 135ml bottles. However, similar paths lead to different directions. Around 2016, the baijiu industry experienced a recovery focused on high-end products, and small bottles fell into a stagnation period. When the momentum of high-end baijiu was exhausted, weak market sales caused a vicious cycle of inventory backlog and price inversion. Under the general trend of baijiu consumption downgrade, the hotspot shifted to bottled baijiu. According to sales data from an e-commerce platform, Jianzhuang Rongguang 500ml bottles have sales over 1000+, while 100ml bottles have only double-digit sales; the same is true for the popular Guangliang liquor in recent years, where in its Tmall flagship store, the better-selling products are also 500ml bottles rather than 100ml bottles. Zhenjiu, a small sauce-flavor baijiu giant that was already in a growth crisis, also saw significant performance improvement in the first half of this year due to the hot sales of high-end bottled baijiu like Zhen 30 Standard Edition, Zhen 30 Grand Gold Medal Commemorative Edition, and 2012 Zhenbao Vintage. For young people, they are clearly more willing to buy low-alcohol drinks with richer flavors, higher packaging aesthetics, and a better understanding of youth. In recent years, the low-alcohol beverage market in China has maintained rapid growth. The '2023 China Baijiu Market Mid-Year Research Report' clearly states that in 2021, the low-alcohol beverage market size was 15-20 billion yuan, expected to reach 75 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 30%. Among them, Meijian, a low-alcohol brand launched by Jiangxiaobai after its small bottle business was hindered, achieved retail sales exceeding 2.5 billion yuan in 2022 through scenario-based marketing, IP building, atmosphere creation, and offline bars. Its growth rate and current influence may have surpassed that of Jiangxiaobai. Truly, losing at sunrise and gaining at sunset. Currently, traditional liquor companies, emerging brands, and enterprises from food, internet, and other industries are all entering the low-alcohol market, making this segment increasingly lively. Middle-aged people seeking cost performance are taken by bottled baijiu, and young people who enjoy self-pleasing experiences are attracted to low-alcohol drinks, leaving the market space for small bottles increasingly narrow.