Room-Temperature Lactic Acid Bacteria Drinks That Treat Consumers as Fools Are Doomed: Decoding the Key Person Law in Marketing

Why do some products that fool the majority still fail? Why do some products thrive despite widespread criticism? Marketing should influence not the majority, but a few key individuals!

The beverage industry has had a tough time in recent years. Master Kong's decline has been talked about for years, and it fell another 10%+ in the first half of this year. Recently, it was revealed that Wahaha's 2015 revenue plummeted from over 70 billion to just over 40 billion.

Beverages are the most market-oriented industry, always fiercely competitive. But now even the big players are struggling, and the smaller ones are even more anxious. So everyone is looking for category opportunities, hoping to carve out a path and grow against the trend. Since around 2014, many companies have rushed into "lactic acid bacteria drinks."

Suddenly, drinks with names like "Yi," "Huo," and "Jun" appeared endlessly, often claiming hundreds of billions of probiotics. By that measure, Wang Jianlin's "one billion target" seems too small.

Probiotic drinks are divided into live bacteria and sterilized types. The former includes Yakult, Mengniu's Youyi C, Yili's Meiyitian, and also Wei Chuan and Guangming, all of which are refrigerated. Live bacteria lactic acid drinks have developed rapidly in recent years. Yakult claimed to have done 10 billion in 2015, but insiders say it's far more. Moreover, Yakult's production layout hasn't covered the whole country; only about half of China can buy Yakult. This product, which has done over 10 billion, is still just a "regional brand."

The other type is the sterilized lactic acid bacteria drink, which Lao Miao wants to tear apart today. Of course, companies prefer to call it "room-temperature lactic acid bacteria drink." Ten years ago, Prince Milk was the earliest star product in this category. In recent years, with the entry of famous companies like Wahaha and Junlebao, and the heavy promotion of products like "Xiaoyang," a typhoon of "room-temperature lactic acid bacteria drinks" has swept the market. It's said there are over 80 named brands. Some dairy companies that originally made active lactic acid bacteria drinks, like Mengniu and Guangming, also make room-temperature versions while promoting low-temperature products.

Anyone with a basic understanding of probiotics knows that the "bacteria" in room-temperature lactic acid bacteria drinks are killed. The "hundreds of billions" claimed in advertising is just a gimmick; they have no physiological effect of probiotics. As a friend put it, they contain "hundreds of billions of probiotic corpses."

From a nutritional standpoint, lactic acid bacteria drinks have low milk content, with protein only around 1%. Also, due to taste requirements, the sugar content often exceeds 10%, and the amount of various food additives is not small compared to most beverages.

A boss planned to launch a room-temperature lactic acid bacteria drink and asked Lao Miao for advice. My answer was that this product, whose function is just a gimmick and whose nutritional and health value is relatively low, should not be launched. If you really want to, you can launch a live bacteria type and build it up region by region.

The boss immediately mocked Lao Miao for being pedantic. As an industry insider, he knew that live bacteria are effective, but they require cold chain distribution, making it hard to recruit distributors and expand regions. If it's room-temperature, taking advantage of the current lactic acid bacteria trend, you can recruit dealers nationwide. It's short, flat, and fast. With advertising, you might build a national market. More importantly, ordinary consumers can't tell the difference between "sterilized and live bacteria"!

Often, marketers say, "My product is sold to ordinary consumers. It doesn't matter if an industry insider doesn't approve. My product is sold to rural people. It doesn't matter if a city person doesn't approve." But is that really true? If ordinary consumers can't tell the difference, can you build the market?

Let's start with examples.

Older marketers should remember the "nucleic acid scam" of the past. Products like Zhen'ao Nucleic Acid, which were approved by the state for immunity enhancement, were exaggerated as miracle drugs: they claimed to nourish and regulate genes and cure almost everything. They used a bunch of Nobel Prize-winning scientists as endorsements, with expert lectures and advertorials as the main promotion. Not only could ordinary consumers not identify the scam, but even some with professional backgrounds were fooled. But there were always those who saw through it, like Fang Zhouzi. Then a special report in Southern Weekly exposed the nucleic acid trick, and all the brands were wiped out.

