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These days, all of North China has turned into an oven.

According to the Central Meteorological Observatory, under the influence of a warm air mass, since the 26th, parts of North China and the Huang-Huai region have experienced temperatures above 35°C, and the heat has not let up. Today, ten places in Hebei exceeded 40°C, most of Beijing saw maximum temperatures above 40°C, with some areas exceeding 42°C, triggering a red alert for high temperatures. Then, extreme maximum temperatures broke historical records.

The high temperatures have greatly increased the atmosphere of social unity and friendliness, because the streets are full of acquaintances (a pun: "熟人" means both "acquaintances" and "well-cooked people").

Braving the 42°C heat, Yidu Jun (the author) climbs up to complain: why is the weather so hot this year?

El Niño, basically

Historical data shows that since 1951, the highest extreme temperature observed at the Southern Suburb Observatory in Beijing in May was 38.3°C on May 14, 1968. Today, temperatures in some parts of Beijing have soared to 42°C. Not only is the smog off the charts, but the temperature is too. Yidu Jun checked: today's temperature in Beijing is the same as in Turpan.

If it's this hot in May, how will we survive the coming days?

As an adult, the editor believes that even if we die of heat, we should die knowing why. In fact, as early as last year, scientists warned that this year would be very hot.

At the end of last year, experts from the State Oceanic Administration monitored that the subsurface temperature in the eastern Pacific was abnormally high, indicating that this year might be a relatively strong El Niño year.

Global monitoring data also brings no good news. According to global long-term weather prediction results, 2014 could become the hottest year on record. All this is due to El Niño, which will bring more heat to the atmosphere. In February this year, while the British were still shivering from cold, their scientists predicted a 75% chance of El Niño occurring this year and reminded Britons to prepare sunglasses and other gear.

A once-in-500-years heat

If it's just the uncreative explanation of El Niño, you might not be satisfied.

According to research by experts from the Institute of Geology and Geophysics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, climate changes follow a natural cycle of about 500 years. The recent global warming over the past century happens to coincide with the warm phase of the latest 500-year cycle.

How did they discover this? Scientists from the Institute of Geology and Geophysics studied the annual varve sediments of Xiaolongwan Maar Lake in the Longgang volcanic area of Northeast China, analyzing climate changes over 5,350 years before 2005.

They found that in the pollen content changes in the sediments, two types of pollen waxed and waned: pine pollen, which suits cold climates, and oak pollen, which suits warm climates. Every 500 years or so, there is a peak in the increase and decrease of these two pollens in the sediments.

According to their research, around AD 200, 700, 1200, and 1800 were the coldest periods.

This research result matches historical records. In Chinese history, from the mid-16th century to the mid-19th century, i.e., from the Ming Jiajing period to the Qing Daoguang period, there were large-scale extreme cold weather events, which scientists call the "Little Ice Age." At that time, rivers even froze in Jiangnan, and citrus in Jiangxi was largely killed by the cold.

The above is just to prove that these scientists' research is credible. The key point is below: their research shows that we are in a 500-year warming cycle, and this year happens to be the peak of this warm cycle, i.e., the hottest year.

A super El Niño plus the peak of the warm cycle, double the effect, making it impossible not to be hot.

Along with the heat comes price increases

There is even worse news than the hot weather: agricultural product prices are set to rise.

On March 25, according to the latest report from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the probability of an El Niño event in 2014 increased. Such weather could cause droughts in Southeast Asia and Australia, and floods in South America, damaging rice, wheat, and sugarcane crops.

In 1982-1983 and 1997-1998, two super El Niño events caused worldwide crop reductions, with maximum reductions of about 20%. The 2009 El Niño event drove global sugar prices to a 30-year high.

So, we might have to face a summer that is both expensive and hot.

However, according to the research by Chinese Academy of Sciences experts, this year is already the hottest in the warm cycle. In the coming years, the climate will tend to cool, and the upcoming century-long cooling cycle may mitigate global warming caused by human activities.

Editor's PS:

It seems that this year, beer sellers, ice cream sellers, beverage sellers, air conditioner sellers, mat sellers, fan sellers, watermelon sellers... are all happy.

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About us: WeChat name: New Distribution Professional Consulting for FMCG Distributors Account intro: 20 years of experience in FMCG distributor operations and management, professionally targeting distributor internal management.

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