That's too old. Let's talk about something recent. Enzymes were hot a couple of years ago, right? "Weight loss, bowel cleansing, digestion aid"—but now they've quieted down. Why? Because they don't work! Why don't they work? Because the so-called enzymes are actually traditional enzymes, nothing new. Their component is protein, and their physiological role is as a biological catalyst. Once eaten, they are digested into amino acids, no different from eating protein powder. Of course, they don't have the advertised effects!

Another example: whole grain biscuits are a good concept, but the product has never taken off. The taste of whole grains is poor. To improve the taste, the usual practice is to add a lot of vegetable oil or even non-dairy creamer, which greatly increases calories. They are junk food under the guise of health. Although most consumers don't have the habit of reading the nutrition facts on the packaging, it's the few who pay attention to the ingredient list that have kept this subcategory from being widely accepted.

Need more examples? L-carnitine, maca, Master Kong mineral water—there are plenty.

At this point, many readers may wonder: Why do some products that are widely criticized thrive, like Brain Platinum and Hengyuanxiang? Some products are clearly traps set by operators for consumers, yet consumers happily fall in and enjoy it, like some cosmetics, luxury goods, and pyramid schemes. And other unlucky ones can fool most consumers, but some unrelated people feel unhappy, and their products fail, like the examples above.

This involves an extremely important, perhaps the most important, law in marketing—the Key Person Law.

Let's first meet a super genius: the sociology master, founder of the Diffusion of Innovations theory, main driver of Silicon Valley's star-making movement, and teacher of Steve Jobs—Everett Rogers. This sociologist, who should be remembered by marketers, has no title that can fully reflect his impact on society, because he contributed what may be the most important sociological theory to date—the Diffusion of Innovations theory.

This theory explains in detail why a new thing is accepted or rejected. What are the rules for people accepting new things? How can innovations be more easily accepted? How can we avoid excellent innovations being left in the cold for a long time? Driven by his theories and methods, countless innovations have been recognized, accepted, and even changed the world. The Diffusion of Innovations theory is widely used in communication, journalism, public welfare, economics, medical sociology, education, and other fields. It is even used to create and stop rumors. Of course, it also has extremely important applications in marketing.

Marketing guru Kotler, in his "bible"—Marketing Management—devotes a large section to the Diffusion of Innovations theory. Based on this theory, Gladwell published the famous bestseller The Tipping Point in 2000, which detailed the phenomenon of social and commercial trends and gave key methods for creating them. Gladwell was thus hailed as the "Peter Drucker of the 21st century" and was named one of Time magazine's 100 most influential people in the world. But to be blunt, The Tipping Point only scratches the surface of the Diffusion of Innovations theory.

In the Diffusion of Innovations theory, Rogers divides people into five categories based on their attitudes and behaviors toward new things: innovators or tryers, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards.

Tryers, Rogers says, are "the most adventurous group."

In most people's eyes, "tryers" are outliers, "unreliable," even unwelcome. Their acceptance cannot influence more people, and may even have negative effects. The famous behavioral scientist Kerry Patterson holds a more extreme view: if you want an innovation to be accepted by everyone, the first thing to do is "find these innovators and avoid them like the plague. If they accept your new idea, it will surely die."

According to the Diffusion of Innovations, this group accounts for about 2.5% of the population. Due to China's large population base, the absolute number is also considerable. In marketing, "tryers" are a love-hate role for many companies. When a new product with an innovative concept appears, after advertising and distribution, they quickly come to buy. Just as the company increases production and promotion, they suddenly stop buying. That's the contribution of tryers. Their rapid acceptance often gives companies and intermediaries the illusion that their product and communication strategies are correct, often leading to major investment decision errors, overcapacity, and promotion failures.

Tryers buy your product not because you are good or right, but just because you are "new." They want to try something new, and after trying, they move on to something else. Your subsequent market pull and push have little effect on them.

The second category: early adopters. Rogers says they are "typical localites," meaning they have strong ties to a stable social system. They are considered best able to grasp the public opinion direction of that system, so in communication studies they are called "opinion leaders."

The term "opinion leader" is not accurate enough, even misleading. As the most important group in marketing, their characteristics are as follows.

1. "Maven" is the most important characteristic.

Around us, there are always such mavens who give valuable advice when we don't know how to choose. If you want to buy a computer, you might ask the company network administrator for advice. If you want to eat snacks, there will be a "foodie" girl with a desk full of food, drooling as she describes how delicious a product is. You might see a mother of a two-year-old talking about parenting with a new mother, a group of elderly people listening to another old person enthusiastically sharing their recovery history and health tips, or a teenager proudly showing off his new smartphone to his friends.

We live in an era deeply influenced by mavens. They may be professionals, like doctors for disease recovery, lawyers for law, teachers for children's education, but more often they are the person in the small circle who knows the most about that type of knowledge. Remember a key concept in consumer behavior marketing: marketing relies on information. Undoubtedly, the person with the most information is the most important person.

Different industries and products have different maven groups. You may be a maven for certain products or industries, a "passerby" for others, and a "newbie" for still others. But all mavens share a common trait: they like to actively collect relevant information and take pride in it.

2. Sharing and helping others is the second most important characteristic of early adopters.

As social animals, sharing and helping others is human instinct, but early adopters are undoubtedly the most outstanding. On one hand, they share information and help others, gaining a sense of self-worth. On the other hand, their attitude toward new information is both open and cautious. They believe that the respect they receive in their social network comes from their helpfulness and maven role in specific areas. Correct adoption of new things can strengthen their authority, while mistakes can lower their status. This is why early consumers are both enthusiastic and cautious about sharing. Once they decide to adopt, many adopters have strong persuasive power and can introduce your product in an engaging way.

Early adopters' acceptance of new things is higher than ordinary individuals but far lower than tryers. Whether they accept is the first key factor in marketing success or failure. That's why we frequently see the phenomenon of "leading one step makes you a pioneer, leading two steps makes you a martyr."

3. Discourse power.

Early consumers' discourse power only applies to specific social systems and specific fields. This power generally comes from the "maven" and "sharing and helping" characteristics mentioned above, and also from gaps in income, status, culture, or geography. Those with lower income look to those with higher income, those with lower education look to those with higher education, third-tier cities look to second-tier cities, and vice versa. If the gap is too large, it won't hold, because once it's too large, they leave their specific social system and lose their discourse power.

The Diffusion of Innovations theory holds that ideally, early adopters account for about 12.5% of the target population. In marketing, they are the most critical group. Capturing early consumers means capturing the entire market.

The third and fourth categories: early majority and late majority. They are ordinary target people, numerous. Rogers believes that ideally, they account for over 70% of the total. "Don't be the first to eat the crab, and don't be the last to abandon outdated ideas" is the psychological portrayal of most people. They are heavily influenced by public opinion and groups, have some interaction within the group, but lack the ability to guide public opinion.

They are the main force of the target consumer group. Making them accept and approve is the ultimate goal of marketing. But influencing early adopters is the more critical means.

The fifth category: laggards. In marketing, laggards not only refer to those who are conservative and slow to accept new things, but also those in the target consumer group who don't identify with your product or brand philosophy, or are loyal fans of competitors. For competitors, they might be early adopters. To some extent, they are "other opinion leaders." "Fruit fans" are early consumers for Apple, but for Samsung, they might be laggards.

Rogers believes laggards account for 15% of the population, which is very large. Getting them to accept your product is, in most cases, simply impossible. So wise companies don't spend too much effort persuading laggards. A more clever approach is to directly target laggards as a foil, which will help your product be accepted by the market.

After understanding Rogers' five-category classification, readers should understand why those products that fool ordinary consumers and treat them as fools don't last long. They find it hard to find early adopters who are "mavens," "sharing," and "have discourse power." Their market can only be pulled by the company's own resources. Unfortunately, some of their laggards are early adopters of competitors, who will find various opportunities to attack them and destroy the influence they've built with their own resources. To add, the guy who said "room-temperature lactic acid bacteria is a bottle of hundreds of billions of probiotic corpses" is a loyal customer of low-temperature lactic acid bacteria.

Early adopters are not the main body of the market, but they are the only important group in the market. How to use targeted marketing means to face them so that the market can start spontaneously? Stay tuned for Lao Miao's next article, which will continue to tear apart using Master Rogers' innovation diffusion theory.

-END-

The best FMCG distributor learning platform in China Focusing on providing professional, practical, and useful tutorials for companies and distributors Committed to helping Chinese FMCG distributors grow rapidly The most professional and practical knowledge base in the FMCG industry